Indiana vs. Nebraska Odds
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 61.5 -110o / -110u | +165 |
| Nebraska Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 61.5 -110o / -110u | -200 |
Nebraska hosts Indiana in a cross-division Big Ten matchup Saturday. Both of these teams enter this game coming off of a loss, but it was Indiana's first of the year compared to Nebraska's third.
Indiana enters this game with a 3-1 record, coming off of a loss to Cincinnati. The Hoosiers are just 1-3 against the spread and have gone over the total in three games this season.
Nebraska comes into this game with a 1-3 record and an interim head coach. It's 0-4 against the spread and has gone over in just two games.
There's no rain in the forecasts, and temperatures will be in the 70s at the time of kickoff. But the wind may have a slight impact on the scoring in this game, with breezes ranging from 9.5 to 11.4 miles per hour throughout the game.
Which team will bounce back from its loss? Let's dive in.
Indiana Hoosiers
After struggling on both sides of the ball in 2021, head coach Tom Allen has Indiana playing fast through four games. They average a blazing 18.2 seconds per play, which has helped them rank second with 84.3 offensive plays per game.
Indiana owns a 38.8% Success Rate to go along with an average of 28.8 points per game and 4.8 yards per play.
After transferring from Missouri following two seasons as its starting quarterback, Connor Bazelak has taken over the starting role in Bloomington. He's completed 53.5% of his passes for an average of 5.8 yards per attempt. Bazelak has thrown for 1,171 yards and seven touchdowns — but he has also thrown four interceptions.
Indiana's offense has leaned heavily on the pass with the Mizzou transfer under center, averaging 50.5 passes per game
Two running backs have racked up over 100 rushing yards for the Hoosiers, led by Shaun Shivers and his 320 yards. As a team, they're averaging 33.8 runs per game and 3.4 yards per rush.
Indiana owns a 38% Rushing Success Rate and averages four runs of 10 yards or more per game. The offensive line has created 2.92 Line Yards per attempt and has allowed a 15.4% Stuff Rate.
The Hoosiers given up allowed 29.2 points per game and 5.6 yards per attempt. They've allowed a Success Rate of 40% and 3.5 points per opportunity. The defense also generates Havoc on 15% of plays.
Opposing offenses have found greater success passing against this defense, as it has allowed a 48% Passing Success Rate to go along with 279.8 passing yards per game.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Mickey Joseph wasn't done any favors in his first game as interim head coach. Oklahoma welcomed Joseph to the head coaching ranks with a 49-14 bludgeoning in Lincoln.
Through four games, the Cornhuskers are averaging 30.5 points per game and 6.2 yards per play. They own a 51% Success Rate and have averaged 23 seconds per play.
Texas transfer Casey Thompson has taken over at quarterback and is completing 65% of his passes for an average of 8.5 yards per attempt. He's thrown five touchdowns but has made some mistakes with three interceptions.
As a team, Nebraska has a 46% Passing Success Rate, and it's averaged four passes of 20 or more yards per game.
Nebraska's offense still prefers the run game, however. It boasts a 54% rush rate and has averaged 41 rush attempts per game.
Anthony Grant leads the way with 464 rushing yards and five scores. With Grant in tow, Nebraska has recorded a Rushing Success Rate of 53%. The offensive line has also created 3.87 Line Yards per attempt while allowing a Stuff Rate of 5.8%.
Offense hasn't been the issue for Nebraska. It's a struggling defense that has it reeling. The Huskers have allowed 35.5 points per game and 6.3 yards per play.
Their 50% Success Rate Allowed ranks 123rd, and opponents have scored an average of 4.41 points per opportunity. One key area of concern has been that they've created Havoc on just 13% of plays.
Indiana vs. Nebraska Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Indiana and Nebraska match up statistically:
Indiana Offense vs. Nebraska Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 95 | 116 | |
| Line Yards | 96 | 86 | |
| Pass Success | 59 | 122 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 120 | 29 | |
| Havoc | 72 | 117 | |
| Finishing Drives | 114 | 102 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Nebraska Offense vs. Indiana Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 13 | 30 | |
| Line Yards | 4 | 48 | |
| Pass Success | 38 | 109 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 99 | 122 | |
| Havoc | 66 | 84 | |
| Finishing Drives | 43 | 53 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 107 | 59 |
| PFF Coverage | 120 | 95 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 30 | 121 |
| Seconds per Play | 18.2 (1) | 23.0 (16) |
| Rush Rate | 40.1% (126) | 56.2% (49) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Indiana vs. Nebraska Betting Pick
Even though they have just a 1-3 record, the Cornhuskers are nearly a touchdown favorite in this matchup, and bettors have largely backed them to cover. Despite 53% of tickets sitting on Indiana, Nebraska has landed 76% of the money.
At initial glance, I prefer Nebraska's side. But with so many questions surrounding both teams, picking a side isn't the best approach.
Both defenses are a concern in this game, and the offenses are high-powered. That's why the best play comes on the over. Even with the windy conditions, there's no reason to expect either offense to struggle to move the ball down the field.
