The Georgia Southern Eagles (2-2) and Georgia State Panthers (2-1) will clash in an interstate Sun Belt clash on Saturday afternoon at 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
What was once known as "Modern Day Hate Day" is now officially called "The Georgia Grown Bowl" as Georgia Grown has become the matchup's official sponsor.
Both teams are vying for the Commissioner's Cup, presented by the state of Georgia's Agriculture Commissioner to the winning team after the matchup.
The Eagles are coming off a 52-13 defeat at Ole Miss, and the Panthers are entering the game off of a bye week.
Oddsmakers originally had the Panthers as underdogs, but the line gradually moved them to 3.5-point favorites. With Hurricane Helene's uncertainty, the total is sitting at 58.5.
Here's my Georgia Southern vs. Georgia State prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 28.
Georgia Southern vs Georgia State Odds
| Georgia Southern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -108 | 57.5 -112o / -108u | +124 |
| Georgia State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -112 | 57.5 -112o / -108u | -148 |
- Georgia Southern vs Georgia State spread: Georgia State -3
- Georgia Southern vs Georgia State over/under: 57.5 points
- Georgia Southern vs Georgia State moneyline: Georgia State -148
- Georgia Southern vs Georgia State pick:Georgia Southern +3.5
My Georgia State vs Georgia Southern best bet is on the Eagles spread, with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Georgia Southern vs Georgia State Betting Preview
Georgia Southern Football
The Eagles' start to the season has been strange. They enter the game with a 2-2 record.
Last weekend, they were completely outmatched against the Rebels, managing only 198 yards of total offense.
What killed the Eagles last weekend was their inability to convert on 3rd down, as they were 3-for-17 in that department. They couldn’t get their ground game going, which has been an issue all season.
Quarterback JC French has six touchdowns and one interception with a 63% completion rate but has only managed to throw for 860 yards in four games. He's protected the ball well, but he'll have to be better moving forward with a non-existent rushing attack.
The Eagles rank 105th nationally in Rush Success Rate and 132nd in Line Yards. The offensive line has been bullied.
However, the Eagles rank 15th in Finishing Drives. When their offense gets past the 40-yard line, they have done an excellent job of scoring a touchdown instead of settling for a field goal.
There is a reason why the Eagles have quickly flipped to underdogs, but I think many sharps are overrating the Panthers thus far.
Despite ranking 105th in Havoc allowed, the Eagles' passing attack has a path to success on Saturday – the Panthers rank 115th in Pass Success Rate allowed.
The defensive metrics are also ugly, but I am one to play devil's advocate. Two of the four matchups the Eagles have played thus far have been against Boise State and Ole Miss, which have offenses among the top 25 in the nation.
They allowed 56 points to Boise State and 52 to the Rebels last week, which will deflate their defensive metrics.
That being said, the Eagles rank outside the top 100 in the following defensive metrics:
- Rush and Pass Success Rate
- HAVOC
- Finishing Drives
- Line Yards
- Quality Drives
Although that seems alarming, the Panthers are nowhere near as talented as the Broncos or Rebels. In their other two matchups, the Eagles allowed 17 points to Nevada and 14 to South Carolina State.
Both offenses are not very good, but it's a good data point that recognizes that the defense may not be as big of a pushover as many deem it to be. The Eagles also rank 30th in PFF’s Coverage grades and have a massive special teams edge.
There is a path for the Eagles to cover the number here, and I expect a much more valiant effort here after being embarrassed by the Rebels.
Georgia State Football
The Panthers are riding high off of a big upset victory against Vandy before their bye week, and many believe they are the much stronger team in the matchup.
Given how awful the Eagles played last weekend, I was not surprised to see them flip to a favorite.
The Panthers had a shot to beat Georgia Tech in Week 1, so theoretically, they could have been undefeated entering the matchup.
But let's hold our horses for a second.
Offensively, quarterback Christian Veilleux has been solid through three games. He has 664 passing yards with 3 Passing touchdowns and an interception. Due to his performance, the Panthers rank 59th in Pass Success Rate and draw a great matchup against a struggling secondary.
Besides the passing attack, the Panthers have had mixed results on the ground. They rank 86th in Rush Success Rate and 89th in Line Yards. The offensive line should have the edge here, ranking 45th in Havoc allowed against an Eagles team that doesn’t create any.
I have questions defensively despite the stout rush defense thus far.
The Eagles can not run the ball anyway, so I do not think their edge in that department will be a factor.
Despite being stout against the run, the Panthers rank 102nd in Line Yards, so their defensive front has been pushed around. They also rank near the bottom of the FBS in Finishing Drives allowed, ranking 133rd.
It's also important to note that the Panthers' two wins have come against Chattanooga and Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt was an impressive win, but they allowed 7.29 yards per play through the air against Ponzi Scheme quarterback Diego Pavia.
I am also highly concerned about the Panthers' special teams unit, which ranks 127th in PFF’s Coverage. The Eagles have shown they can put up points in some of their early-season matchups, so the secondary could be in big trouble here.
I cannot suggest backing the Panthers' swallowing over an FG.
Georgia Southern vs Georgia State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Georgia Southern and Georgia State match up statistically:
Georgia Southern Offense vs. Georgia State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 105 | 65 | |
| Line Yards | 132 | 102 | |
| Pass Success | 117 | 115 |  |
| Havoc | 105 | 70 | |
| Finishing Drives | 15 | 133 | |
| Quality Drives | 101 | 92 | |
Georgia State Offense vs. Georgia Southern Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 86 | 133 | |
| Line Yards | 89 | 101 | |
| Pass Success | 59 | 112 | |
| Havoc | 45 | 121 | |
| Finishing Drives | 80 | 115 | |
| Quality Drives | 67 | 114 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 76 | 83 |
| PFF Coverage | 30 | 127 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 11 | 116 |
| Middle 8 | 20 | 132 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.0 (42) | 27.4 (69) |
| Rush Rate | 46% (109) | 46% (102) |
Georgia Southern vs Georgia State Prediction
The Georgia State hype has gotten out of hand this week by bettors, and I am glad to take Georgia Southern +3.5.
I realize how awful the Eagles looked last week, but any Group of 5 team would look outmatched against a powerhouse SEC opponent.
French's numbers seem manageable, but I like that he's been efficient through the air and protected the ball. The Eagles have a dream matchup against a horrific Panthers' secondary.
The Eagles' Special Teams edge is massive, and their PFF Coverage ranking suggests their defense is not as bad as many deem it.
The Eagles can score points through the air, which was on full display during the Boise State game.
If the game were a pick' em', I would lean Georgia State. But 3.5 points is far too much of an overreaction, and I think the Eagles will be fired up after being embarrassed last week.
Consider me a citizen of France on Saturday afternoon because I am all in on French and the offense to step up.
Pick: Georgia Southern +3.5
How to Watch Georgia Southern vs Georgia State Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Center Parc Stadium, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 28 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPNU |
Georgia Southern vs Georgia State Betting Trends
- Georgia Southern is 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS
- Georgia State is 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS.
Georgia Southern vs Georgia State Weather
