College Football Betting: How Many Points Home Field Is Worth for Each Team

College Football Betting: How Many Points Home Field Is Worth for Each Team article feature image
  • Home-field advantage in college football has never been an exact science for oddsmakers.
  • Theories for home field include crowd hostility, altitude, temperature and stadium size.
  • Collin Wilson prefers weighted home ATS records to the standard 2.5 points assigned by some sportsbooks.

Myths of Home-Field Advantage in College Football

For years, I worked on getting a power rating system worthy of predicting the oddsmakers' opening line. The process was often like being on a game show, trying to forecast how a college football number would move and where it'd close at the sharpest books.

While my power ratings game is now locked down, I still find large discrepancies between how I value home-field advantage compared to the oddsmakers.

We all have plenty of theories for why some teams play better at home than others. Does altitude play a role for Mountain West teams? Does noise really play a factor, especially when coaches went to silent snap counts or signage with Scott Van Pelt's grill?

Home-Field Advantage Evolution

Stadium size and the use of straight-up records became the go-to metrics, but how fair is that argument without strength of opponent factored in?

A program could go through a rough stretch of scheduling, coaching changes, overall poor play and violations that alter recruiting. Or motorcycle rides could send a team spiraling.

As The Action Network's Danny Donahue pointed out last week, home-field advantage is really about if a home team can consistently beat the bookmakers. And generally, bettors overvalue home-field.

Since 2011 Boise State has posted the 3rd worst Home ATS record at 14-30 https://t.co/jsrRKF7Si1

— Collin Wilson (@_Collin1) April 20, 2018

Teams that deserve a point-spread advantage are the teams that consistently cover on their home field.

Conversely, if a team never covers the number at home, then it should get fewer than 2.5 points. Some even get less than a point.

While ESPN did a decent job of making PAE, it is solely based on points scored above the FPI power rankings, and not the Vegas closing number.

With that in mind, my home-field advantage is weighted on an against-the-spread number from a three- and 10-year sample size.

While the three-year home-field ATS record could represent changes in recruiting classes, coaching or stadium dynamics, a 10-year sample gives enough iterations to find the mean of home-field advantage.

The calculation weights the home ATS record, positive or negative, against a standard home-field advantage of 2.5 points.

I have personally weighted the 10-year sample set at 80%, with the three-year sample set at 20% of the final number.

This gives plenty of iterations against the mean to find a true home-field advantage.

You can adjust the mean (2.5) and weighted average, but rewarding teams that consistently beat oddsmakers at home should be your main goal.

About the Author
Collin is a Senior Writer for The Action Network, covering all things college football, college basketball and MLB. Wilson also contributes content on WWE, Game of Thrones, and various other topics.

Follow Collin Wilson @_Collin1 on Twitter/X.

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