It's a massive Sun Belt showdown Thursday evening, as the Georgia Southern Eagles (5-2, 3-0 Sun Belt) travel to Norfolk, Virginia, to take on the Old Dominion Monarchs (3-4, 2-1).
The Monarchs have surprised many folks, entering this matchup 2-1 in Sun Belt play.
The Eagles are coming off a massive home win as 10-point underdogs to James Madison and are now short 2.5-point underdogs in this matchup. The Monarchs are also entering the game off a big win, stunning the Texas State Bobcats as 10-point underdogs.
Oddsmakers have set the total for this one at 54.5.
Let's dive into my Georgia Southern vs. Old Dominion predictions and college football picks for Thursday, Oct. 24.
Georgia Southern vs Old Dominion Prediction
- Georgia Southern vs. Old Dominion Pick: Old Dominion -1.5 (Play to -2.5)
My Georgia Southern-Old Dominion best bet is on the Monarchs to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Georgia Southern vs Old Dominion Odds
| Georgia Southern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -112 | 54 -108o / -112u | -105 |
| Old Dominion Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -108 | 54 -108o / -112u | -115 |
- Georgia Southern vs Old Dominion Point Spread: Georgia Southern +1.5 (-110) · Old Dominion -1.5 (-110)
- Georgia Southern vs Old Dominion Total: Over/Under 54.5
- Georgia Southern vs Old Dominion Moneyline: Georgia Southern +105 · Old Dominion -119
Georgia Southern vs Old Dominion Preview
Georgia Southern Eagles Betting Preview: In for a Rude Awakening
The Eagles are an impressive 5-2, and their big win last week against James Madison was a massive statement for the rest of the season. Despite the big win, the Eagles enter Thursday's contest just 128th in strength of schedule.
Thursday night presents an intriguing matchup for the Eagles, given that both teams are coming off significant upset victories.
As much as I thought I would be all over the Eagles in the matchup, they have many questionable metrics that leave me concerned.
The most significant discrepancy in the matchup is the Eagles' rush defense. They sit near the bottom of FBS in Rush Success Rate allowed. The Monarchs' rushing offense is not the most potent, but they run it at a 57% clip, so the Eagles defense could be on the field for extended periods.
Georgia Southern ranks 105th in Defensive Line Yards and 91st in Havoc, so it's safe to say its defensive front has been incredibly soft thus far. That's especially alarming considering the Eagles have had such a weak schedule.
Offensively, they have a tough draw against a stingy Old Dominion defense. The rushing attack has done well but will struggle against the Monarchs' defensive front.
The Eagles are also 127th in Offensive Line Yards, while the Monarchs are 24th on the defensive side. The offensive line will provide little to no push, which will be a massive problem for the ground attack.
I am fond of quarterback JC French, as he's put up solid numbers through seven games. However, he could be under heavy duress for most of the contest.
As good as I thought Georgia Southern was, it could be in for a rude awakening against a strong Old Dominion defense.
Old Dominion Monarchs Betting Preview: Mismatch in Run Game
I was foolish enough to fade the Monarchs before the season began and took their win total under, but they've proven countless times that they're an above-average football team. They own a 3-4 overall record but are 2-1 in conference play.
Old Dominion's defense is the story, as it has been elite in multiple metrics. The Monarchs ramk top-25 in Rush Success Rate allowed and Line Yards allowed.
The defensive front has been a significant contributor against the run, and I expect that to continue against a bad Georgia Southern offensive front. This team is also 55th or better in Havoc, Defensive Finishing Drives and Quality Drives allowed.
Since quarterback Grant Wilson went down, backup Colton Joseph has done a fine job replacing him. Joseph has four touchdowns to one interception, two rushing touchdowns and averages over eight yards per carry.
The offensive metrics could be prettier, but Old Dominion ranks 21st in Offensive Finishing Drives. It's done a great job scoring touchdowns when reaching opposing territory.
Running back Devin Roche has claimed the starting tailback job, averaging over six yards per carry in limited opportunities thus far in 2024. The Monarchs love to run the ball, so we should see many different faces out of the backfield.
I have far more faith in the Old Dominion rushing attack and its defensive front to dominate Georgia Southern. Never in a million years would I have thought I'd be saying this before the season began.
Georgia Southern vs Old Dominion Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Georgia Southern and Old Dominion match up statistically:
Georgia Southern Offense vs. Old Dominion Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 67 | 12 | |
| Line Yards | 127 | 24 | |
| Pass Success | 104 | 82 | |
| Havoc | 104 | 50 | |
| Finishing Drives | 16 | 50 | |
| Quality Drives | 102 | 56 | |
Old Dominion Offense vs. Georgia Southern Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 97 | 131 | |
| Line Yards | 62 | 105 | |
| Pass Success | 125 | 60 | |
| Havoc | 107 | 91 | |
| Finishing Drives | 21 | 70 | |
| Quality Drives | 133 | 73 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 29 | 127 |
| PFF Coverage | 19 | 85 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 7 | 94 |
| Middle 8 | 17 | 122 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.1 (44) | 23.2 (8) |
| Rush Rate | 49% (99) | 57% (49) |
Georgia Southern vs Old Dominion Pick & Prediction
I initially thought I would want to take the underdog with a better record, but I refuse to fall into the trap.
The Monarchs defense and rushing attack are going to make a huge difference, and I expect the Eagles to struggle. What's also nice is that both teams are coming off upset victories, so the letdown aspect offsets itself.
Georgia Southern has a better chance of coming out flat here. The Eagles' clear edge of the game is their special teams, but I don't think it will be enough to propel them to a road win.
The strength of schedules is also a tad crooked, as the Eagles have faced far weaker teams than the Monarchs.
Old Dominion should take care of business at home, which would propel it right back into the Sun Belt Conference race.
Pick: Old Dominion -1.5 (Play to -2.5)
Georgia Southern vs Old Dominion Live: Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | S.B. Ballard Stadium, Norfolk, VA |
| Date: | Thursday, Oct. 24 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN2 |
Georgia Southern vs Old Dominion Betting Trends
- 69% of bets and 61% of the money are on Georgia Southern to cover the spread.
- 82% of bets and 90% of the money on the moneyline are on Old Dominion to win outright.
- 51% of bets and 62% of the money are on the under.
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
Georgia Southern vs Old Dominion Weather
