Georgia Bulldogs vs. Missouri Tigers Odds
| Georgia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14 -115 | 56 -110o / -110u | -700 |
| Missouri Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14 -105 | 56 -110o / -110u | +500 |
By Dan Keegan
We enjoy getting our staff together and creating these “mega guides” for you — analyzing the biggest game or two of each weekend collaboratively as an entire staff.
These pieces tend to feature the pinnacle teams in the sport: Alabama and LSU. USC and Oregon. Texas and Oklahoma. Notre Dame and Ohio State.
It's a credit to the job Eli Drinkwitz has done at Missouri that his team has crashed the coveted Action Network Mega Guide treatment. I mean, 14th in the AP Poll and 12th in the CFP Rankings is cool and all, but the Action Network Mega Guide nod? That’s rarified air.
How did the Tigers elevate to this level?
The offense has leapt to 20th in SP+ this season after a miserable showing last year. Drinkwitz has given up play-calling, turning over the reins of his offense to Kirby Moore, a bright young mind whose brother, Kellen, is a lauded NFL coordinator.
Quarterback Brady Cook is healthy and massively improved from last season. Slot receiver Luther Burden III is one of the best players in the sport as a true sophomore.
These are good times in Columbia, but a lot of programs have had good days that ended in misery at the hands of Kirby Smart’s destructive Dawgs.
The two-time defending champs have played with their food a few times this season. But they chewed up and spit out Florida and Kentucky, their two toughest opponents of the year.
The defense doesn’t have as many stars in the front seven as the past few seasons, and the offense is without all-galaxy tight end Brock Bowers. But the Dawgs are still college football royalty.
Missouri’s hungry, veteran outfit thinks it has what it takes to dethrone the Bulldogs, especially after it gave Georgia a scare on Faurot Field last season.
Does our staff of 12 college football experts agree? We polled them to try to find some consensus; our team feels strongly that Missouri will cover in a game that goes over the total. Let’s get into the matchup.
Georgia vs. Missouri Spread
Missouri +15.5
By Dan Keegan
Our staff likes Missouri to cover, with seven out of 12 on the underdog.
The Tigers have what it takes to keep the ballgame close in Athens. This team did it last year, falling by only one score (26-22) in a game it led for most of it, and Missouri is much improved this season.
Mizzou quarterback Brady Cook underwent shoulder surgery in the offseason, and his passing has vastly improved. His 77.4 QBR ranks 16th in the country, and he has thrown 15 touchdowns to only three interceptions.
His wide receiver room is one of the best in the country: Luther Burden III was a top recruit and is playing like it. Veteran transfers Theo Wease (Oklahoma) and Mookie Cooper (Ohio State) were also former blue-chippers and are now finding a second life in Kirby Moore’s offense.
All told, they power a pass offense that is seventh in the country in Success Rate.
While the reborn Tiger offense captures the headlines, the defense is quietly good. This is a veteran and experienced unit, with multi-year starters at almost every position.
Cornerbacks Kris Abrams-Draine and Ennis Rakestraw are one of the best duos in the country, and the secondary’s assignment will be easier without Brock Bowers running routes.
Blake Baker’s unit ranks top-30 in both Havoc and Success Rate, but it's susceptible to big plays, ranking 94th in explosives allowed.
On paper, Georgia’s pass attack is not equipped to match Missouri’s biggest weakness, ranking 111th in passing explosives.
Georgia has enough talent to name its score against most opponents, even in league play. But the Bulldogs have slept through a few games this season and have a record of just 2-6 against the spread.
They're also coming off a tough rivalry game, while Missouri is well-rested after a bye.
Kirby Smart has built the best program in the country and is favored by a huge number even against a team as good as these Missouri Tigers for a reason.
But our staff believes Eli Drinkwitz has his team equipped to go between the hedges and keep this contest within shouting distance.
Georgia vs. Missouri Over/Under
Over 54.5 | 9 Picks |
Pass | 1 Pick |
Under 54.5 | 2 Picks |
Over 54.5
Editor's Note: The Georgia vs. Missouri total sat at 54.5 when our staff was polled.
By Dan Keegan
Our staff feels even more strongly about the total going over 54.5.
We already covered the breakout Missouri Tiger offense. Kirby Moore and Eli Drinkwitz are proven schemers and will have designed an excellent game plan to create scoring opportunities.
But they're not even the best overall offense in this game. Despite Georgia’s struggle to create big pass plays, this offense excels in everything else.
Carson Beck and Mike Bobo have stepped in seamlessly at quarterback and coordinator, respectively, for the departing Stetson Bennett and Todd Monken.
Beck has thrown for 14 touchdowns to only four interceptions on the season, with an 81.8 QBR — good for 10th in the country. He's protected by maybe the most talented offensive line in the country, and even without Brock Bowers, he has proven SEC wideouts in Ladd McConkey, Rara Thomas and Dominic Lovett — a Missouri transfer.
Georgia is averaging almost 44 points a game in October, and the total has gone over in five straight ballgames.
For all the down-to-down strength of Missouri’s defense, it does have two situational weaknesses where Georgia’s offense thrives. The Tigers are 99th in FBS in Points per Ppportunity and 94th in Success Rate on third and fourth downs.
Georgia’s offense ranks 13th and third in attacking those situations, respectively. The Dawgs will be able to extend drives against Missouri and finish them with touchdowns.
We think these two teams will go blow-for-blow all day in a humdinger between the hedges.
More Ways to Bet Georgia vs. Missouri
Both Teams to Score 20 or More
-110 · Play to -120
By Brett Pund
This is a matchup where I;m expecting points from two surging offenses — but I don’t like that the total has already gone through the key number of 55.
My research led me to the prop market where I love this play being offered at BetMGM of Both Teams to Score 20 or More at -110 odds.
One of the key reasons for this play is the advantage both offenses have in Finishing Drives.
If you start first with Georgia, the Bulldogs are inside the top 40 of most defensive metrics, except for Finishing Drives, where they're 68th.
This bodes well for a Missouri offense that's 24th in the country in the same statistic. However, this is the same Tigers squad that's 99th on defense compared to 13th for Georgia in Finishing Drives offensively.
If you look at how this prop would have done this season, it would have cashed in four of the last five Bulldogs’ games. This even came against much lesser opposition in UAB, Auburn and Vanderbilt.
Meanwhile, both teams have reached 20 points in five of the previous six for Missouri, including the only two road trips against Power 5 opposition at Kentucky and Vanderbilt. This Georgia offense will be much tougher on Saturday.
Ladd McConkey Over 56.5 Receiving Yards
Play to 60.5
By Alex Hinton
Ladd McConkey has played in just five games this season, as he missed three games with a back injury. As a result, he has hit this line just twice this season. However, it's happened in the past two games.
Last week, he exploded for 135 yards and a touchdown against Florida. That was also the first Georgia game played without Brock Bowers.
Now, if you read last week’s staff player prop’s column, you will know that I backed quarterback Carson Beck’s passing yards despite Bowers’ absence. Beck cleared it and finished with 315 yards, though Billy Napier’s fourth-down decisions gave Georgia a few short fields and made it more sweaty than necessary.
This week, Beck’s line is between 287 and 292 depending on the book. I lean toward the over, as Georgia has more of a passing offense this season.
However, if Georgia pulls away and is running out the clock in the second half, he could finish closer to 275 yards. I prefer to back McConkey this week with what I believe is a more exploitable line.
McConkey is averaging 16.1 yards per reception this season, so he would need four receptions to hit this line. He has four catches in each of the past two games. It would help if he hauls in a big play, and he has receptions of 31 and 54 yards over the last two weeks.
Another 50-yard reception would be much appreciated because he would likely then only need one more catch.
