The Big Ten will shift into fifth gear when the Iowa Hawkeyes (3-1, 1-0 Big Ten) make their way to Ohio Stadium to take on the Ohio State Buckeyes (4-0, 1-0) on Saturday, Oct. 5 at 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.
Ohio State currently sits at 123rd in strength of schedule, lacking quality nonconference opponents. Head coach Ryan Day traveled to East Lansing in Week 5, beating Michigan State soundly thanks to three turnovers from the Spartans.
The Buckeyes are in a similar position to Ole Miss in Week 5, lacking a quality opponent while drawing one of the best defenses in FBS.
Ohio State hopes to avoid the same result as the Rebels, as the Buckeyes are near three-touchdown favorites against the Hawkeyes.
The offense has been the big story with Iowa so far, scoring at least 31 points in three of its four games. The Hawkeyes ended a miserable 2023 campaign at 15.4 points per game but were strengthened by another tremendous Iowa defense that gave up only 14.8 points per game.
With a new offensive coordinator coming to Iowa City, the Hawkeyes have thrived on the ground in terms of Success Rate and explosives.
Iowa will look to recreate the magic of 2017 when it dropped a piano on the sixth-ranked Buckeyes, 55-24.
While Iowa has always had the defense and special teams for an upset, a new offense could create the biggest upset of the young Big Ten season.
Let's dive into my Iowa vs. Ohio State predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 5.
Iowa vs Ohio State Prediction
- Iowa vs. Ohio State Pick: Over 45
My Ohio State vs. Iowa best bet is on the over, with the best line currently available at ESPN Bet, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Iowa vs Ohio State Odds
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+19.5 -110 | 45 -110 / -110 | +850 |
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-19.5 -110 | 45 -110 / -110 | -1400 |
- Iowa vs Ohio State Point Spread: Ohio State -19.5
- Iowa vs Ohio State Over/Under: 45 Points
- Iowa vs Ohio State Moneyline: Iowa +850 · Ohio State -1400
Iowa vs Ohio State Preview
Iowa Hawkeyes Betting Preview: An Improved Ground Game
New Iowa offensive coordinator Tim Lester has an extensive background in the footprint of the Big Ten.
Before a year as a Green Bay Packers analyst, Lester was hired as the head coach of Western Michigan in 2017. The Broncos were a top-four scoring offense in the MAC through 2021, as Lester's work as a quarterbacks coach for Purdue and Syracuse translated to points and victories.
Fast forward to 2024, and Iowa has utilized zone-read rush concepts on more than 95% of running plays. The stable of running backs includes Kamari Moulton and Jaziun Patterson, who both average 3.6 yards after contact.
The explosive bell-cow of this offense, however, is Kaleb Johnson. The Ohio native averages 8.4 yards per carry and has created 30 missed tackles on just 82 rushing attempts.
KALEB JOHNSON 40 YDS FOR TD 3 pic.twitter.com/s9c5Kthw7i
— Heavens! (@HeavensFX) September 22, 2024
After a season of offensive numbers that finished bottom-10 in FBS, Iowa sits inside the top 50 in explosives and Success Rate on the ground.
The offensive line grades out as mid-FBS in Line Yards and Stuff Rate, meaning the Hawkeyes' running backs are creating the offense on a consistent basis.
Quarterback Cade McNamara has had opportunities in passing downs, an area where the Hawkeyes continue to struggle. Iowa ranks 104th in Success Rate in those situations.
The former Michigan quarterback has a 3:2 ratio in terms of touchdown to interceptions and big-time throws to turnover-worthy plays.
Lester has not pushed the envelope on the passing game, as McNamara is on pace for his lowest average depth of target in his five-year career.
On the other side, defensive coordinator Phil Parker continues to stymie opposing offenses in his 13th season in Iowa City. The 4-2-5 has held plenty of aggressiveness back compared to last year, as the Hawkeyes have shown blitz on just 16% of defensive snaps.
After averaging a 25% blitz rate over the past two seasons, Parker could be holding those blitz packages back for the Buckeyes. The Hawkeyes remain a top-25 Havoc unit, generating a fumble, tackle for loss or pass breakup on 20% of defensive snaps.
Cornerback Jermari Harris has been a lockdown corner from the left side, already racking up two interceptions and five pass breakups.
Parker implements one of the heaviest zone coverage rates in the nation, opting for quarters and Cover 3 to prevent explosives plays.
Ohio State Buckeyes Betting Preview: Explosiveness on the Outside
Ohio State's focus coming into the season centered around a new play-caller, as Day tapped his former New Hampshire coach for the offensive coordinator position.
Chip Kelly has brought a balanced attack to Columbus, using zone read for run concepts while quarterback Will Howard looks to minimize turnovers in the passing game.
The Buckeyes have struggled to create explosives through the air, as Howard's average depth of target sank to 7.4 yards after the game against Michigan State.
The heavy lifting has been by the targets after the catch, with slot Emeka Egbuka averaging 11.4 yards after the catch.
However, the biggest contributor on the offense is freshman wideout Jeremiah Smith. The rising star has already contributed five touchdowns on an explosive 3.8 yards per route run.
TWO UNBELIEVEABLE ONE-HANDED CATCHES BY JEREMIAH SMITH 🤯
THEY CAN'T GUARD HIM 👀 pic.twitter.com/vGUUs6rn41
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) September 29, 2024
Jim Knowles continues to call plays as the defensive coordinator, as the 4-2-5 has maintained a blitz rate of 28% year over year.
However, the Buckeyes defense has yet to face an offense that falls inside the top 90 of all FBS offenses, per SP+.
If there's a concern in the numbers up to this point, Ohio State sits outside the top 40 in Defensive Line Yards, Stuff Rate and tackle grading.
Even though the Buckeyes allow an average of 10 missed tackles a game, Ohio State has dismantled the schedule from a Defensive Success Rate perspective. In 50 opponent drives, only 10 crossed Ohio State's 40-yard line. Those drives have gone on to average 0.6 points per trip.
Iowa vs Ohio State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Iowa and Ohio State match up statistically:
Iowa Offense vs. Ohio State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 36 | 15 | |
| Line Yards | 65 | 45 | |
| Pass Success | 57 | 8 | |
| Havoc | 29 | 14 | |
| Finishing Drives | 80 | 1 | |
| Quality Drives | 53 | 2 | |
Ohio State Offense vs. Iowa Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 18 | 44 | |
| Line Yards | 2 | 32 | |
| Pass Success | 10 | 38 | |
| Havoc | 7 | 25 | |
| Finishing Drives | 2 | 50 | |
| Quality Drives | 13 | 6 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 16 | 43 |
| PFF Coverage | 6 | 23 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 14 | 17 |
| Middle 8 | 60 | 30 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.4 (111) | 26.9 (62) |
| Rush Rate | 62% (21) | 51% (76) |
Iowa vs Ohio State Pick & Prediction
There are a number of handicaps to consider when it comes to Iowa vs. Ohio State in Columbus.
First, the Hawkeyes must be capable of shutting down the Buckeyes' potent rushing attack. Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson have produced 12 explosive runs, each averaging a minimum 3.5 yards after first contact.
The Buckeyes rank top-20 in run-block grading but will face an Iowa defensive front that's top-25 in run defense.
The Hawkeyes are the best defense in the nation in containing the big run, leading the nation with just four opponent attempts that have gone 10 yards or longer. Iowa State met the national average in Success Rate on rushing attempts but failed to record any gain of 12 yards or more.
Iowa's defense has had more trouble containing the explosive pass, but that's a variable Ohio State's offense has not flashed with Howard at quarterback.
While Harris has played corner at an elite level, starting right cornerback TJ Hall has been a liability on the outside. The junior has allowed eight catches with an average of 24.4 yards to go along with three touchdowns. Hall will continue to work the right side of the field, directly opposing Smith's explosiveness.
The biggest question is the legitimacy of Ohio State's rush defense numbers against one of the softest schedules in the nation.
The Buckeyes rank top-15 in Success Rate team against the rush but have lost battles against opposing offensive lines. A decline in Stuff Rate and Line Yards numbers makes for an ominous sign against Iowa.
Containing a dangerous Hawkeyes rushing attack might not be an option for the Buckeyes' unproven defense. Johnson ranks as the fifth-most elusive back in FBS, a measurement of yards after contact and missed tackles.
Both offenses have advantages in moving the chains and creating scoring opportunities.
Smith will be paired up against the lowest-graded defensive back in the Iowa secondary, while an Ohio State defense that averages 10 missed tackles a game will draw one of the most elusive running backs in the nation.
Action Network projects Ohio State as a -19.5 favorite, giving no value to a side in the current market.
However, Iowa's renewed commitment to scoring points — along with key advantages on both sides of the ball — calls for the total to fly over the key number of 45.
Pick: Over 45
How to Watch Iowa vs Ohio State Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 5 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | CBS |
Iowa vs Ohio State Betting Trends
- Iowa has landed 63% of the bets and 77% of the money.
- The over has taken 71% of the tickets and generated 97% of the cash.
Iowa vs Ohio State Weather
