If seeing Penn State (3-0) and Illinois (4-0) on the calendar doesn’t immediately conjure up memories of the greatest college football game ever played, do you even know ball?
It’s been just three years since the Illini topped Penn State inside Beaver Stadium, using a remarkable nine overtime periods to do so in a game that saw all of a combined 38 points.
The barnburner was one of the chief catalysts for the current overtime structure and marks one of the few times in recent history that Illinois found success in beating the Nittany Lions. The Illini are just 2-11 in their last 13 meetings against Penn State.
The stakes this weekend are much higher than the overtime spectacular, with both teams ranked, undefeated and with playoff hopes still firmly intact. While the Nittany Lions have yet to play a ranked team, the Illini have twice beaten top-25 sides.
The Illini own the better resume to this point of the season, yet they enter the matchup as sizable three-score underdogs. Will Saturday night serve as their national coming-out party? Here's my Illinois vs. Penn State prediction.
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Penn State Nittany Lions Prediction
- Penn State vs. Illinois Pick: Over 47.5
My Illinois-PSU best bet is on the over team total under, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Illinois vs. Penn State Odds, Spread, Line
| Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+17.5 -105 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +625 |
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-17.5 -115 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -900 |
- Illinois vs. Penn State Point Spread: Illinois +17.5 · Penn State -17.5
- Illinois vs. Penn State Total: Over/Under 47.5
- Illinois vs. Penn State Moneyline: Illinois +625 · Penn State -900
Illinois Fighting Illini Football
Luke Altmyer has improved so much. He’s focused. He’s having fun. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a dark horse for the Heisman.
That might be a bit much, but the junior quarterback is playing his best football to date and leads the Big Ten with 10 passing touchdowns and a remarkable zero interceptions.
He has the Illini ranked 16th in Pass Success, thanks in large part to one of the Big Ten’s best 1-2 receiver punches in Pat Bryant and Zakhari Franklin. The duo has combined for 41 catches, 500-plus yards and six receiving touchdowns in Illinois’ first four games.
Success on the ground has been a little more elusive for the Illini, who sitting in the bottom half of the conference in most rushing metrics. The offensive line has occasionally struggled, ranking 78th nationally in Havoc Allowed and tied for second to last in the Big Ten with 24 tackles for loss allowed.
The defense, while not in the upper echelon of units in the conference, has done an admirable job thus far in limiting the damage from two of college football's more talented quarterbacks. The Illini forced four turnovers from Kansas’ Jalon Daniels, and last week, while Nebraska's Dylan Raiola nearly passed for 300 yards, it only resulted in 24 total points for the Cornhuskers.
Penn State will be the most well-rounded offense the Illini have seen to date, but if Illinois can limit the explosive plays the Nittany Lions have been so successful in creating this season, this defense is good enough to keep the game within reach.
Penn State Nittany Lions Football
After years of offensive ineptitude and the defense stealing the show, Penn State (3-0) finally has an offense worthy of College Football Playoff chatter. That statement was never more apparent than a week ago, when the Nittany Lions dropped a program-record 718 yards on one of the worst FBS teams, Kent State.
Drew Allar continues to look like an actual dark horse Heisman candidate, with the junior passer completing over 70 percent of his passes with an 8-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Notably, he’s taking more risks and striking for bigger plays, a theme central to the new Andy Kotelnicki offense.
Under Kotelnicki’s retooled offense, Penn State already ranks seventh in EPA, 13th in success rate and third in explosive play percentage. In Penn State’s record-setting performance against Kent State, 448 of the Nittany Lions’ 718 yards came by way of the explosive play.
After what could be described as a lackluster sophomore season, running back Nick Singleton has rediscovered his mojo. The junior tailback is averaging 8.5 yards per carry and is a dangerous receiving option, where he’s also added two touchdowns to his season ledger.
While the offense has made marked improvements, the defense hasn’t skipped a beat either. Tom Allen’s unit is one of 13 defenses nationally holding opponents to fewer than four yards per play, and last week against Kent State, the Golden Flash offense averaged 21.7 seconds per yard gained.
If there’s one area where improvement can be had, it’s in the secondary. Bowling Green found early passing success against Penn State's defense, and the absence of injured safety KJ Winston further compounds that potential weakness.
Illinois vs Penn State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Illinois and Penn State match up statistically:
Illinois Offense vs. Penn State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 101 | 13 | |
| Line Yards | 67 | 9 | |
| Pass Success | 16 | 34 | |
| Havoc | 78 | 25 | |
| Finishing Drives | 34 | 70 | |
| Quality Drives | 25 | 26 |  |
Penn State Offense vs. Illinois Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 34 | 51 | |
| Line Yards | 14 | 71 | |
| Pass Success | 3 | 68 | |
| Havoc | 20 | 62 | |
| Finishing Drives | 5 | 32 | |
| Quality Drives | 15 | 29 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 8 | 34 |
| PFF Coverage | 28 | 51 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 14 | 75 |
| Middle 8 | 36 | 14 |
| Seconds per Play | 30.1 (121) | 28.5 (91) |
| Rush Rate | 57% (43) | 65% (10) |
How to Bet My Illinois vs. Penn State Pick
It’s rare an Illinois-Penn State matchup brings this much juice. James Franklin has called for “White Out Energy,” and Brett Bielema responded accordingly with a “Whatever the hell that means.”
While not Penn State’s actual White Out game (Washington gets that treat), Bielema and Co. are in line to find out what it means to play in one of college football’s most hostile environments. However, 17.5 points is too big of a spread to feel confident in backing a largely untested Nittany Lions squad.
We know Penn State has a much-improved offense that is capable of putting up high scores, but the true quality of its defense is still a bit unknown.
Bowling Green is actually a quality opponent, but the success its passing offense had against Penn State bodes well for Altmyer and the talented Illini pass-catching duo, especially with the absence of Winston.
The public still thinks of Illinois as having the lackluster offense that has defined the program the past few years, and that is reflected in the total being as low as it is.
The Nittany Lions will win this, and their offense shouldn't have much trouble scoring, but the Illini offense is more than capable of finding the end zone a few times as well, helping to push this game over the total.
Pick: Over 47.5 (Play to 48.5)
How to Watch Penn State vs. Illinois
