Indiana opens Big Ten play by traveling to the Rose Bowl to take on UCLA.
Curt Cignetti has been tasked with turning around the Indiana program after it spent a number of years toward the bottom of the Big Ten. He did so at James Madison and has a team that's set up really well to get to a bowl game in his first season.
Cignetti also made some interesting comments and went viral at Big Ten media days in regards to Indiana's first Big Ten matchup with UCLA.
Absolutely no shortage of confidence for #iufb Coach Curt Cignetti.
“We’re going to an old stadium to kick someone’s a**.”
Cignetti on playing at the Rose Bowl Stadium Week 3 against UCLA. pic.twitter.com/23HuWPjucd
— Joe Cronin (@Joe_cronin03) July 25, 2024
Meanwhile, UCLA escaped Week 1 with a 16-13 win over Hawaii to get its first win of the DeShaun Foster era. With new coordinators on both sides of the ball, there is going to be a period where UCLA is figuring out it's true identity.
This is also their first game in the Big Ten and its against a coach who called them out at media days, so I would expect a very fired-up UCLA team on Saturday night at the Rose Bowl.
My Indiana vs. UCLA pick is below.
Indiana vs UCLA Pick
I'm backing the Hoosiers to get it done on the road.
- Indiana-UCLA Best Bet: Indiana -3
Indiana vs UCLA Odds, Line & Spread
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -108 | 46 -110o / -110u | -185 |
| UCLA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -112 | 46 -110o / -110u | +154 |
- UCLA vs. Indiana Spread: UCLA +4 · Indiana -4
- UCLA vs. Indiana Total: 46 Over/Under
- UCLA vs. Indiana Moneyline: UCLA ML +154 · Indiana ML -185
Start Time & How to Watch Indiana vs UCLA
| Location: | Rose Bowl, Pasadena, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 14 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | NBC |
Indiana Football vs UCLA Football Preview
Indiana Hoosiers Betting Preview: Hoosiers Off to Strong Start
Cignetti did a masterful job at James Madison in its transition from FCS to FBS and now has a good set up at Indiana because of who he picked up in the transfer portal.
It starts at quarterback as two-time first-team All-MAC quarterback Kurtis Rourke transferred in from Ohio. He had a bit of down year in 2023, but in 2022 he averaged 9.3 yards per attempt with a 90.8 PFF passing grade. He didn't have very many weapons around him at Ohio in 2023, but he has them now at Indiana.
Cignetti brought Elijah Sarratt with him from James Madison. Sarratt had the fifth-best PFF receiving grade in college football in 2023 and averaged 2.92 yards per route run, which was top 15 in the nation.
Indiana is going with a running back by committee approach early in the season. The Hoosiers have been very successful on the ground and are averaging well over six yards per carry.
They have a lot of experience coming back on the offensive line as two James Madison transfers came in. Last season, Indiana was sixth in stuff rate allowed and 37th in offensive line yards, so it should be able to control the line of scrimmage in this game.
Indiana's defense is going to bring pressure all afternoon. Cignetti's defense at James Madison was top 10 in the nation in havoc in 2023 and that hasn't changed through two games at Indiana.
He basically brought over his entire defense from James Madison, a defense that was good at applying pressure and stopping the run. The Dukes were number one in the country in both defensive line yards and stuff rate, so they really should be able to stop UCLA's rushing attack and put a lot of pressure on Ethan Garbers.
UCLA Bruins Betting Preview: Offense Needs to Improve
With Foster serving as head coach and Eric Bieniemy calling the plays, UCLA is likely going to feature a rush-heavy attack.
T.J. Harden returns after averaging 5.3 yards per carry and scoring eight touchdowns in 2023. While he was solid, he had a PFF rushing grade of just 76.3 and isn't much of a bruiser, averaging only 2.5 yards per carry after contact.
The offensive line really struggled opening up holes for Harden against Hawaii as half of UCLA's runs were stuffed at the line. The Bruins brought back over 100 starts from last season, but it was a very average run-blocking unit that ranked 69th in EPA.
Garbers wasn't very good in the opener against Hawaii. He completed only 50% of his passes, had three turnover-worthy plays and had a 46.6 PFF passing grade.
Garbers better be ready to deal with the pressure Indiana is going to bring. He was pretty average against pressure last season and the UCLA offensive line didn't do a good job protecting him as he was under pressure on 36% of his dropbacks.
He's also very limited as a downfield passer. In 2023, he only completed seven passes of 20 yards or more and had a PFF passing grade of 68.4 on those passes.
D’Anton Lynn has moved on to USC after completely turning around UCLA's defense. He did that by blitzing at one of the highest rates in the nation and now that defensive line coach Ikaika Malloe has been promoted to defensive coordinator, that is most likely going to continue.
However, UCLA returns only five starters and 40% of its pressures from last season, which limits it in terms of how much pressure it can actually get on the quarterback.
Against Hawaii, the Bruins had six sacks but generated just a 27.5% pressure rate, a drop-off from last season. Rourke has been very good versus the blitz in his career, so there may be some big plays given up by UCLA.
How to Bet Indiana vs UCLA
Everything points to Indiana in this game. We saw against Hawaii that when UCLA isn't able to run the ball effectively, Garbers isn't the type of quarterback who can throw over the top of a defense.
If Indiana can constantly stuff UCLA at the line of scrimmage, the Bruins aren't going to be able to move the ball.
Indiana's offense has looked great through the first couple of games, especially running the ball. Hawaii's not a competent rushing offense, so this is going to be a big test for the Bruins, who lost a lot on their defensive front.
If they are going to blitz Rourke at a high rate, it's not going to be successful because at Ohio in 2023, he averaged 8.3 yards per attempt with seven touchdowns and zero interceptions against the blitz.
Cignetti has run his mouth and undoubtedly fired up UCLA, but this is too good of a matchup for Indiana, so I like the value on the Hoosiers at -3.
Pick: Indiana -3 (via DraftKings)
UCLA-Indiana Betting Trends
- 86% of the bets are on Indiana to cover the spread.
Indiana-UCLA Football Weather Forecast
