The Houston Cougars (1-2) will travel up to Nippert Stadium this weekend to take on the Cincinnati Bearcats (2-1) at 12 p.m. ET on FS1.
In what was formerly an AAC rivalry, these two new Big 12 foes are looking to get their footing in this new league and build their programs back up to their previous heights.
Both of these teams are expected to finish towards the bottom half of the Big 12 this season, but it should be interesting to see which has the upper hand to this point in the year.
The Bearcats are currently a 3.5-point home favorite in a game with a total set at 46.5 points.
Let’s take a look at my Houston vs. Cincinnati prediction and best bet to see what I think is the best way to play this game.
Houston vs Cincinnati Odds, Pick
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -112 | 48 -110 / -110 | +136 |
| Cincinnati Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -108 | 48 -110 / -110 | -162 |
- Spread: Houston +3.5 (-112) · Cincinnati -3.5 (-108)
- Total: Over/Under 48
- Moneyline: Houston +136 · Cincinnati -162
- Pick: Houston -3.5
Houston vs Cincinnati Preview
Houston Betting Preview: Improvement on Defense
Houston started off the season with a big loss to UNLV before keeping things close with Oklahoma.
Last week, we saw the Cougars rebound in a big way against Rice, winning 33-7.
Will that be the Houston team we get this week, or will we see the offense that struggled mightily through the first couple of weeks?
Willie Fritz is in year one of his tenure and is installing a new offensive system. Only five starters returned to this unit, and it sure looked like this was the case over the first few weeks. Houston ranks 119th in offensive success rate and 81st in finishing drives to this point in the year.
The Cougars have leaned on their pass game at a slightly higher rate but to no avail. They rank 90th in passing success rate, 108th in passing PPA and 129th in passing explosiveness.
Houston ranks 124th in rushing success rate and 109th in rushing PPA, as well.
Houston’s defense has been a more positive story. It ranks seventh in success rate and 32nd in finishing drives despite ranking 129th in average field position. The Cougars have struggled with explosiveness, where they rank 86th.
Both the passing and rushing defense has been impressive for Houston. It ranks 20th in rushing success rate allowed and 26th in rushing PPA allowed.
The Cougars also rank ninth in passing success rate allowed and 24th in passing PPA allowed as this has been an all-around good defense. This has brought the unit up from 102nd in SP+ to end last season to 75th now through three weeks.
Cincinnati Betting Preview: Need More Explosive Plays
The Bearcats are 2-1, with their lone loss coming by one point when Pitt made a late-game comeback to steal a victory.
Cincinnati defeated FCS opponent Towson and Miami (OH) in the Victory Bell rivalry last weekend.
The Bearcats rank 27th in offensive success rate this season but just 121st in finishing drives. They're 23rd in passing success rate and 34th in passing PPA, as well as 46th in rushing success rate and 66th in rushing PPA.
This isn’t an explosive offense as it's 105th in rushing explosiveness and 80th in passing explosiveness.
Seven starters return to a Cincinnati defense that ranked 83rd in SP+ last season. It's struggled down-to-down this season, ranking 102nd in success rate allowed, including 79th against the pass and 115th against the run.
Cincinnati may be experiencing some growing pains with its defense. Tyson Veidt took over at defensive coordinator this season after spending the last eight years as a linebackers coach with Iowa State.
It'll be interesting to see if the Bearcats can improve as the season goes along.
Houston vs Cincinnati
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Houston and Cincinnati match up statistically:
Houston Offense vs. Cincinnati Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 122 | 115 | |
| Line Yards | 119 | 127 | |
| Pass Success | 89 | 79 | |
| Havoc | 123 | 52 | |
| Finishing Drives | 82 | 30 | |
| Quality Drives | 94 | 87 | |
Cincinnati Offense vs. Houston Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 46 | 9 | |
| Line Yards | 74 | 63 | |
| Pass Success | 23 | 17 | |
| Havoc | 58 | 61 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 120 | 25 | |
| Quality Drives | 12 | 28 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 66 | 39 |
| PFF Coverage | 17 | 15 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 131 | 60 |
| Middle 8 | 41 | 109 |
| Seconds per Play | 30.2 (113) | 27.9 (68) |
| Rush Rate | 54% (85) | 50% (92) |
Houston vs Cincinnati Pick & Prediction
I think that the Bearcats are a bit further ahead of Houston in their rebuild.
Cincinnati has been good on offense this season, including through the air.
On the other side, Houston’s offense hasn’t been good yet, and I’m not sure that it'll be at any point this season.
These two defenses are largely similar, so I think I lean towards the home team with the better offense in this matchup.
I’ll be taking Cincinnati at -3.5 to cover this spread and pick up the victory.
Pick: Cincinnati -3.5 (Play to -5.5)
How to Watch Houston vs Cincinnati Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, OH |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 21 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FS1 |
Houston vs Cincinnati Betting Trends
- Cincinnati is 1-2 against the spread in its first three games this season.
- Cincinnati is 1-0 in its road games against the spread.
