We head to Snapdragon Stadium in San Diego, California, for a Week 6 bout between two middle-of-the-pack Mountain West teams.
The San Diego State Aztecs (1-3) welcome in the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (2-2) in a matchup that San Diego State has dominated as of late, winning the last four of five games.
Hawaii comes into San Diego sitting at 2-2 after beating Northern Iowa, 36-7 two weeks ago with a bye week this past week.
San Diego State enters this one at 1-3 following a disappointing close loss at Central Michigan last week by the score of 22-21. This figures to be a good get-right spot for the Aztecs, but could Hawaii play spoiler?
The Aztecs are favored by 2.5 with the over/under sitting at 48.5.
Let's dive into my Hawaii vs San Diego State predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 5.
Hawaii vs San Diego State Prediction
- Hawaii vs. San Diego State Pick: Under 48.5
My San Diego State vs. Hawaii best bet is on the under, with the best line currently available at BetMGM, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Hawaii vs San Diego State Odds
| Hawaii Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +110 |
| San Diego State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -130 |
- Hawaii vs San Diego State Point Spread: San Diego State -2.5
- Hawaii vs San Diego State Over/Under: 48.5 Points
- Hawaii vs San Diego State Moneyline: Hawaii +110 · San Diego State -130
Hawaii vs San Diego State Preview
Hawaii Warriors Betting Preview: Turnovers Are A Problem
Head coach Timmy Chang is in his third season in Honolulu, which is normally a make-or-break year for a coach, as it's one of the first seasons a coach has most of his players.
Chang got better record-wise last season after a three-win season in year one, and he looked to improve upon his five-win season last year. This will be one of the key games he will need to win to keep moving in the right direction.
Senior quarterback Brayden Schager is back again to lead the Rainbow Warrior attack, and he is off to a solid start with over 1,000 passing yards and eight touchdowns through four games.
Chang has established his unwavering support for Schager as he runs the third-highest pass play rate in the country. Despite that trust, Hawaii's offense generally struggles, ranking 105th in success rate and 127th in explosiveness.
Part of these struggles is a result of Schager’s turnover problems. He threw 14 interceptions last year and is already up to five on the young season. If Hawaii wants to win this one, he will need to be steady and not force anything that could result in more turnovers for the senior.
The strength of Chang’s team is this defense. The Bows are allowing only 17 points per game, and they rank 46th in defensive success rate.
This defense has helped mask the turnover problems they deal with on the offensive side of the ball, as evident by their ranking 21st in defensive havoc and an even turnover margin on the year.
This defense will need to show up in a big way and help Hawaii out with a few forced turnovers and short fields to come out on top in this one.
San Diego State Aztecs Betting Preview: Defensively Gifted, Offensively Lost
Head coach Sean Lewis leads the Aztecs into battle in this one in his first season ever as head coach. Lewis came over from Colorado in the offseason after serving as offensive coordinator and quarterback coach in Boulder.
He hasn’t gotten an ideal start at 1-3, but he has had some tough matchups. This feels like a very winnable game for the Aztecs and one that Lewis will be keyed in on following the close loss last week.
The Aztecs roll out freshman quarterback Danny O’Neil to lead an offense that's averaging 19 points per game on the year. San Diego State runs a very balanced attack with the ground game and the pass attempts at about a 50/50 split.
The problem is that this offense is just not productive. It ranks 122nd in offensive success rate, but it does rank 58th in explosiveness.
The Aztecs rely on the big plays to find success, which could come at a premium against Hawaii this week. They'll need to rely on explosive run plays in this one and take care of the football, so the struggling Hawaii offense doesn’t get anything easy.
The strength of the Aztecs is their defense. They only allow 22 points per game on the year the defense ranks 25th against the pass and 114th against the run.
It is evident that teams find success running the football against this front seven, so they do not need to throw as much. When they do throw against San Diego State, it comes in obvious passing downs where it's able to find success stopping it.
The best stat for this defense is that they rank second in defensive explosiveness, so it will not be beaten with big plays. It will be a steady offense that is needed to beat this defense.
San Diego State vs Hawaii Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how San Diego State and Hawaii match up statistically:
Hawaii Offense vs. San Diego State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 62 | 102 | |
| Line Yards | 42 | 121 | |
| Pass Success | 33 | 21 | |
| Havoc | 67 | 95 | |
| Finishing Drives | 50 | 56 | |
| Quality Drives | 110 | 60 | |
San Diego State Offense vs. Hawaii Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 126 | 55 | |
| Line Yards | 40 | 74 | |
| Pass Success | 101 | 36 | |
| Havoc | 94 | 7 | |
| Finishing Drives | 131 | 64 | |
| Quality Drives | 130 | 35 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 42 | 99 |
| PFF Coverage | 5 | 15 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 82 | 124 |
| Middle 8 | 114 | 52 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.1 (65) | 23.3 (9) |
| Rush Rate | 38% (134) | 57% (53) |
Hawaii vs San Diego State Pick & Prediction
Both of these teams have struggling offenses that will be squaring off against talented defenses. While both teams have weaknesses defensively, I don't suspect either offense can expose those weaknesses.
Because of the inept offenses I have seen from both teams this year, I will not be taking a side in this one. Instead, I will be taking under 48.5 points.
Pick: Under 48.5
How to Watch Hawaii vs San Diego State Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 5 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | CBS Sports Network |
Hawaii vs San Diego State Betting Trends
- 36% of the bets, but 92% of the money is placed towards the Rainbow Warriors covering the spread.
- 87% of the tickets and 77% of the money is aimed at the Over.
- San Diego State moneyline has 95% of the bets.
