Hawaii at Wyoming Betting Odds & Pick: Value on Rainbow Warriors During Unique Road Trip (Friday, Oct. 30)

Hawaii at Wyoming Odds

Right off the bat, let’s address the elephant in the room. Since 2014, Hawaii has been a trainwreck on the road against the spread. The Rainbow Warriors’ 14-21-2 ATS road record ranks 121st out of 130 FBS programs.

This week, things are different from an itinerary standpoint. Instead of boarding a flight back to Hawaii following its 15-point win over Fresno State in the San Joaquin Valley on Saturday, the Rainbow Warriors headed east. Head coach Todd Graham opted to keep his troops on the mainland, stationing them in Denver for the week. This has taken a multi-stop, nine-hour-flight-time trip and reduced it to a two-hour bus ride.

This is just one reason why I like the Rainbow Warriors to build on their impressive season-opening win this weekend at Wyoming.

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

There was buzz this offseason that Hawaii and its Air Raid offense would undergo a significant overhaul. But given the team's personnel, I was banking on Graham and his staff to ease into a new identity.

Well, so much for that.

The Warriors galloped for 323 yards on 53 attempts. So, where is this coming from? Because it’s not Graham.

You have to keep in mind that Graham inherited a decent rushing attack at Arizona State and promptly took the ball away from his running backs in a desperate attempt to turn Arizona State into an uptempo spread-passing power. He failed to accomplish that but went down swinging, dialing up 35 pass attempts per game in his final season in Tempe.

The Warriors’ opener has verified a few things. The first being that Graham truly handed the reins of his offense over to GJ Kinne and Brennan Marion. Marion is the really interesting ingredient in this offensive stew, because he's the architect of the “GoGo offense.”

His offenses set FCS records and utilize strange backfield alignments (two running backs to the same side of the QB) and motion. He was the play-caller behind the largest point-spread upset in college football history (Howard's 43-40 win over UNLV), and it appears he has influenced the Warriors’ play-calling out of the gate.

This is great news for Hawaii quarterback Chevan Cordeiro. The redshirt sophomore is best suited to a run-first attack, given his dual-threat abilities. Under this new regime, Cordeiro already has a stat line of 20-for-31 for 229 yards through the air and 116 yards with a pair of touchdowns on the ground.

He can make this offense really sing while reducing momentum-killing turnovers. And that’s the key for Hawaii in 2020: reducing costly picks. It gave the football away 30 times last season, finishing dead last in FBS. If Hawaii had been merely average in that department, then its 10-5 campaign could have been truly special.

One game into the 2020 season, the turnover margin reads +3 for the Rainbow Warriors with a double-digit road victory to their credit. I feel like there’s more where that came from this season for Cordeiro and the new staff.

Wyoming Cowboys

Craig Bohl is an excellent coach, and the fact that he’s not only achieved success but also delivered stability to this program is a testament to his quality.

What he can’t do is play quarterback, and Wyoming is in need of one right now. Sean Chambers suffered his third season-ending injury in as many seasons, leaving the cupboard pretty bare. The Pokes did stage a late comeback against Nevada last weekend, but overall, Levi Williams struggled through the air.

The massive redshirt freshman kept plays alive with his legs, but he barely connected on half of his passes. Hawaii, meanwhile, was incredibly disruptive against Fresno State, notching six pass breakups and seven tackles for loss. That spells trouble for a 19-year-old making his second career start.

Defensively, things get even shakier for the Pokes. Nevada nearly broke 500 yards and killed Wyoming through the air all night. The fact that Wyoming surrendered just 76 yards on the ground was a byproduct of Nevada’s playcalling that chose to put the ball in the air a staggering 52 times. Wyoming was a dominant run defense last season, but it lost nearly half of its production (48%) and needed to replace six starters.

With limited film available on the Warriors' new-look and an offense that needs time to gel, I just don’t see this being a good matchup for the home team.

Betting Analysis & Pick

Tickets are split nearly down the middle on this game, but the handle is favoring Hawaii 70/30 as of publication. That’s an indicator of sharp money siding with the slight road dog.

I would have been gun shy of Hawaii in this spot had the game been accompanied by a long flight, but the unique circumstances surrounding its appearance in Laramie have me bullish on Graham and his boys.

I’ll be playing Hawaii on the moneyline and the alternate line at -9.5 (+275).

Pick: Hawaii Moneyline +100; Hawaii Alternate Line -9.5 (+275) (Lean)