Georgia vs. Baylor Odds, Pick
- Odds: Georgia -3.5
- Over/Under: 41
- Time: 8:45 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
- Location: New Orleans, La.
Georgia and Baylor both ended their seasons with conference title game losses, but they couldn't have felt more different.
The Bears rallied to take Oklahoma to overtime, but just two years removed from a 1-11 campaign, 2019 feels like a massive success.
Georgia entered the season with high expectations as always, but the Dawgs offense never got it together, and they were blown out by LSU in the SEC title game.
Which team will be ready for the Sugar Bowl? And will the Dawgs be any more ready than they were in this game last year, when they lost to Texas as a big favorite?
Let's break it down.
Odds as of Tuesday night and via FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
How Sugar Bowl Lines Have Moved
Georgia opened north of a touchdown favorite, and has fallen all the way to -4 with continued news that many of its best players will sit this game out.
Still, more than 55% of bettors are backing the Bulldogs.
How Motivated Will Georgia Be?
From a motivational perspective, I have serious questions about a Georgia team that had dreams of making it to the College Football Playoff while avenging its collapse in last year's SEC Championship Game.
The Bulldogs achieved neither and now find themselves in the same bowl game against a Big 12 team once again. And we all know how that ended last year against Texas.
On the other hand, I'm confident that Baylor will be fully motivated here to take on an SEC team in the Sugar Bowl on New Year's Day. This is an enormous game for a program that is just two years removed from winning one game.
This is also a spot where Baylor coach Matt Rhule thrives against the spread. Just take a look at these two nuggets:
- 29-15-1 ATS on the road or neutral site
- 33-15 ATS as an underdog
In fact, Rhule is the second-most profitable coach as an underdog since 2005 among 527 coaches in our Bet Labs database. He will have his troops ready for this one.
All-American LT Andrew Thomas not suiting up for Georgia in preparation of the NFL Draft, where he will likely go as a first-rounder. Well, Georgia's starting RT Isaiah Wilson then followed suit. Oh, and it doesn't end there as starting guard Ben Cleveland was ruled academically ineligible.
Kirby Smart's bunch will also be without its top two receivers as Lawrence Cager and Dominick Blaylock had season-ending injuries toward the end of the season.
How about the running back position? Well, Georgia may not have two of its top five backs, including leading rusher DeAndre Swift, who has been dealing with an injury and could skip the game for the NFL Draft. Also, we may see a suspension announced in regards to James Cook, who recently got pulled over with brandy and a gun in his car.
To me, all of this news adds up to Georgia as a whole not really caring about this game.
The Georgia defense will still make life difficult for Baylor, but I trust Charlie Brewer to make enough plays to give Baylor a really good shot to pull this one out in what should be a low-scoring affair.
Stuckey's Pick: I grabbed some +7.5 last month but would play Baylor at anything 4 or above. I'll also be sprinkling some on the moneyline.
