The march to the College Football Playoff continues for the Illinois Fighting Illini (6-1, 3-1 Big Ten) and Oregon Ducks (7-0, 4-0), who find themselves on a Week 9 collision course. The game kicks off at 3:30 p.m. ET and can be streamed live on CBS.
Oregon logged a win in one of the biggest marquee games of the season, knocking out Ohio State, 32-31, in Week 7. That energy from Autzen Stadium will be needed once again when the Fighting Illini make their lone West Coast trip this weekend.
Head coach Bret Bielema is headed for a breakout season with Illinois, already eclipsing a preseason win total of 5.5. The lone loss for the Fighting Illini came in a 21-7 defeat against Penn State, but a 2-touchdown victory over Michigan in Week 8 has Illinois in the thick of the Big Ten race.
An opener of 23.5 was quickly knocked down to Oregon -21.5, where there has been no movement throughout the betting week.
The same goes for a total of 54.5, a number that has been stable on the odds board sitting just below the biggest key number in college football totals of 55.
Let's take a look at my Illinois vs Oregon predictions and college football picks for Saturday.
Illinois vs. Oregon Odds
| Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+22 -110 | 54.5 -110 / -110 | +950 |
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-22 -110 | 54.5 -110 / -110 | -1700 |
- Illinois vs Oregon spread: Oregon -22
- Illinois vs Oregon over/under: 54.5 points
- Illinois vs Oregon moneyline: Oregon -1700
Illinois vs. Oregon Picks and Predictions
- Illinois vs. Oregon pick: Under 55
Prediction
My Illinois vs Oregon best bet is on the under, with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Moneyline
I have no pick on the moneyline. Instead, I'm targeting the over/under.
Against the Spread
I have no pick against the spread — I'm targeting the over/under.
Over/Under
I'm taking under 55 points in this Big Ten duel between Illinois and Oregon.
Illinois Football vs Oregon Football Betting Preview
Despite a 6-1 record, there's reason to believe Illinois may have already overachieved from a second-order win total perspective.
Penn State soundly beat the Fighting Illini on Sept. 28, but the results in multiple other wins are under a microscope.
Illinois defeated Kansas in nonconference action but generated a 43% post-game win expectancy thanks to four turnovers from the Jayhawks. Purdue raced back from a 24-3 Illinois halftime lead to nearly win the game in overtime. Finally, Bielema's team struggled to put Michigan away at home in Week 8 because of renewed focus and efficiency in the Wolverines' passing game.
One of the biggest problems plaguing the Illinois offense is a rank of 115th in Havoc Allowed. The offensive line has given up 53 tackles for loss, while quarterback Luke Altmyer has seen 91 pressures in just 223 dropbacks this season.
The fourth-year signal-caller from Ole Miss has posted a career-high in mistakes with a crowded pocket, nearly doubling the number of turnover-worthy plays than big-time throws with pressure.
However, when Altmyer is not under duress, there's a good chance of pass explosives to targets Zakhari Franklin and Pat Bryant.
I don’t know what the defense was doing for the entire 2nd half or what the staff was thinking going for 2 from Rantoul or why bad Purdue teams have had their way with the #illini since I was in Champaign.
I do know:
Luke Altmyer is THE guy.
My goodness.pic.twitter.com/AhR3qCXOuf
— Lafferty, Daniel (@TheGoldenArmMTG) October 12, 2024
The 2-4-5 defense has had severe struggles against the opponent rush. Illinois ranks as a bottom-15 team in all of FBS concerning opponent rush efficiency.
The numbers fall even further in terms of Line Yards, a measurement of how well offensive lines have created running lanes for running backs. Despite horrific numbers in defensive rush analytics like Stuff Rate, Illinois has been fantastic at eliminating opponent explosive plays.
Defensive coordinator Aaron Henry has been fantastic when opponents look to score, giving up an average of 2.9 points in 38 opponent trips inside the extended red zone.
Oregon experienced no hangover in its first road trip that crossed two time zones. While other former Pac-12 teams have struggled in the original Big Ten, the Ducks defense blanked Purdue's offense.
Even more impressive is the schedule, as Oregon traveled to West Lafayette with just six days to prepare after beating Ohio State.
The rushing attack has helped stabilize the team in any environment, dominating with multiple run concepts including zone read, counter and straight-up power formations.
Jordan James logged two touchdowns against the Boilermakers, averaging 3.7 yards after first contact this season.
Jordan James x 2️⃣
He punches it in for another @oregonfootball TD 👊#B1GFootball on FOX 📺 pic.twitter.com/uDaFZsfeZR
— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) October 19, 2024
Head coach Dan Lanning has produced one of the best Havoc defenses in the nation, thanks to a top-20 pass rush and a secondary that swats anything in the air.
Defensive interior Derrick Harmon ranks 15th in PFF's individual pass-rush productivity ranks, a calculation of sacks, hits and hurries.
The coverage unit grades out as the second-best in FBS, led by cornerbacks Jabbar Muhammad and Brandon Johnson with 11 combined forced incompletions.
If there's an area to attack Oregon, it's on the ground. A Success Rate outside the top 50 correlates to mid-FBS ranks against the run concepts of zone read and man blocking.
Illinois vs Oregon Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Illinois and Oregon match up statistically:
Illinois Offense vs. Oregon Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 89 | 56 | |
| Line Yards | 63 | 73 | |
| Pass Success | 25 | 21 |  |
| Havoc | 115 | 13 | |
| Finishing Drives | 54 | 63 | |
| Quality Drives | 16 | 15 | |
Oregon Offense vs. Illinois Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 30 | 118 | |
| Line Yards | 38 | 128 | |
| Pass Success | 5 | 52 | |
| Havoc | 25 | 85 | |
| Finishing Drives | 46 | 15 | |
| Quality Drives | 25 | 31 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 9 | 66 |
| PFF Coverage | 41 | 2 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 8 | 27 |
| Middle 8 | 28 | 94 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.0 (109) | 27.3 (69) |
| Rush Rate | 57% (47) | 51% (73) |
How To Make College Football Picks For My Illinois Fighting Illini vs Oregon Ducks Prediction
The main driver of Illinois points comes from big plays in the passing game, as the Illini rank top-20 in passing downs EPA.
However, producing explosives could be fruitless against an Oregon defense that's 21st in Opponent Passing EPA. Outside of the outstanding play at cornerback, safeties Kobe Savage and Tysheem Johnson are both top-60 of all coverage players at their position.
The challenge for Oregon in a home game with a spread of three touchdowns is the ability to create explosives. The Ducks have produced just two rushing attempts of 30 yards or more all season.
Conversely, Illinois has allowed only two 30-yard runs on the season.
Quarterback Dillon Gabriel will be expected to lead his offense into scoring position, but a pesky Illinois defense has been successful in creating contested catches this season. The plan for Gabriel could be short passing, as the season-long average depth of target sits at 6.7 yards.
Our Action Network projections are closely aligned with the market, putting Oregon at -20 with a total of 54. Because each defense has the ability to limit quality drives and explosives, scoring opportunities will be at a premium.
Neither offense has played clean in the extended red zone with a rank outside the top 45 in Finishing Drives.
The under is the play, but the market sits a half-point shy on the biggest key number in college football totals. Buying a half point in the totals market is never suggested unless 55 is the number.
Look to shop for the key of 55 no higher than -125.
Pick: Under 55 or Better
Oregon vs Illinois Start Time, TV Channel, Location, How to Watch
| Location: | Autzen Stadium, Eugene, OR |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 26 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | CBS |
Illinois duels Oregon in Eugene, Oregon, on Saturday, Oct. 26, at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
Oregon vs Illinois Betting Trends
- 69% of bets and 88% of the money are on Illinois to cover the spread
- 50% of bets and 93% of the money are on the over
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
Oregon vs Illinois Weather
