Iowa Hawkeyes vs Wisconsin Badgers Odds
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | ML |
+9.5 -115 | 34.5 -110o / -110u | +270 |
| Wisconsin Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | ML |
-9.5 -105 | 34.5 -110o / -110u | -350 |
Iowa and Wisconsin meet in Madison in what could decide the Big Ten West.
Iowa beat Purdue last week, but it's clear — yet again — that the Hawkeyes have one of the worst offenses in college football.
The downgrade from Cade McNamara to Deacon Hill is so substantial that I have doubts as to whether Iowa is going to score an offensive touchdown in this game.
The flip side, however, is that Iowa once again has one of the nation's best defenses, which will have to be at its best if the Hawkeyes are to win this game.
Iowa Hawkeyes
Hill might be the worst quarterback at the FBS level. In his first college start, he went 6-for-21 for 110 yards last week against Purdue and was consistently missing receivers by 10+ yards. All six of his completed passes were to tight ends or running backs, not one to a wide receiver.
In 56 pass attempts this season, per Sports Info Solutions, Hill has a 37.5% completion percentage and a 45.1% on-target percentage, ranking him last among quarterbacks with more than 50 pass attempts this season. To make matters worse, the forecast in Madison is calling for wind gusts around 18 mph at kickoff.
That means the pressure is going to be on Iowa's run game, which has been ineffective all season.
Against Purdue, Kaleb Johnson broke off a 67-yard run for a touchdown to begin the game and from that point on, Iowa only rushed for 114 yards on 34 carries (3.3 yards per carry).
Iowa's other big problem is its struggling offensive line. The Hawkeyes are allowing the fourth-highest pressure rate in college football at 41.6%, which could be a reason why Hill is struggling so badly. They also rank 127th in Offensive Line Yards and 126th in terms of a PFF run-blocking grade.
The defense, however, has kept Iowa competitive this season. Outside of one game against Penn State, where the defense got completely gassed and was on the field for 90 plays, the Hawkeyes have held every other opponent under 17 points.
Iowa is allowing just 4.2 yards per play (seventh in FBS), rank 11th in EPA/Play and 16th in Finishing Drives Allowed. The key to Norm Parker's defense has always been bend but don't break. That has remained true this season, as Iowa is second in the nation in Explosiveness Allowed.
It's incredibly difficult to throw on Iowa's secondary. The Hawkeyes are allowing just 5.0 yards per attempt (second in the FBS), third in terms of a PFF Coverage grade and eighth in EPA/pass attempt. In fact, Iowa has more interceptions this season than touchdown passes allowed.
Wisconsin Badgers
Wisconsin's offense is starting to become really effective, changing systems from a ground-and-pound rushing attack to Phil Longo's high-tempo offense.
The Badgers used to run over 60% of the time, but now they're at basically a 50-50 split between the run and the pass, which has made them less predictable and has made their rushing attack incredibly effective.
The Badgers lost running back Chez Mellusi to a season-ending injury, but Braelon Allen is one of the best backs in the country. He's averaging 6.4 yards per carry and 4.37 yards per carry after contact.
Allen's performances have the Badgers sitting sixth in Rushing Success Rate, and the offensive line has done a good job blocking up front, ranking 13th in Offensive Line Yards.
With that effective rushing attack, Wisconsin is 16th in Finishing Drives, averaging 5.7 yards per play.
SMU transfer Tanner Mordecai has been a bit shaky in Longo's offense. He's averaging just 6.9 yards per attempt with a 74.3 PFF passing grade through three games.
It's only a five-game sample, but Mordecai has been pretty bad when put under pressure, but the offensive line has done a good job of keeping a clean pocket.
Given the expected windy conditions, Wisconsin could go with a heavy rushing attack and try to control the ball the same way Penn State did against Iowa.
The Badgers' defense has been pretty average through five games, allowing 4.8 yards per play while ranking 56th in Success Rate Allowed.
Wisconsin switched to a new defensive system under DC Mike Tressel, who was with Luke Fickell in Cincinnati.
While not exactly facing a murder's row of offenses over their last three games, the Badgers have shown improvement on defense, allowing 17 points or less to Georgia Southern, Purdue and Rutgers.
Iowa vs Wisconsin
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Iowa and Wisconsin match up statistically:
Iowa Offense vs Wisconsin Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 127 | 53 | |
| Line Yards | 127 | 68 | |
| Pass Success | 129 | 24 | |
| Havoc | 117 | 60 | |
| Finishing Drives | 119 | 12 | |
| Quality Drives | 130 | 15 | |
Wisconsin Offense vs Iowa Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 6 | 57 | |
| Line Yards | 13 | 67 | |
| Pass Success | 65 | 22 | |
| Havoc | 16 | 105 | |
| Finishing Drives | 16 | 16 |  |
| Quality Drives | 80 | 17 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 15 | 78 |
| PFF Coverage | 3 | 29 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 18 | 4 |
| Middle 8 | 91 | 71 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.4 (89) | 26.1 (54) |
| Rush Rate | 56.2% (39) | 54.9% (41) |
Iowa vs Wisconsin
Betting Prediction
I don't know how Iowa scores an offensive touchdown in this game. Hill is barely completing a third of his passes and is constantly under pressure because of how bad his offensive line has been. The wind is going to be whipping around, making it even harder for a quarterback who was already consistently missing receivers by wide margins.
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Three weeks ago, Penn State put together the perfect blueprint of how to beat the Hawkeyes — wear them down by controlling the clock. The Nittany Lions, who possessed the ball for 42 minutes in a cold State College mist, didn't gain a lot of yards or have a ton of explosive plays.
In fact, QB Drew Allar averaged only 4.5 yards per attempt and Penn State backs averaged 3.8 yards per carry. But, the Nittany Lions ran the ball 57 times against Iowa, keeping the Hawkeyes' defense on the field.
Wisconsin can do the exact same thing to Iowa with Allen and his offensive line.
This is the reason I like the value on Iowa's Team Total Under 11.5 points at +112 (FanDuel).
