Hawaii vs Fresno State Odds
| Hawaii Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+27.5 -118 | 61.5 -115o / -105u | +1600 |
| Fresno State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-27.5 -104 | 61.5 -115o / -105u | -4500 |
Jake Haener season is back on!
The star quarterback returned from his injury last week in a 32-28 victory over San Diego State. The victory put the Bulldogs atop the West Division with a 3-1 record in Mountain West play.
They have a chance to separate themselves from the pack with a matchup against Hawaii this week.
The Hawaii Warriors were expected to be among the bottom teams in the country. And that has become a reality through the first nine games of the season with a 2-7 record. Collin Wilson’s Power Ratings have Hawaii ranked as the 127th team in the nation.
This matchup has all the fixings for a rout on Saturday night.
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors Are Bad Everywhere
It’s been tough sledding for Hawaii, which has come away with just two victories in its nine games this season. The Rainbow Warriors defeated FCS Duquesne by just 10 points before beating an underwhelming Nevada program.
The program opened the season with three losses by a combined margin of 131 points. Its recent losses have been a bit more competitive but have come against Colorado State, Wyoming and San Diego State. Not the stiffest of competition.
That has led Hawaii to being outscored by 19 points and outgained by 125 yards of total offense against FBS opponents this season. There aren’t many positive things to say about this program. The offense struggles to consistently move the ball, and the defense can’t stop a nosebleed.
Defensively, the group ranks 120th in scoring defense (36 ppg) and 128th in yards per play (7.0). It starts with the inability to stop the run, allowing 6.5 yards per rush attempt, which ranks dead last in the country. Through the air, the group isn’t much better allowing 7.8 yards per pass attempt.
Hawaii will have to turn this game into a shootout if they want to stay competitive.
But the offense is horrific. Sophomore quarterback Brayden Schager is completing just 56% of his passes for an average of 5.8 yards per attempt. He’s tossed six interceptions to go with six touchdowns on the season. They will need to find success behind the run game that averaged 4.4 yards per carry.
Title Hopes Alive for Fresno State Bulldogs
Fresno State kept its hopes alive through the last month after Jake Haener was injured against USC.
The program went 2-2, but only one of those losses came to a Mountain West opponent. The program now sits tied for first place in the conference's West division after its 32-28 victory over San Diego State last week.
Without Haener starting under center, the offense averaged 316 yards per game. With him at the helm, that number has increased to 465 yards per game. That’s not a shock, as Haener is one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the nation.
Backup quarterback Logan Fife was acting more as a game manager and tossed two touchdowns to six interceptions in his four weeks as the starter.
But now with Haener back, the Bulldogs' hopes for a Mountain West crown are alive and well. The senior quarterback is completing 73% of his passes while averaging 8.3 yards per pass attempt.
He’s in for a big day against a Hawaii secondary that is allowing 7.8 yards per pass attempt, which ranks 100th in the nation.
The Fresno defense should have no issues shutting down a Hawaii offense that ranks 117th in the nation in scoring. The group will need to focus on slowing down the running game since the Rainbow Warriors' passing offense has become nonexistent.
Hawaii vs Fresno State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Hawaii and Fresno State match up statistically:
Hawaii Offense vs Fresno State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 29 | 46 | |
| Line Yards | 69 | 91 | |
| Pass Success | 115 | 75 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 71 | 105 | |
| Havoc | 79 | 18 | |
| Finishing Drives | 120 | 72 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Fresno State Offense vs Hawaii Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 31 | 120 | |
| Line Yards | 82 | 124 | |
| Pass Success | 19 | 90 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 115 | 118 |  |
| Havoc | 81 | 123 | |
| Finishing Drives | 97 | 109 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 126 | 56 |
| PFF Coverage | 115 | 38 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 93 | 72 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.4 (40) | 26.6 (74) |
| Rush Rate | 45.5% (113) | 49.4% (88) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Hawaii vs Fresno State Betting Pick
This will be Haener’s second game back from injury, and last week showed us that he had little rust. He completed 34-of-45 passing for 394 yards and three touchdowns against a solid San Diego State defense.
Haener is poised to put up big numbers against a horrific Hawaii defense that ranks among the bottom of the country in nearly every advanced metric.
Hawaii will need to score points to keep up with the high-powered Bulldogs offense. But that is a big ask for an offense that ranks outside the top 100 in both yards per play and points per game.
This line opened at Fresno -22.5 and has jumped up five points since for a good reason. Fresno State is back atop its division in the Mountain West, and now it will look to pour it on in this matchup with its star quarterback at full strength.
Pick: Fresno State -27.5 ⋅ Play to -28 |
