The Indiana Hoosiers enter this week 9-0 after an absolute demolition of a win on the road at Michigan State, 47-10, last week.
They now sit at No. 8 in the College Football Playoff rankings after last week's win, and they're looking to continue their rise to the CFP without any hiccups.
This week, they play host to the defending national champions, the Michigan Wolverines.
Michigan is now 5-4 on the season, but it will need to find one more win to secure a bowl bid in new head coach Sherrone Moore’s first season at the helm.
That will be easier said than done, as the Wolverines still have to play both Indiana and Ohio State.
While playing spoiler would be great for the Wolverines, it won’t be easy against Curt Cignetti’s squad.
The sportsbooks expect a comfortable win, as Indiana enters this game as a 14-point favorite. If it does play out that way, it's likely that both teams will force the ball through the air.
Michigan’s defense has been most vulnerable against the pass, and Indiana’s quarterback is finally healthy again.
Meanwhile, the Wolverines have gone back to their first starting quarterback this season in Davis Warren, and he has looked improved over the last two weeks.
Factor in that Cignetti is a psychopath, and those factors are the ones that we have leaned into for this same-game parlay.
Let's get to my Indiana vs. Michigan picks and +625 same-game parlay for College Football Week 11.
Indiana vs. Michigan Odds
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -650 |
| Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +460 |
- Indiana vs. Michigan Spread: Indiana -14.5 · Michigan +14.5
- Indiana vs. Michigan Over/Under: 48.5 Points
- Indiana vs. Michigan Moneyline: Indiana -650 · Michigan +460
Indiana vs. Michigan Picks, Predictions, Same-Game Parlay
- Kurtis Rourke 250+ Passing Yards (-145)
- Davis Warren 150+ Passing Yards (-145)
- Indiana -20.5 Alt. Spread (+144)
Parlay Odds: +625 via DraftKings
Please always remember to bet responsibly. SGPs are long shots for a reason.
Indiana Player Prop: Kurtis Rourke 250+ Passing Yards (-145)
The overhyped Michigan passing defense has been vulnerable to elite passing attacks all season. Michigan has pros all over its defense but ranks just 84th in Pass Success Rate allowed on the season.
Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel torched the Wolverines for 294 yards passing last week, joining Washington QB Will Rogers, Minnesota QB Max Brosmer and USC QB Miller Moss as the many quarterbacks who have topped 250-plus passing yards against this Wolverines defense.
“Elite” may not be a good enough word to describe this Hoosiers passing attack. Indiana ranks first nationally in Pass Success Rate, and when it gets in striking distance, it capitalizes.
This squad sits seventh nationally in Quality Drives and third in Finishing Drives.
Kurtis Rourke is back at full strength, and he threw for 263 yards against Michigan State last week. He has hit 250 in six of his seven games, only failing to reach that mark in the game he got hurt against Nebraska.
Indiana will be throwing often, and this should be a line worth smashing.
Michigan Player Prop: Davis Warren 150+ Passing Yards
Given the likely game script, that makes Michigan’s quarterback to hit 150 yards a good play as well.
Indiana has been known to jump on teams early, and until last week at Michigan State, it had not trailed once all season long. After falling behind 10-0, the Hoosiers rattled off 47 unanswered points.
Cignetti won’t let a slow start happen again, and if the Hoosiers jump on the Wolverines early, Michigan will have to turn away from its run game.
That’s a good plan against Indiana’s defense, which ranks nine spots better in Rush Success Rate allowed than it does in Pass Success Rate allowed.
Since winning the starting QB job back, Warren has looked much improved, finishing with his two highest QBR games of the season in the win over Michigan State and the loss to Oregon.
He completed 12-of-21 passes last week for 164 yards against the Ducks, but Michigan should be looking to air it out even more against Indiana given our expected game script here.
Spread: Indiana -20.5 (+144)
Have I mentioned that Cignetti is insane yet?
The likely Coach of the Year in college football took over at Indiana and immediately made headlines for yelling “Purdue sucks! So does Michigan and Ohio State!” at his introductory celebration.
Since then, Indiana has gone 9-0 and is headed for the College Football Playoff. Google it.
Cignetti is a master motivator, and his team is consistently one of the most undervalued bets in the entire sport. Still!
The Hoosiers have covered the spread in eight consecutive games and have covered by more than a touchdown in seven of their eight contests.
Cignetti knows that style points matter, and more importantly, he knows that this Michigan team is nothing like last year’s national title squad.
The Hoosiers have the perfect passing attack to exploit the vulnerable Michigan secondary and a coach who will not hesitate to run up the score to prove a point. Take the alt line to boost up our odds.
