The Georgia Southern Eagles (8-4, 6-2 Sun Belt) will take on the Sam Houston State Bearkats (9-3, 6-2 Conference USA) in the New Orleans Bowl on Thursday night. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
There's a ton of opt-out and transfer portal news regarding the matchup, especially on the Sam Houston side, so be sure to check out Stuckey's article containing all potential opt-out/injury news for each bowl game.
Oddsmakers have Georgia Southern as a -4.5 favorite with the over/under set at 48.5.
Let's dive into my Georgia Southern vs. Sam Houston prediction and college football picks for the New Orleans Bowl on Thursday, Dec. 19.
Georgia Southern vs Sam Houston Prediction
- Georgia Southern vs. Sam Houston Pick: Over 48.5
My Sam Houston vs. Georgia Southern best bet is on the over, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Georgia Southern vs Sam Houston Odds
| Georgia Southern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 48.5 -108o / -112u | -192 |
| Sam Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 48.5 -108o / -112u | +160 |
- Georgia Southern vs Sam Houston Spread: Georgia Southern -4.5 (-110) · Sam Houston +4.5 (-110)
- Georgia Southern vs Sam Houston Over/Under: 48.5 Points
- Georgia Southern vs Sam Houston Moneyline: Georgia Southern -200 · Sam Houston +164
Georgia Southern vs Sam Houston Preview
Georgia Southern Eagles Betting Preview: Offense Should Cruise
There isn’t much opt-out or portal news to monitor for the Eagles. Backup quarterback Dexter Williams and wide receiver DeAndre Buchannon have entered the portal, but those two players don't bring much significance to the matchup.
The entire starting offense will be set to take on a Bearkats defense that's depleted because of opt-outs and the transfer portal. However, there's no official word as to which portal players are not playing in the bowl game, so it’s peculiar that the line went from Georgia Southern -6 down to -4.5.
I’ve been extremely high on quarterback JC French, who has shown flashes of excellence throughout the season. The Eagles rank a middling 78th in Passing Success Rate, but French completed 66% of his passes and threw 16 touchdowns.
Sam Houston's strength on defense came in the secondary, where it ranked 15th in Pass Success Rate allowed. However, many key defensive starters may not play, which should open up the passing games for Georgia Southern.
The Eagles' offensive success throughout the season came mainly from the ground attack, which the Bearkats defense struggled immensely to defend. That should open up opportunities for French to use his legs.
I also like Georgia Southern's edge in Offensive Finishing Drives. It ranks 15th in Finishing Drives, another area where the Kats defense suffered.
I have no questions about the Eagles offense here. They'll be able to move the ball without any resistance. It's not an elite offense by any stretch, but they should take advantage of the missing pieces on the Bearkats defense.
Defensively, I have a lot of concerns here. The Eagles sit outside the top 100 in Pass Success Rate, Rush Success Rate and Havoc on the defensive side.
Sam Houston Bearkats Betting Preview: Opt-Outs Galore
I read a CVS receipt while reviewing all the potential opt-outs and transfer portal news for Sam Houston. It's quite an alarming list, so again, check out Stuckey's article featuring all potential opt-out/injury news for each bowl game.
There's a large number of players on the Sam Houston side, but note that the majority of these players are from the defensive side of the ball. Essentially the entire running back room has left the program, but Georgia Southern's run defense was so bad throughout the year that it's not as significant as many deem.
The Bearkats offense was night and day when Hunter Watson started under center, which bodes well for the matchup against the Eagles.
Georgia Southern had one of the worst defenses in the Group of Five, so I expect the Bearkats to continue their success running the ball, regardless of who lines up.
Sam Houston ranks outside the top 100 in Pass and Rush Success Rate, but I wouldn't be concerned about those metrics — especially considering how bad the Eagles were on defense.
I alluded to my concerns about the Bearkats defense earlier and for good reason. Just looking at the number of snaps they're missing on defense should be a significant red flag.
Besides the missing pieces on defense, I would be just as worried about going against the Eagles' rushing attack.
Sam Houston was excellent at preventing explosive plays throughout the season but was strangely inadequate in early downs, Stuff Rate and Rush EPA allowed.
When I say the Bearkwats were bad in Stuff Rate, I mean they were one of the worst teams in the country in that category. That's a horrific sign heading into a matchup against a successful rushing unit.
There's a reason the Bearkats are underdogs here, but it's not just because of their opt-outs.
I'd be surprised to see their defense hold up throughout the game, but I would only count out the offense if Watson isn't under center.
Georgia Southern vs Sam Houston Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Georgia Southern and Sam Houston match up statistically:
Georgia Southern Offense vs. Sam Houston Defense
 | Offense |  Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 60 | 106 | |
| Line Yards | 118 | 122 |  |
| Pass Success | 78 | 15 | |
| Havoc | 94 | 65 | |
| Finishing Drives | 15 | 73 | |
| Quality Drives | 107 | 11 | |
Sam Houston Offense vs. Georgia Southern Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 105 | 126 | |
| Line Yards | 41 | 103 | |
| Pass Success | 110 | 98 | |
| Havoc | 52 | 106 | |
| Finishing Drives | 129 | 71 | |
| Quality Drives | 111 | 88 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 40 | 48 |
| PFF Coverage | 50 | 54 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 17 | 116 |
| Middle 8 | 47 | 88 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.8 (64) | 27.6 (85) |
| Rush Rate | 50% (99) | 62% (24) |
Georgia Southern vs Sam Houston Pick & Prediction
I love the over in this spot. There are far too many uncertainties on the Sam Houston side to back the Bearkats, but I'm not thrilled with laying the points with this horrific Eagles defense either.
That said, I see this game's most significant betting edge in the total. The Bearkats are missing key pieces on defense, which bodes even better for the French and the Georgia Southern offense.
Meanwhile, Watson playing for Sam Houston is massive despite its offensive opt-outs. The Bearkats should be just fine against a pathetic Georgia Southern defense.
Pick: Over 48.5 (Play to 50.5)
Georgia Southern vs Sam Houston Start Time, TV Channel, Location, How to Watch
| Location: | Caesars Superdome, New Orleans |
| Date: | Thursday, Dec. 19 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN2 |
Georgia Southern takes on Sam Houston in the New Orleans Bowl on Thursday, Dec. 19 at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
