Central Florida vs Georgia Tech Odds
| Central Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 66.5 -105o / -115u | -250 |
| Georgia Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 66.5 -105o / -115u | +200 |
Ahoy, bowl season.
The Gasparilla Bowl, named after the mythical pirate José Gaspar, appropriately features a pair of defenses that take on water faster than a cannonball-ravaged ship.
With head coach Brent Key at the helm for his first full season in Atlanta, Georgia Tech (6-6) is back in a bowl game for the first time in five years.
Meanwhile, Gus Malzahn’s UCF program (6-6) needed a win over Houston in the regular season’s final week to secure the Knights’ eighth consecutive bowl appearance.
Both teams feature offenses that can put up points in a hurry and defenses that have frequently been exposed.
With a winning season and treasure-chest trophy on the line, which team is more likely to secure the booty? Let's dive into the Georgia Tech vs. UCF odds and make a Gasparilla Bowl pick that hopefully brings us some doubloons.
UCF Knights
UCF makes the short trip from the Bounce House to Tampa after experiencing its first foray into life as a Power Five program.
It was anything but rainbows and butterflies in the Knights' new conference, as they went 1-6 against non-new Big 12 opponents.
Similar to the Yellow Jackets, quarterback play and offense weren't the issues. John Rhys Plumlee and a strong rushing attack were responsible for putting up 492.3 yards per game, seventh-best in the country.
The Knights are fifth in the country with 5.7 yards per carry and are led by senior tailback RJ Harvey, whose 1,296 rushing yards are the 10th-most in the country.
With the dual-threat Plumlee at quarterback, UCF is one of the more balanced teams in the nation in terms of yardage. Seven times this year, the Knights recorded at least 200 passing yards and 250 rushing yards in the same game.
The Knights' run defense has been its Achilles’ heel. While UCF ranks top-25 in Pass Success Allowed, it ranks in the bottom 25 in Rush Success and Line Yards Allowed.
Four Big 12 teams rushed for more than 200 yards against UCF, including a Kansas team that racked up a whopping 399 yards on the ground.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Key’s first full season as Georgia Tech's head coach was one filled with high highs and low lows.
The Yellow Jackets were on the right side of a Mario Cristobal debacle in Coral Gables, and they hung tight with Georgia to end the season, losing by only a single score.
But there was also a double-digit losing effort to Bowling Green and blowout losses against Ole Miss and Clemson that left this season feeling like a mixed bag.
In a change from recent history, the Georgia Tech offense has not been the problem. The Yellow Jackets had the third-best total offense in the ACC this season (429.1 yards per game), the first time their offense has finished better than 10th in the conference since 2018.
Quarterback Haynes King has been a welcome addition. The Texas A&M transfer led the ACC with 26 passing touchdowns on an offense that finished fourth in the conference with 31.2 points per game.
Georgia Tech is even more effective on the ground, where it ranks 22nd in Rush Success and sixth in Line Yards. The rushing attack hit its stride in the second half of the season, eclipsing the 200-yard mark in five of Georgia Tech’s last six games.
The offensive success was often necessitated by poor defensive play. In the ACC, only Virginia allowed more than Georgia Tech’s 30.5 points per game, and the Yellow Jackets were nearly a full 30 yards per game worse than any conference foe in total defense.
Of note in this matchup, the Georgia Tech run defense is particularly poor.
The Yellow Jackets have allowed more than 250 yards rushing on five occasions this season, going 1-4 outright in those games. Only Louisiana Tech and North Texas allow more rushing yards per game than Georgia Tech (225.7).
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UCF vs Georgia Tech
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UCF and Georgia Tech match up statistically:
Georgia Tech Offense vs. UCF Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 22 | 124 | |
| Line Yards | 6 | 112 | |
| Pass Success | 68 | 23 | |
| Havoc | 65 | 102 | |
| Finishing Drives | 37 | 63 | |
| Quality Drives | 47 | 93 | |
UCF Offense vs. Georgia Tech Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 20 | 123 | |
| Line Yards | 28 | 128 | |
| Pass Success | 38 | 77 | |
| Havoc | 51 | 71 | |
| Finishing Drives | 78 | 78 |  |
| Quality Drives | 15 | 107 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 37 | 71 |
| PFF Coverage | 47 | 75 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 86 | 112 |
| Middle 8 | 37 | 56 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.3 (31) | 25.3 (32) |
| Rush Rate | 54.5% (56) | 59.8% (22) |
UCF vs Georgia Tech
Betting Prediction, Pick
Bowl games should be fun, and if you like offense, then fun this game should be.
All of the offensive playmakers will be suited up for this game, so it should be all systems go. There’s a reason this game has the highest total of the bowl season at the time of writing.
But rather than focusing on the total, backing a side is the better play.
These teams have similar records, but how they’ve gotten there is different. Three of UCF’s conference losses came by a total of five points. It gave Big 12 finalist Oklahoma State its worst conference loss of the season, and the Knights picked up a quality win over Mountain West champion Boise State.
Georgia Tech, meanwhile, lost to a middling MAC program and has zero wins over teams currently in the top 25.
Both run defenses are equally poor, and UCF has the better ground attack to exploit that weakness.
I liked this UCF side when it opened as a near-touchdown favorite, and I love it even more as the number has been bet down.
Pick: UCF -4.5 (Play to -6)
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