Georgia State vs. Appalachian State Odds
| Georgia State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -115 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | +250 |
| Appalachian State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -105 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | -315 |
The 2022 season has been a wave of emotions for Appalachian State.
There was the frantic 40-point fourth quarter that nearly resulted in a comeback victory over North Carolina. It followed that by going into College Station and upsetting Texas A&M. At home the following week, App State needed a Hail Mary on the final play of the game to knock off Troy.
Then, the Mountaineers blew a 28-3 lead against James Madison. A 49-0 blowout win over The Citadel was nondescript compared to the rest of the season. However, App State followed that up by losing outright as an 18.5-point favorite against Texas State.
After the wild start to the year, the Mountaineers are 3-3 (1-2 Sun Belt) overall and 2-4 against the spread. They'll welcome Georgia State to Boone for a Wednesday "Fun Belt" matchup this week.
Georgia State began the season 0-4 with losses to South Carolina, North Carolina, Charlotte and Coastal Carolina. Since then, it has won its last two with victories over Army and Georgia Southern. The Panthers enter 2-4 overall, 1-1 in the Sun Belt and 2-3-1 against the spread.
Georgia State and Appalachian State have been playing each other as conference members since 2014. The Mountaineers have dominated the series, winning all eight meetings, including a 45-16 victory last season.
App State has covered four of the last five meetings as well. The over has also hit in three of the last four meetings. Should we expect another high-scoring battle on Wednesday night?
Georgia State Panthers
It will be a homecoming for Georgia State head coach Shawn Elliott, who graduated from App State and spent 13 years on the Mountaineers' coaching staff.
App State has long been one of the best running teams in the country, and Elliott has built a team in its image.
Georgia State leads the Sun Belt and ranks 10th in FBS in rushing with 234.3 yards per game. It has rushed for 200 yards or more in 12 of its last 14 games, including 299 against Army and 335 against Georgia Southern.
Jamyest Williams and Tucker Gregg serve as the leading rushers in the backfield, and each is coming off of consecutive 100-yard games.
Gregg leads the team with 460 yards and six touchdowns on 4.6 yards per carry. Williams, meanwhile, is averaging 5.9 yards per carry and has run for 403 yards and two touchdowns. Marcus Carroll adds a third element, and he leads the team with 6.6 yards per carry and has run for 246 yards this season.
Quarterback Darren Grainger is also a threat to run with 303 yards and two touchdowns. Through the air, he has 12 touchdown passes and five interceptions with a 55.7% completion rate.
Georgia State doesn't put the ball in the air often, but when it does, big plays usually follow. Grainger ranks eighth in FBS with 14.6 yards per completion.
His leading receiver, Jamari Thrash, has caught 30 passes for 503 yards and two touchdowns. Robert Lewis has hauled in 18 passes for 344 yards and six scores, while Ja'Cyais Credle has 16 receptions for 222 yards and one touchdown.
Georgia State averages 29.8 points per game, but it gives up 33.3 and ranks 116th in the FBS in scoring defense.
It has played two Power Five opponents this season — including a potent UNC offense — but GSU has some things to clean up defensively. It ranks 114th in Rushing Success Rate, 112th in Passing Success Rate, 98th in Line Yards and 89th in Havoc.
One thing that Georgia State does well is taking the ball away, ranking second in the FBS with 15 forced turnovers. That includes five turnovers and four interceptions against Georgia Southern, which both tied school records.
Cornerback Quavian White ranks fourth in the FBS with four interceptions, including one against Georgia Southern.
App State Mountaineers
App State has a nearly identical run-pass distribution — 50.8% run to 49.2% pass — but it has been more effective through the air this season.
Quarterback Chase Brice has thrown for 1.674 yards, 18 touchdowns and three interceptions with a 65.8% completion rate. App State ranks 47th in Passing Success Rate, and Brice should have a big day against this struggling Georgia State secondary.
App State also sits 67th in Rushing Success Rate and averages 162.5 yards rushing per game. That number is a bit lower than we're used to seeing from the Mountaineers, as they've rushed for 65 yards or fewer in two of their last three games.
However, they've been missing half of their dynamic running back duo. App State hasn't had Camerun Peoples and Nate Noel on the field together since Week 1.
Noel has missed the last three games, and his status for Wednesday remains unknown as of writing. Peoples leads the team with 366 yards and three touchdowns on 6.4 yards per carry.
App State has also been banged up at receiver, but it should get a bit healthier there Wednesday. Christian Wells has missed the last three games, but he's expected to return against Georgia State. However, Kaedin Robinson was injured against Texas State and remains a game-time decision this week.
Those injuries have led to the development of redshirt freshman wideout Dalton Stroman. He caught five passes for 104 yards and a touchdown against Texas State and has 12 receptions for 217 yards and two touchdowns this season.
Dashaun Davis leads the Mountaineers with 27 receptions for 312 yards and two touchdowns, while Christian Horn has been the big-play threat this season with 20 receptions for 407 yards and four scores.
Defensively, App State ranks 39th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, and it has been particularly stingy over the last month. In that time span, the Mountaineers have allowed fewer than 110 yards per game on 2.7 yards per carry.
Stopping Georgia State's ground attack will be key for the Mountaineers. Last year, App State held GSU to its second-lowest total on the ground with 135 yards and zero touchdowns.
However, App is still breaking in a new defense after last year's matchup.
If Georgia State can find success on the ground, that will open up its passing attack. That would be particularly problematic for the Mountaineers, who rank 107th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 117th in coverage grade, per PFF.
If App State can't stop Georgia State with seven men in the box, it will have to commit an extra man. That will lead to one-on-one opportunities for Grainger to take advantage of on the perimeter.
The Mountaineers do pressure the passer well, ranking 27th in pass-rush grade. Outside linebacker Nick Hampton leads the team with 7.5 tackles for loss and five sacks.
Georgia State vs. Appalachian State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Georgia State and Appalachian State match up statistically:
Georgia State Offense vs. Appalachian State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 106 | 39 | |
| Line Yards | 16 | 13 |  |
| Pass Success | 73 | 107 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 87 | 27 | |
| Havoc | 70 | 67 | |
| Finishing Drives | 116 | 97 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Appalachian State Offense vs. Georgia State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 67 | 114 | |
| Line Yards | 58 | 98 | |
| Pass Success | 47 | 112 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 70 | 59 | |
| Havoc | 13 | 89 | |
| Finishing Drives | 36 | 47 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 123 | 80 |
| PFF Coverage | 70 | 117 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 34 | 123 |
| Seconds per Play | 22.3 (11) | 26.1 (61) |
| Rush Rate | 65.4% (6) | 50.8% (80) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Georgia State vs. Appalachian State Betting Pick
The over has hit in three of Georgia State's last five games and in four of App State's six games this season.
The over has also hit in three of the last four meetings in this series. Those three games all saw at least 61 points scored, and this year's total sits at 59 points.
Weather shouldn't be a factor, which is a good thing for a night game in October. It will be cold at 35 degrees at kickoff, but there aren't any signs of precipitation in the forecast.
Each team will have a chance to score 30 points in this matchup, and as a result, I'm inclined to take the over.
Pick: Over 59 |
