The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (4-6, 2-3 MWC) travel to take on the Utah State Aggies (2-7, 1-3) in Mountain West Conference action on Saturday, Nov. 16. This game kicks off at 3 p.m. ET and can be seen live on Spectrum PPV.
Neither of these teams are going bowling this season, as Utah State already has seven losses and the best Hawaii can finish is 6-6 with 2 FCS wins, which would not be good enough for a bowl under normal circumstances.
Hawaii enters a 2.5-point favorite with the over/under set at 60.5.
Let's take a look at my Hawaii vs. Utah State predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 16.
Hawaii vs Utah State Prediction
- Hawaii vs Utah State Pick: Utah State Team Total Under 29.5
My Utah State vs. Hawaii best bet is on the Aggies to stay under their team total. Find the best line on our live NCAAF odds page.
Hawaii vs Utah State Odds
| Hawaii Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 / -110 | -135 |
| Utah State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 / -110 | +115 |
- Hawaii vs Utah State Point Spread: Hawaii -2.5 (-110) · Utah State +2.5 (-110)
- Hawaii vs Utah State Over/Under: 60.5
- Hawaii vs Utah State Moneyline: Hawaii -135 · Utah State +115
Hawaii vs Utah State Preview
Hawaii Warriors Betting Preview: Lacking Explosiveness
Hawaii is coming off a hard-fought 29-27 defeat at the hands of UNLV last week. The Bows held the lead in the third quarter of the back-and-forth affair but ultimately fell to one of the better teams in the Mountain West.
The Rainbow Warriors have played really good football the last three weeks while easily covering the spread in each game.
Hawaii will look to notch a win against one of the weaker teams in the Mountain West Conference this week, and I expect its defense to play really well against the Aggies.
Hawaii has been limiting opponents to just 136 yards rushing per game with an average of 4.1 yards per carry. The averages are skewed by solid rushing performances by Sam Houston, Boise State and UNLV, but the Bows have otherwise held five opponents under 100 yards rushing.
This Hawaii front seven can really create Havoc and has consistently registered negative plays.
The Aggies have been blown out a lot this season and have padded their offensive numbers in garbage time, but this team struggles to run the ball consistently when the snaps matter.
Hawaii's offense has been less explosive than we're used to seeing, and it's playing at a slower pace than Hawaii teams of the past. The offense struggles with explosiveness, ranking just 127th nationally.
Hawaii will likely make a concerted effort here to run the ball against a Utah State defense that has been unsuccessful in stopping the run this year.
Utah State Aggies Betting Preview: Injuries Hurting Offense
Utah State comes in off a blowout loss against Washington State last week. The final score was somewhat misleading, as Wazzu was leading 41-14 in the fourth quarter before yielding a couple of scores in garbage time.
Defensively, Utah State struggled to stop the run. Washington State's ground game surpassed 300 yards rushing with a 6.7 yards-per -arry average.
The Aggies have now surrendered 45 points or more six times this season, and they're in another tough spot again this week against Hawaii.
Offensively, Utah State was rolling during a four-game stretch in which it averaged 35 points and 520 yards per game from Sept. 21-Oct. 19.
After electric wide receiver Jalen Royals went down with an injury, the offense has been hampered, and the yardage and scoring outputs have been reduced substantially.
Utah State needed multiple scores in the fourth quarter to come back and beat Wyoming, 27-25, and had only registered seven points against Washington State through the first 40 minutes of that contest.
The point is, this offense has not been lighting it up recently and has seen the yards and points drop significantly in recent weeks.
Hawaii vs Utah State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Hawaii and Utah State match up statistically:
Hawaii Offense vs. Utah State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 32 | 127 | |
| Line Yards | 21 | 129 | |
| Pass Success | 73 | 118 | |
| Havoc | 103 | 126 | |
| Finishing Drives | 66 | 127 | |
| Quality Drives | 85 | 130 | |
Utah State Offense vs. Hawaii Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 73 | 44 | |
| Line Yards | 33 | 81 | |
| Pass Success | 50 | 62 | |
| Havoc | 41 | 63 | |
| Finishing Drives | 69 | 63 | |
| Quality Drives | 87 | 66 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 64 | 111 |
| PFF Coverage | 19 | 92 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 119 | 100 |
| Middle 8 | 101 | 120 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.1 (65) | 22.0 (3) |
| Rush Rate | 42% (132) | 43% (120) |
Hawaii vs Utah State Pick & Prediction
I'm going to take the Utah State team total under 29.5, which is currently available at FanDuel at -112.
Hawaii's defense will provide some challenges that should make it difficult for Utah State to score a ton of points in the game.
Utah State ranks just 89th overall in Offensive Success Rate and 107th in Havoc Allowed. This is a concern when lining up against a Hawaii defense that has registered 25 sacks and 62 tackles for loss this season.
The secondary has been playing really tight coverage and is allowing just 210 passing yards per game. While Utah State quarterback Spencer Petras has only been sacked eight times this season, he has been pressured on numerous occasions, resulting in errant throws and throwaways.
The Bows don't want to get into a shootout here and should operate at a slower pace offensively while also battling the cold weather, which they're not accustomed to.
With Hawaii’s lack of explosiveness on offense, I would expect long methodical drives that eat up clock and keep Utah State's offense on the sidelines.
Hawaii has been a great under team this season, and I expect this to be a close, low-scoring game. I trust the Hawaii defense more than Utah State’s offense here.
With injuries to key position players and an offense that allows a ton of Havoc, I expect Utah State to struggle to score here.
Pick: Utah State Team Total Under 29.5 (Play to 28.5)
Hawaii vs Utah State Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | Maverik Stadium, Logan, UT |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 16 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | Spectrum PPV |
Hawaii vs Utah State Betting Trends
Hawaii vs Utah State Weather
