Tennessee vs Iowa Odds
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-5.5 -115 | 36.5 -110o / -110u | -225 |
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+5.5 -105 | 36.5 -110o / -110u | +185 |
New Year's Day gives us another Big Ten vs. SEC matchup in the Citrus Bowl, as the Iowa Hawkeyes square off against the Tennessee Volunteers.
The Hawkeyes come into this game at 10-3 following a blowout loss to Michigan in the Big Ten Championship game.
Meanwhile, the Volunteers had a disappointing 8-4 season after having playoff aspirations following their performance a season ago.
Like many of the bowls, there are a handful of opt-outs and transfer portal players. Let’s take a look into those situations and see who holds the edge in this one.
Tennessee Volunteers
Josh Heupel and the Volunteers experienced a somewhat disappointing season at 8-4 after an 11-2 last season. Heupel will look to regain his footing in this one and take down the Hawkeyes, but the opt-outs his team has make this a more daunting task.
The Tennessee offense has been led by the passing attack of Joe Milton and the ground game headlined by Jaylen Wright and Jabari Small. However, all three of those players have opted out of this one, so Tennessee will turn to backup quarterback Nico Iamaleava, a five-star freshman from California.
This will be a tall task for the freshman against one of the nation’s premier defenses. I think Iamaleava will struggle early in this one as he tries to figure out this defense, but I trust Heupel to put him in a good position to build his confidence with some easy throws early.
Meanwhile, Dylan Sampson will handle the ground carries for Tennessee after posting 471 yards and seven touchdowns on 86 carries.
This Tennessee offense ranked 31st in Success Rate on the season, but that mark is surely inflated now as they enter this one with a few backups. I figure the Vols will struggle in this one, but they could find some success in the second half as Iamaleava starts to settle in.
On the other side, the Volunteers defense will be down four starters by way of the transfer portal. They will be without a starting defensive end and three members of their secondary. That could be a boost for an Iowa offense that struggled to get things going through the air all season.
The Vols will need to get pressure early and often to help protect these backups in their secondary, which they have the talent to do. Tennessee should be able to handle Iowa’s run game, as it ranked 17th against the run on the year and retains its linebacking corps as well as most of the guys up front.
Iowa Hawkeyes
Kirk Ferentz and his squad enter this one looking to rebound following a bad loss in the Big Ten title game. Ferentz normally does a good job of getting his team motivated for bowl games, boasting 10 bowl wins in his career at Iowa.
Deacon Hill has had some run at quarterback this year, which will serve as valuable in this bowl game. Hill, however, has not changed the public’s view of the Hawkeyes offense. He completed less than 50% of his passes, and Iowa did not look any better with him under center after Cade McNamara was lost for the season.
He didn't do a particularly good job of taking care of the football with a 5:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Iowa’s offense ranked 133rd in Success Rate and 133rd in explosiveness — both dead last in the country — and the run game was equally as bad as the passing game.
The key stat for Iowa is that its offense ranks 18th in average field position. It will need to capitalize on short fields in this one if it wants to hang around.
Defensively, the Hawkeyes can play with any of the top units in the country. However, this defense has not been the same without superstar Cooper DeJean, who was lost to injury in Week 11.
While it's not quite the same, this defense is still top-notch.
The Hawkeyes rank seventh against the pass and 12th against the run. They should be able to slow down the Volunteer attack like they've done to nearly every opponent they've faced this season.
The interesting matchup will be how they defend the deep ball, as Tennessee likes to spread out its offense and throw downfield.
If Iowa can force a few turnovers and limit the big plays on deep throws, I think it can find some short fields and maybe even some quick scores.
Tennessee vs Iowa
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Tennessee and Iowa match up statistically:
Iowa Offense vs Tennessee Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 131 | 17 | |
| Line Yards | 132 | 15 | |
| Pass Success | 122 | 59 | |
| Havoc | 117 | 15 | |
| Finishing Drives | 126 | 34 | |
| Quality Drives | 125 | 46 | |
Tennessee Offense vs Iowa Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 38 | 12 | |
| Line Yards | 23 | 24 |  |
| Pass Success | 30 | 9 | |
| Havoc | 9 | 105 | |
| Finishing Drives | 94 | 5 | |
| Quality Drives | 69 | 3 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 4 | 45 |
| PFF Coverage | 4 | 44 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 33 | 55 |
| Middle 8 | 73 | 20 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.8 (99) | 21.3 (2) |
| Rush Rate | 59.4% (31) | 52.7% (65) |
Tennessee vs Iowa
Pick, Prediction
With the backup quarterbacks in, this figures to be a defensive slugfest between two offenses looking to figure it out with someone who isn't usually the starter under center.
While Iowa will look less explosive, I trust its defense to make plays more than Tennessee’s freshman quarterback in this one.
Give me the Hawkeyes to start 2024 with a cover in the Citrus Bowl.
Pick: Iowa +5.5
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