Penn State vs Indiana Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+31 -108 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +2200 |
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-31 -112 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -8000 |
We've got a big one this Saturday in college football. Here's everything you need to know about Penn State vs Indiana: the odds, picks and prediction for our betting preview as the Nittany Lions take on the Hoosiers.
Let's get to the Penn State vs Indiana picks and prediction.
There’s the hot seat.
And then there's the hot seat.
James Franklin finds himself on the former, while Tom Allen sits on the latter.
Some Penn State fans may clamor for the firing of Franklin after the Nittany Lions head coach dropped to 3-16 against top-10 teams while at Penn State. But Penn State won't can the 10-year Nittany Lions coach after leading the program to four New Year’s Six bowl games over the last seven seasons.
Tom Allen’s firing is much closer to reality, as the Hoosiers dropped their 11th conference game in 12 tries last week in a 31-14 defeat against Rutgers in Bloomington.
Indiana (2-5) needed quadruple overtime for its lone win over Power Five competition this season (Akron), as the Hoosiers have dropped three straight, with maybe only one winnable game remaining on their schedule (Michigan State).
Does Indiana have something up its sleeve for Penn State (6-1), a la 2020 Michael Penix Jr.? Or will Franklin and the Nittany Lions get back on track, covering the spread for the seventh time in eight games?
Penn State vs Indiana Betting Preview, Prediction
Indiana Hoosiers
Last week, Indiana knew jumping out to an early lead was imperative against a Rutgers team with virtually no passing offense. However, the Hoosiers did just that and still found a way to let the Scarlet Knights score 31 of the game’s final 38 points.
It’s been that type of year for Indiana, which has struggled to slow teams down while not scoring enough to keep pace.
Against Rutgers, Indiana went with quarterback Brendan Sorsby for the full 60 after splitting duties with Tayven Jackson in the prior two games. The decision did not bear fruit, as Sorsby and the Hoosiers recorded their second-fewest passing yards this season (126), completing less than 50% of passes for the fourth time this year.
Albeit against one of the worst run defenses in the country, Indiana’s ground attack finally turned it around last week, gaining 153 yards, the highest single-game mark against any FBS team this year. But even with the performance, the Hoosiers are still only 123rd in Rush Success Rate.
Indiana’s anemic offense is a deadly blow paired with a defense outside the top 100 nationally in Pass and Rush Success Rate Allowed.
Rutgers was the first FBS team Indiana held below 380 yards of offense this year.
Although Penn State's offense has limitations, the Nittany Lions have still racked up over 420 yards per game against teams not named Ohio State.
Penn State Nittany Lions
A single week can do a lot to turn the tide. Discussions of the College Football Playoff quickly pivoted to anger and outrage in University Park following Penn State’s seventh straight loss to Ohio State.
The stagnant offense remains the thorn in Penn State’s side. The Nittany Lions entered Columbus with just one 40-yard-or-more pass play this season and generated zero against Ohio State.
While Drew Allar has yet to throw an interception, no Power Five program has fewer passing plays of 20-plus yards than Penn State, as a lack of explosive plays continue to handicap the offense.
The Ohio State game notwithstanding, Penn State's ground game has been effective behind the Nicholas Singleton-Kaytron Allen duo. Both backs have rushed for over 400 yards and average north of 4.0 yards per carry.
Unfortunately for Hoosiers fans, no Big Ten team has a worse run defense than Indiana.
Despite the loss, Penn State’s defense still proved itself as one of the best in the country. The Nittany Lions remain in the top 10 nationally in Pass and Rush Success Allowed, ranking second in scoring with just 9.7 points allowed per game.
That’s a long way of saying Indiana’s offense is in for a long day.
Indiana vs Penn State
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Indiana and Penn State match up statistically:
Indiana Offense vs. Penn State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 123 | 7 | |
| Line Yards | 48 | 3 | |
| Pass Success | 74 | 1 | |
| Havoc | 66 | 4 | |
| Finishing Drives | 128 | 4 | |
| Quality Drives | 78 | 2 | |
Penn State Offense vs. Indiana Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 19 | 122 | |
| Line Yards | 28 | 111 | |
| Pass Success | 55 | 112 | |
| Havoc | 3 | 67 | |
| Finishing Drives | 1 | 96 | |
| Quality Drives | 23 | 103 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 38 | 84 |
| PFF Coverage | 92 | 7 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 58 | 62 |
| Middle 8 | 133 | 20 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.7 (84) | 26.3 (58) |
| Rush Rate | 51.8% (81) | 55.4% (33) |
Indiana vs Penn State
Betting Pick & Prediction
Penn State fans, take a deep breath. While the Nittany Lions aren’t the cream of the crop, they’re still miles ahead of Indiana.
Indiana’s offense was in way over its head against Michigan and Ohio State, averaging five points and fewer than 200 yards per game.
Penn State may not have an offense on pace with the Wolverines and Buckeyes, but its defense is on par. The Hoosiers are likely in for their third game of scoring single-digit points.
Mix in the fact that Franklin keeps his foot on the gas against these inferior opponents and doesn’t mind running up the score, and I like the Nittany Lions to cover this by at least five touchdowns in Beaver Stadium.
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