Houston vs. Memphis Odds
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -115 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | +104 |
| Memphis Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -105 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | -125 |
Memphis rides its four-game win streak into Friday night when it hosts Houston in an AAC battle.
It's been a tough year for Dana Holgorsen's team. Three of Houston's first five games have gone to overtime, and it has lost two of them, including one to a third-string quarterback from Tulane last Friday night.
Houston still has a lot of the weapons from the team that went to the AAC Championship last year. If the Cougars want to get back there, this is a must-win game.
Memphis got pounded in its opening game at Mississippi State but has rebounded nicely, winning four games against a pretty weak schedule. The Tigers didn't have high expectations coming into the season, but a win here could keep Memphis in first place in the conference.
Houston Cougars
Cougar Offense
Houston's offense really struggled to move the ball against a really good Tulane secondary. The good news for the Cougars is that Memphis' secondary isn't anywhere close to that of Tulane's.
Clayton Tune didn't have a great start to the season, but he has started to heat up over the last two games.
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Image via PFF
He has one of the most dynamic wide receivers in college football to throw to in Nathaniel "Tank" Dell, who already has 454 receiving yards, five touchdowns and an 81.9 PFF receiving grade through five games.
Tune also has plenty of time to throw as well, as Houston has the 17th-best pass-blocking grade in college football, per PFF.
Houston is running the ball at a pretty high rate at over 54% of the time. It's been getting a solid push up front, ranking 33rd in Offensive Line Yards and 23rd in Stuff Rate Allowed, which has allowed its running back tandem of Brandon Campbell and Ta'Zhawn Henry to average 4.3 yards per carry.
However, the strength of the Memphis defense is the front seven, so this game is likely going to be in Tune's hands.
Cougar Defense
Houston has one of the best pass rushes in the country, putting up a 91.8 PFF pass-rushing grade through its first five games. But there are a lot of issues that still need to be sorted out.
Houston ranks 107th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 130th in Power Success Rate Allowed. That probably has a lot to do with the fact that it ranks 117th in terms of a tackling grade, per PFF.
Memphis, meanwhile, ranks around the FBS average in EPA/Rush, Rushing Success Rate and rushing explosiveness.
The Cougars had two new starting cornerbacks at the beginning of the season, and so far, it has not gone very well for them. The Cougars rank 55th in EPA/Pass Allowed and 72nd in Passing Success Rate Allowed after finishing in the top 20 last year.
It may be a struggle against Memphis quarterback Seth Henigan on Friday night.
Memphis Tigers
Tigers Offense
After three incredible games to start the season that included an average of over 11 yards per attempt and a PFF passing grade over 82, Henigan came back down to earth and had two of the worst games of his career against North Texas and Temple.
He averaged under 5.0 yards per attempt and had five turnover-worthy plays, which is concerning — but he was missing his starting left tackle and left guard for the game against Temple. He's going to need both of them back against Houston's pass rush, so that's something to monitor throughout the week.
Memphis has a trio of running backs right now in Brandon Thomas, Asa Martin and Jevyon Ducker. The group averages 5.03 yards per carry despite having an offensive line that ranks 77th in Offensive Line Yards and 114th in run blocking, per PFF.
So, as long as they can get into the open field, they should be able to get going against Houston's poor run defense.
Memphis HB Jeyvon Ducker was out there just collecting ankles today👀😯 pic.twitter.com/yhuQasqsfd
— Billy Moy (@PFF_Billy) September 18, 2022
Tigers Defense
The Tigers defense has been really average so far this season. It's allowing 5.5 yards per play while ranking 60th in EPA/Play Allowed and 73rd in Success Rate Allowed.
The weak link of the defensive unit has been the secondary. The Tigers are allowing 8.0 yards per attempt and rank 104th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 93rd in EPA/Pass Allowed.
They did play Mississippi State's Air Raid in their first game, but their last four games have been against Navy, Arkansas State, North Texas and Temple — not exactly murderer's row.
The front seven has been decent against the run, allowing only 3.2 yards per carry and ranking in the top 50 in EPA/Rush Allowed and Rushing Success Rate Allowed.
However, it also ranks 90th in Stuff Rate and 91st in Power Success Rate Allowed. On top of that, this is the best rushing offense it's seen so far this season.
Houston vs. Memphis Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Houston and Memphis match up statistically:
Houston Offense vs. Memphis Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 65 | 44 | |
| Line Yards | 33 | 54 | |
| Pass Success | 61 | 104 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 17 | 58 | |
| Havoc | 59 | 110 | |
| Finishing Drives | 31 | 79 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Memphis Offense vs. Houston Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 68 | 103 | |
| Line Yards | 77 | 67 | |
| Pass Success | 44 | 72 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 90 | 1 | |
| Havoc | 79 | 33 | |
| Finishing Drives | 43 | 45 |  |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 117 | 40 |
| PFF Coverage | 60 | 66 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 39 | 10 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.1 (59) | 24.4 (30) |
| Rush Rate | 54.4% (63) | 52.7% (72) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Houston vs. Memphis Betting Pick
Both of these teams are pretty efficient once they get inside the opponent's 40-yard line, ranking in the top 45 in Finishing Drives. I'm looking for both offenses to have a good day against some pretty below-average defenses.
Both of these teams love to play fast, with Memphis running a play every 23.42 seconds (28th in FBS) and Houston doing so every 25.26 seconds (53rd).
I have 68.3 points projected for this game, so I like the value of over 57 points.
