2018 Camellia Betting Odds: Georgia Southern-Eastern Michigan
- Odds: Georgia Southern -2.5
- Over/Under: 47.5
- Date: Saturday, Dec. 15
- Time: 5:30 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
>> All odds as of Thursday afternoon. Download The Action Network App to get real-time bowl odds and win probabilities on your bets.
Eastern Michigan was likely one of the last teams selected for bowl eligibility and will face a tricky test in Georgia Southern's triple-option offense in the Camellia Bowl.
Georgia Southern went 9-3 after re-discovering its option identity following a 2-10 season in 2017. The Eagles have attempted just 109 passes all year and have five players with at least 300 yards rushing.
EMU had a weird year, all considered. It somehow beat Purdue, then lost four straight games by a total of 16 points, then rebounded to win five of their final six. These Eagles have been to three bowl games in their history — 1971, 1987 and 2016.
Odds Movement for 2018 Camellia Bowl
By Danny Donahue
After opening this game at a pick’em, oddsmakers are now listing Georgia Southern as a 2.5-point favorite. Sixty-five percent of bettors and 73% of money playing the Eagles have been behind the line movement.
Perhaps as a result of the low overall ticket count on this game, the total hasn’t seen much significant movement. But 99% of money — a figure that should drop as kickoff approaches — on 54% of bets behind the under have caused the number to fall from 48 to 47.5.
Trends to Know
By John Ewing
It has been profitable to bet underdogs in bowl games. It is more profitable to do so in low-total games since they often feature fewer possessions and thus limits the opportunities for the better team (usually the favorite) to pull away.
Underdogs in games with over/under of less than 55 points have gone 123-102-1 (55%) ATS since 2005.
By Evan Abrams
In 2014, Georgia Southern transitioned from the FCS level to FBS, joining the Sun Belt. Since then, Georgia Southern is 34-27 ATS (55.7%), covering the spread by 2.1 PPG.
In the Camellia Bowl, Georgia Southern is currently receiving over 60% of spread tickets. Since 2014, Georgia Southern is 21-14 ATS (60%) when receiving the majority of tickets.
By Stuckey
MAC teams have struggled in bowls: They're 23-37-3 ATS (38.3%) since 2005, failing to cover by almost five points (-4.68) per game on average. That 23.7% ROI is the lowest among any conference in our database.
MAC teams are 12-16 ATS in the last five years, 9-9 in the last three and went 1-4 last year.
Georgia Southern Has Special Teams Edge
By Stuckey
Georgia Southern has the much more reliable kicker, as Tyler Bass has been steady all season (16-18 FG, 43-43 PAT). Meanwhile, kicking has been an absolute nightmare for EMU, as freshman kicker Chad Ryland is just 12 of 20 on field goal attempts.
Per S&P’s FG value rankings, GSU sits at No. 2 in the country, while EMU comes in at 121. EMU also holds a significant overall special teams rankings advantage of 14 to 107.
Georgia Southern Has Short-Yardage Edge
By Stuckey
Georgia Southern has a big edge in opportunity rate on offense (top 25) vs. EMU defensive opportunity rate (114th). That metric tells you how often a team gains at least four yards on a carry, or holds the opposition to fewer than four yards on defense.
It’s going to be tough for EMU to stop Georgia Southern in short yardage situations, much like it was for them against Army’s triple option attack (10-19 on third down and 4-4 on fourth down).
Meanwhile, EMU should struggle to convert on their third and fourth and shorts, which are just drive and momentum killers. EMU ranks DEAD LAST in the nation on Third and Short Success Rate, while GSU’s defense ranks 11th.
Who Is More Motivated?
By Stuckey
EMU is looking for its first bowl win since the California Bowl in 1987 (its only program bowl win). The Eagles did make a bowl two years ago (their first in nearly 30 years) but came up short against Old Dominion.
After this football program was close to folding at EMU, head coach Chris Creighton has done a remarkable job turning around this team and even secured funding for facilities upgrades. A bowl win will be another step in the right direction in turning around football in Ypsilanti.
Meanwhile, six-time FCS national champion Georgia Southern will make its second ever bowl appearance. It won its first in 2015 against another MAC opponent: Bowling Green — in a 58-27 rout in which the Eagles ran for 452 yards on 68 carries.
Ultimately, I don’t think either team will have a motivational edge. These two teams should want to be here.
Why I'm Betting Georgia Southern
By Collin Wilson
Eastern Michigan brings a great pass defense, which has no value in a game against Georgia Southern's triple-option attack. Although Eastern Michigan is 14-3 against the spread in non-conference play in recent years and has two weeks to prepare for the option, don't read into it too much.
Army put up 289 yards of rushing in a game earlier this season and had the ball for 45-plus minutes. Eastern Michigan defensively is 114th in opportunity rate and 88th in stuff rate, indicating there will be issues stopping the Georgia Southern rush attack.
There are other key areas to watch, as both teams excel in limiting big plays. Georgia Southern is 15th defensively in overall IsoPPP, with Eastern Michigan coming in at No. 7 in the same category.
But the biggest matchup is Georgia Southern in Eastern Michigan territory, as the GSU is 12th in finishing drives to an EMU defense that is 16th in finishing drives.
The total is in line with The Action Network projections of 47.5, so no value play can be recommended on the total.
However, with Eastern Michigan having issues all season with teams that excel in rushing the ball, it's hard to ignore a wager on the Eagles of Georgia Southern from the Sun Belt.
