Indiana vs Michigan State Odds
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 47 -110o / -110u | +330 |
| Michigan State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 47 -110o / -110u | -410 |
Indiana started off the year 3-0 but quickly fell back to earth once they got into the meat of their schedule. The Hoosiers now sit at 3-7 and won’t have a chance to get to .500 for the second year in a row.
Michigan State needs one win over the next two weekends in order to become bowl eligible. With a trip to Penn State on the docket for next weekend, the Spartans will want to get that out of the way this Saturday.
Indiana has been terrible all-around this year, but there might be a chance to see them score against Michigan State’s secondary while the Spartans will likely have a successful day offensively as well.
Indiana Hoosiers
Hoosiers Offense
Indiana started this year with a great record, but that was a bit misleading as to what they actually were.
The Hoosiers’ defense can take most of the blame, but the offense has struggled as well. They rank 119th in Offensive Success Rate, 101st in points per opportunity, and 96th in explosiveness. SP+ ranks this as the 66th-best offense in the country but just 128th in PFF grades.
The Hoosiers pass at the fifth-highest rate in the country but are just 111th in Success Rate and 122nd PPA.
Transfer Connor Bazelak came in to get a fresh start at Indiana, but it has not gone quite as planned. He's averaging -0.10 EPA per dropback and has nine interceptions on the year. Out of 88 quarterbacks this year who have played in 50% of their team's passing snaps this year, Bazelak ranks dead last in PFF passing grade.
When the Hoosiers do resort to running the ball, they haven’t found much success. They rank 113th in Success Rate this season but have been able to break a big one from time to time. Indiana ranks 56th in rushing explosiveness this season and 91st in rushing PPA.
Hoosiers Defense
To put it lightly, defense has not been Indiana’s strong suit this year. It ranks 95th in Defensive Success Rate, 115th in PFF grades and 112th in SP+.
Most of the Hoosiers' issues have come through the air. Indiana has faced the 23rd-highest rate of pass plays this year and has gotten thrashed. The Hoosiers rank 128th in Passing Success Rate against and 125th in Passing PPA. Their 50.7 PFF coverage grade ranks 126th in the country.
They haven’t had to face too many heavy rushing attacks this season, but Indiana has been good when they have. They rank 34th in Rushing Success Rate, 16th in PPA, and 23rd in rushing explosiveness allowed.
Michigan State Spartans
Spartans Offense
This year, the Spartans’ offense has been fairly average. They rank 70th in Success Rate and 49th in SP+. They're toward the middle of the pack in both Passing and Rushing Success Rates, ranking 64th and 80th, respectively.
There’s nothing terribly exciting about this offense outside of the fact that they will get to face Indiana’s defense.
MSU will need to lean into their passing game in order to put up huge numbers on this Indiana defense, as they have been mostly competent at stopping the run. The Spartans pass at the 28th-highest rate in the country, so chances are that they will lean into this advantage.
Spartans Defense
Michigan State’s defense hasn’t been quite up to par with where it has been over the years.
It ranks 57th in SP+ and are 106th in Overall Success Rate. The Spartans are 51st in points per opportunity but have been assisted by having the sixth-best average starting field position.
Indiana has a pass-heavy offense that is largely ineffective. This may match up decently against a Michigan State passing defense that has been among the worst in the country. The Spartans rank 121st in Passing Success Rate and 123rd in Passing PPA.
They have been better against the run this season as they rank 67th in Success Rate and 42nd in PPA on the ground. Indiana’s rushing offense likely won’t pose much of a threat to Michigan State as it ranks 36th in rushing explosiveness, taking away the only potential advantage that Indiana had.
Indiana vs Michigan State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Indiana and Michigan State match up statistically:
Indiana Offense vs. Michigan State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 114 | 67 | |
| Line Yards | 129 | 84 | |
| Pass Success | 111 | 120 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 119 | 76 | |
| Havoc | 112 | 95 | |
| Finishing Drives | 101 | 52 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Michigan State Offense vs. Indiana Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 80 | 34 | |
| Line Yards | 88 | 64 | |
| Pass Success | 64 | 128 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 18 | 127 | |
| Havoc | 51 | 112 | |
| Finishing Drives | 67 | 87 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 113 | 63 |
| PFF Coverage | 126 | 117 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 43 | 104 |
| Seconds per Play | 19.9 (1) | 24.6 (29) |
| Rush Rate | 41.6% (126) | 46.9% (108) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Indiana vs Michigan State Betting Pick
Michigan State’s offense should be able to find success against a terrible Indiana defense in this one. On the other side, I don’t have too much faith in Indiana but they may be able to pass against Michigan State’s secondary a bit.
The forecast this weekend is calling for potential snow but unless there are high winds, I don’t know that this will affect this game too much.
I believe that this total is likely too low as neither defense has been outstanding this season.
Pick: Over 47.5 (Play to 48.5) |
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