Iowa Hawkeyes vs Nebraska Cornhuskers Odds
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 24.5 -115o / -105u | +125 |
| Nebraska Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 24.5 -115o / -105u | -150 |
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Iowa battles Nebraska in one of the best and most heated rivalries in the Big Ten on Friday in Lincoln.
The Hawkeyes clinched the Big Ten West with a 15-13 win over Illinois after another outstanding defensive performance.
Iowa has battled offensive injuries, which have created some of the lowest totals in college football history. This week is no exception, as the total sits at 26.5 — the lowest over/under of all time.
Nebraska needs this game.
The Cornhuskers failed to beat Wisconsin last week and now need a win to reach bowl eligibility. The Cornhuskers won this game, 24-17, in Iowa City last season, which ended the Hawkeyes' seven-game winning streak in this rivalry, so they will be looking to start their own streak on Friday.
Let's take a look at the Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers odds and find a prediction for Friday's college football rivalry game.
Iowa Hawkeyes
The Iowa offense has been historically bad this season, and there aren't many data points suggesting any improvement soon.
There are a couple of problems with the Iowa offense beyond Brian Ferentz being a terrible play-caller.
First, Deacon Hill has been a huge downgrade at quarterback since Cade McNamara suffered a season-ending injury. This season, Hill has a 49.7% completion percentage and a 53.4% On-Target Rate, per Sports Info Solutions, ranking him in the bottom 10 among quarterbacks with more than 100 pass attempts.
Secondly, both Luke Lachey and Erick All are out for the season, which is a massive blow for a team that utilizes its tight ends more than any other team in the country.
Even though they've been bad, it's not like the Hawkeyes are hopeless running the football. Leshon Williams has big-play ability and is averaging 4.8 yards per carry on the season.
Iowa has one of the best defenses in the country because of its strong secondary.
The Hawkeyes are graded as the second-best coverage unit in the country, per PFF, and are allowing only 4.8 yards per attempt, which also ranks second in the nation. They did lose their best cover man in Cooper DeJean for the season but still held John Paddock to just 4.6 yards per attempt on Saturday.
Iowa is also incredibly difficult to run against. Opponents may get two or three yards at a time, but Iowa leads the nation in Rushing Explosiveness Allowed. Nebraska's offense relies heavily on the run, so Iowa will have to be stout up front for all 60 minutes.
Iowa is also one of the best teams in the country defending a short field. The Hawkeyes are allowing only 2.5 points per scoring opportunity, which is a top-10 mark in the nation.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
The Nebraska offense is intriguing because it has moved the ball but struggled to score.
Nebraska boasts one of the heaviest rushing attacks in the country, running the ball on 65.9% of offensive plays. The Cornhuskers actually have a pretty successful rushing attack, too, as they sit among the top 25 in both Offensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate Allowed.
So, this game is truly going to be decided in the trenches.
However, Nebraska does not have a consistent passing attack, and its starting quarterback in this matchup is uncertain.
Heinrich Haarberg missed the game against Wisconsin with an injury, so Chubba Purdy made his first collegiate start. Purdy completed 15-of-24 passes for 169 yards and broke off a 55-yard touchdown run.
Chubba is gone. 🏃♂️💨@chubbapurdy x @HuskerFootball
📺: NBC pic.twitter.com/O6zutu31h3
— Big Ten Football (@B1Gfootball) November 19, 2023
Both Jeff Sims and Haarberg were full participants in practice this week, so any of the three could play on Saturday.
However, does the starting quarterback even matter against this stout Iowa defense? Both Sims and Haarberg have been pretty mediocre with a negative EPA while struggling with turnovers this season, which is bad news against Iowa.
Nebraska's defense has limited big plays, as it ranks 14th in Explosiveness Allowed and 30th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed because of its outstanding tackling.
Still, the Cornhuskers are outside the top 100 in both Defensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate Allowed, so Iowa could methodically move the ball by running for three to four yards per carry.
Iowa vs Nebraska
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Iowa and Nebraska match up statistically:
Iowa Offense vs. Nebraska Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 131 | 30 | |
| Line Yards | 133 | 107 | |
| Pass Success | 120 | 39 | |
| Havoc | 117 | 78 | |
| Finishing Drives | 126 | 22 | |
| Quality Drives | 124 | 31 | |
Nebraska Offense vs. Iowa Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 59 | 21 | |
| Line Yards | 25 | 23 |  |
| Pass Success | 125 | 8 | |
| Havoc | 112 | 105 | |
| Finishing Drives | 104 | 4 | |
| Quality Drives | 96 | 4 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 3 | 11 |
| PFF Coverage | 2 | 36 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 10 | 108 |
| Middle 8 | 61 | 61 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.2 (106) | 30.2 (121) |
| Rush Rate | 59.5% (23) | 65.9% (7) |
Iowa vs Nebraska
Betting Pick & Prediction
Other teams might overlook this matchup with the Big Ten Championship game looming, but Iowa is not one of those programs. This is a rivalry game — Nebraska beat Iowa last season, and the Hawkeyes want revenge.
Because Iowa should shut down the Nebraska rushing attack and force the Huskers into obvious passing situations, it may be tough for Nebraska to score over 10 points in this game.
There isn't much hope for Iowa to consistently move the ball unless the ground game gets going, which at times, has been successful.
Consequently, this game will likely come down to special teams, where Iowa has a big advantage. Tory Taylor has downed the most punts in college football inside the 20 yard line, and Drew Stevens hasn't missed a field goal inside 40 yards, which has Iowa's special teams rated 10th by SP+ compared to Nebraska at 108th.
This is an inflated line because Nebraska needs a win for bowl eligibility, and I don't think this price is warranted, so I like the value on Iowa at +2.5 or better.
