The Incarnate Word Cardinals (11-2) heads to Brookings on Saturday, Dec. 14 to take on South Dakota State Jackrabbits (11-2) in FCS quarterfinal action. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPN.
These two squared off early in the season in Brookings with South Dakota State grabbing a 45-24 win in a game that was much closer than the final score indicated.
The previous contest was tied midway through the third quarter, and SDSU led just 31-24 with 11 minutes to play. This should be a very interesting game played in frigid temperatures on Saturday morning.
The Jacks come in as heavy -18.5 favorites with the over/under set at 55.5.
Let's take a look at my Incarnate Word vs. South Dakota State predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Dec. 14.
Incarnate Word vs South Dakota State Prediction
- Incarnate Word vs. South Dakota State Pick: Incarnate Word Team Total Under 17.5
My South Dakota State vs. Incarnate Word best bet is on the Cardinals to stay under their team total. Find the best line on our live NCAAF odds page.
Incarnate Word vs South Dakota State Odds
| Incarnate Word Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+18.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 / -110 | +650 |
| South Dakota State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-18.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 / -110 | -950 |
- Incarnate Word vs South Dakota State Spread: Incarnate Word +18.5 (-110) · South Dakota State -18.5 (-110)
- Incarnate Word vs South Dakota State Over/Under: 54.5 Points
- Incarnate Word vs South Dakota State Moneyline: Incarnate Word +650 · South Dakota State -950
Incarnate Word vs South Dakota State Preview
Incarnate Word Cardinals Betting Preview: Putting Up a Fight
Incarnate Word comes into this one off a low-scoring 13-6 win over Villanova at home last week.
The game was affected by poor weather and great defensive play, which limited the offensive output.
The game's first touchdown came with 14:08 left in the fourth quarter when UIW quarterback and former Texas A&M signal-caller Zach Calzada threw a 17-yard screen pass touchdown to Roy Alexander to give the Cardinals a 10-6 lead.
Incarnate Word would kick a field goal to extend the lead, and Villanova never threatened to score in the final frame.
After being in a really competitive game against the Jacks in the first meeting, UIW has to feel like it has a shot this week with better execution and a few key defensive changes.
Defensively, Incarnate Word has really improved from the start of the season, and the last five performances lead me to believe there can be some resistance put up here to keep this game from going completely sideways.
UIW has held four of its last five opponents under 100 yards rushing and has allowed just 2.5 yards per carry during that stretch.
During that same five-game stretch, the front seven has registered 20 sacks. The unit is playing better and with more confidence, as they held Villanova to just 138 total yards and six points last week.
South Dakota State Jackrabbits Betting Preview: Jacks Keep Rolling
South Dakota State was as dominant as it could possibly be in a playoff game with its 35-18 victory over Montana last week.
The Jacks led, 21-3, at half after Griffin Wilde hauled in two long touchdown passes in the second quarter. SDSU would extend its lead to 35-3 early in the fourth quarter.
Montana had 140 offensive pards through three quarters before scoring twice in the fourth quarter against Jackrabbit backups.
SDSU quarterback Mark Gronowski was efficient once again for the run-heavy Jackrabbits, completing 12-of-16 passes for 151 yards and the two scores to Wilde.
Defensively, the Jacks' coverage unit, led by safety Tucker Large, is full of physical players who are unafraid to step up to make tackles in the run game along with playing lockdown coverage.
SDSU figures to be tested by this UIW passing attack led by Calzada and his 34 passing touchdowns this season. The Cardinals also have two exquisite all-conference wide receivers in Jalen Walthall and Alexander, who both have over 1,000 receiving yards and 26 combined touchdown catches.
Incarnate Word is sure to take some deep shots with its receiving weapons in this one, especially when trailing late in the game.
Incarnate Word vs South Dakota State Pick & Prediction
I'll play the Incarnate Word team total under 17.5 here.
South Dakota State is playing absolutely elite defense this year . It has allowed just 9.2 points per game since the Week 2 meeting with IUW back in September.
The run defense has been consistently solid, holding teams to just 88 yards per game and 2.9 yards per carry on the ground while securing 80 tackles for loss. The defensive line and linebacker groups have graded out exceptionally well in PFF’s Tackling grade metrics and are rarely caught out of position.
SDSU is elite on third down this season, allowing just 28.9% of third down attempts to be converted. UIW is not overly efficient on third down, and I can see a desired game plan to at least attempt to run the ball on early downs in order to get to favorable third-down situations.
The SDSU red-zone defense has also been off the charts this year. In just 25 total possessions of red-zone defense, the Jacks have surrendered just nine touchdowns all season. That's an elite mark for any level of football.
The other concern here is that the Cardinals are going to also be battling below-freezing temperatures. It will feel a lot colder in Brookings when a team is on the brink of a season-ending loss and the morale diminishes.
We saw weather inhibit the UIW offense last week at home against Villanova, and I can see this offense really struggling here in the cold while facing a locked-in and motivated defense.
Get a number above 17, and take the UIW team total under.
Pick: Incarnate Word Team Total Under 17.5 (Play to 17)
Incarnate Word vs South Dakota State Start Time, TV Channel, Location, How to Watch
| Location: | Dana J. Dykhouse Stadium, Brookings, SD |
| Date: | Saturday, Dec. 14 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
Incarnate Word vs South Dakota State Weather
