Houston vs Kansas Prediction, Pick, Odds for Saturday, October 19

The Kansas Jayhawks (1-5) will host the Houston Cougars (2-4) at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on Saturday afternoon. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET and the game will be aired on ESPN+.

Kansas is a 5.5-point favorite and this game has an over/under of 46 points.

There has already been some steam toward Kansas as the line has been moving in the Jayhawks' favor, but I think there may still be some value in taking the home team in this matchup. Let’s dive into my Kansas vs Houston predictions and college football picks for this NCAAF Week 8 game.

Houston vs Kansas Prediction

Saturday, Oct. 19

3:30 p.m. ET

ESPN+

Houston Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+5.5 -110	46 -110 / -110	+164

Kansas Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-5.5 -110	46 -110 / -110	-198

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.

• Houston vs Kansas Point Spread: Houston +5.5 (-110) · Kansas -5.5 (-110)
• Houston vs Kansas Total: Over/Under 46
• Houston vs Kansas Moneyline: Houston +164 · Kansas -198

Houston vs Kansas Preview

Houston Cougars Betting Preview: Can Cougars Get Back on Track?

Houston has had a rough start to the Willie Fritz era as it was 1-4 before picking up a win against TCU prior to the bye week. With a week to refresh, the Cougars may be on the verge of turning things around.

Zeon Chriss took over for Donovan Smith at quarterback as Smith wasn't playing well. Neither one has been great in limited action as Smith is averaging -0.31 EPA per dropback compared Chriss' -0.36. However, that didn’t matter against TCU as they averaged a 47th percentile EPA per dropback and a 63rd percentile offensive Success Rate as a team.

Houston ranks 119th in Success Rate and 81st in Offensive Finishing Drives. They are 84th in Explosiveness, 95th in Havoc allowed and 133rd in average field position.

The Cougars primarily pass the ball and rank 90th in Pass Success Rate compared to 124th in Rush Success Rate. The offensive line ranks 118th in PFF's Run Blocking grades and 48th in PFF's Pass Blocking grades.

Houston has been one of the best teams in the Big 12 on the defensive side of the ball. The Cougars rank seventh in Success Rate allowed and 32nd in Defensive Finishing Drives. They have been able to keep most opponents at 20 points or less as their faltering offense has been more responsible for their losses.

Against the pass, Houston ranks ninth in Pass Success Rate allowed and 24th in Pass PPA allowed. This is somewhat surprising as the Cougars rank 64th in PFF's Coverage grades and 129th in PFF's Pass Rush grades.

The Cougars rank 20th in Rush Success Rate allowed and 26th in Rush PPA allowed. They are 65th in PFF's Run Defense grades and 72nd in PFF's Tackling grades.

Kansas Jayhawks Betting Preview: What Has Gone Wrong?

Kansas came into the season with high hopes and was expected to contend for the Big 12 title. Instead, the Jayhawks are 1-5 and making a bowl game would take a miracle at this point. The Jayhawks aren't as bad as their record shows. They have four one-score losses, but they still haven't been what they were billed to be in the preseason.

Part of this is the loss of Andy Kotelnicki as offensive coordinator. With his departure to Penn State, this offense has lacked the explosiveness it had over the past couple of years. Kansas still ranks 19th in Offensive Success Rate and seventh in Offensive Finishing Drives, but is 102nd in Explosiveness.

Jalon Daniels hasn’t done anything special in the passing game, averaging only 0.01 EPA per dropback and a 43% Pass Success Rate. As a whole, Kansas ranks 49th in Pass Success rate, 74th in Pass PPA and 90th in Pass Explosiveness.

Kansas’ offensive line has been great, ranking 27th in PFF's Pass Blocking grades and sixth in PFF's Run Blocking grades. This has helped on the ground, where the Jayhawks spend 58% of the time and rank 12th in Rush Success Rate and 13th in Rush PPA.

Defensively, Kansas is 36th in Success Rate allowed and 42nd in Defensive Finishing Drives. The Jayhawks are also 28th in Havoc Rate and 78th in PFF's Pass Rush grades this year.

The Jayhawks rank 28th in Pass Success Rate allowed and 16th in Pass PPA allowed compared to 54th and 60th in those two categories against the run. I don’t think Kansas has faced a terribly difficult schedule of opposing offenses, which may skew these numbers, but they still look to be set up well against a poor Houston offense.

Houston vs Kansas

Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Houston and Kansas match up statistically:

Houston Offense vs. Kansas Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	119	110
Line Yards	118	118
Pass Success	103	83
Havoc	133	53
Finishing Drives	133	79
Quality Drives	107	100

Kansas Offense vs. Houston Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	30	17
Line Yards	4	51
Pass Success	48	36
Havoc	34	56
Finishing Drives	2	54
Quality Drives	85	39

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	73	97
PFF Coverage	66	80
Special Teams SP+	132	20
Middle 8	61	113
Seconds per Play	31.1 (130)	28.8 (98)
Rush Rate	59% (42)	58% (39)

Houston vs Kansas Pick & Prediction

Kansas may be 1-5, but I still think the Jayhawks are a decent team. Their offense lacks explosiveness, but they have a really good offensive line and have been productive down to down, especially when rushing.

Houston’s offense has been its main issue all season and I’m not counting on much of an improvement coming. Kansas’ defense is mostly unremarkable, but Houston hasn't been able to hold up on the offensive line in the run game, which I think could hurt them in this matchup.

At just 5.5 points, I like taking the Jayhawks to pull out a home win and cover this number. I would take this up to -6 as I think Kansas may be able to win comfortably.

Pick: Kansas -5.5 (-108, DraftKings) | Bet to Kansas -6 (-110)

Houston vs Kansas will be played at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas State, MO, on Saturday, Oct. 19, at 3:30 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on ESPN+.