The Idaho Vandals (4-2) travel to Bozeman to take on the Montana State Bobcats (6-0) on Saturday, Oct. 12. The game kicks off at 10:15 p.m. ET and can be seen live on ESPN2.
Montana State enters this game as a -7.5 favorite with the over/under set at 54.5.
So, where does the betting value lie in this late-night FCS clash? Let's dive into my Idaho vs. Montana State predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 12.
Idaho Vandals vs Montana State Bobcats Prediction
- Idaho vs Montana State Pick: Under 54.5
My Montana State vs Idaho best bet is on both teams to stay under the total.
Idaho vs Montana State Odds, Spread, Line
| Idaho Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -112 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | +245 |
| Montana State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -109 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | -315 |
- Idaho vs Montana State Spread: Montana State -9.5
- Idaho vs Montana State Over/Under: 55.5 Points
- Idaho vs Montana State Moneyline: Idaho ML +245 · Montana State ML -315
Idaho Football vs Montana State Football Preview
Idaho Vandals Betting Preview: Clutch Defense Leading the Way
Idaho comes into this contest off a home win last week against Northern Arizona.
The Vandal defense held NAU to just 3.8 yards per carry and forced two turnovers in the second half. A late goal-line stand by Idaho was crucial in securing the win.
This was the third time this season that a team has had a chance late in the fourth quarter to drive for the winning score, but the Vandal defense has risen to the occasion all three times.
The Vandals' stop unit continues to impress this season, holding opponents to 354 yards and 19 points per game despite facing tough nonconference opponents in Oregon, Wyoming and Abilene Christian.
Montana State Bobcats Betting Preview: Booming Bobs
Montana State is coming off a convincing home win over Big Sky foe Northern Colorado in a game the Bobcats controlled throughout.
The Bobs built a 27-0 halftime lead before the teams traded scores in the second half of the 55-17 win.
The Bobcat offense has been clicking in recent weeks, averaging 46 points and 487 yards per game over their last four contests. Montana State has relied on its physical rushing attack, which has racked up 1,100 yards on 6.5 yards per carry during that stretch.
Of concern has been the Montana State defense, which has not had the same sense of intensity that we've seen from it in the past.
The defense has played lights-out in the first half of games this year, but when rotational players in the two-deep see the field, the performance has not been good.
This Idaho team will provide a tougher test than most of Montana State's opponents thus far.
How to Bet My Idaho vs Montana State Pick
I like the under in this matchup between two top-10 FCS programs.
Montana State has played a significantly weaker schedule to this point in the season and has feasted on weak defenses. As fun as new Mexico is to watch offensively, the Lobos defense is a mess. Of the five FCS defenses the Bobcats have faced, only Maine ranks inside the top 100.
The scores look really good for Montana State, but the competition has to be considered when assessing the offensive output.
Idaho held Oregon to just 24 points and frustrated the Ducks with three sacks and six tackles for loss. The Idaho stop unit also stepped up on fourth down a couple of times in the second half to keep the Ducks off the scoreboard.
Montana State runs the ball on 70% of its offensive snaps. While the run game has been successful and has worn down inferior opponents, the Bobcats are not overly explosive. They have just 10 explosive runs over 20 yards in their five games against FCS competition, and we haven't seen nearly as many quarterback runs as we have in the past
The offense has been lacking chunk plays, and the challenge is going to be tough against a stout Idaho run defense. The Vandals are allowing just 2.8 yards per carry and 93 rushing yards per game on the season thanks to one of the best defensive line units in FCS.
Idaho has had its own offensive challenges this season, most notably at the quarterback position.
Jack Layne began the season as the starter but has been injured the last several weeks. Backup Jack Wagner has completed just 51% of his passes for 703 yards in four games, but he's also hurt with a lingering shoulder injury.
Tight end Jake Cox had two touchdown receptions this season and is also out for the year with an injury.
There's only so much Idaho is going to be able to do with rotating a second- and third-string quarterback in a tough road environment.
The Vandals are likely to lean on their running game and use caution in the passing game to avoid sudden-change situations for their defense.
Montana State has been solid at stopping the run and limiting explosive plays against FCS competition when its primary unit has been out there.
This game will be a four-quarter battle, and I expect a full and focused effort from the Bobcats' defensive unit behind their home fans. Montana State will pull away late in this lower-scoring battle.
Pick: Under 54.5
Idaho vs Montana State Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | Bobcat Stadium, Bozeman, MT |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 12 |
| Kickoff Time: | 10:15 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN2 |
Montana State vs Idaho Weather
