The Iowa State Cyclones (10-2, 7-2 Big 12) and Arizona State Sun Devils (10-2, 7-2) meet in the Big 12 Championship on Saturday, Dec. 7 at 12 p.m. ET on ABC.
A 5-game winning streak to end the season boosted Arizona State from the last-place pick in the preseason to AT&T Stadium.
Head coach Kenny Dillingham's team got hot at the right time after winning 6 games by one possession or less this year.
Iowa State took a different route and entered November undefeated in the penthouse of the Big 12. Consecutive losses to Texas Tech (23-22) and Kansas (45-36) deflated the Cyclones before a 3-game sweep earned them a title game birth.
Iowa State opened as a -1 favorite, but early betting has since made Arizona State a 2-point favorite with the total at 49.5. So, where does the betting value lie in this Big 12 title game?
Let's dive into my Iowa State vs. Arizona State predictions and college football picks for the Big 12 Championship on Saturday, Dec. 7.
Iowa State vs Arizona State Expert Predictions and Picks
- Iowa State vs. Arizona State Pick: Iowa State +2 or better
My Arizona State vs. Iowa State best bet is on the Cyclones to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at Caesars, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Iowa State vs Arizona State Odds, Spread, Lines
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 50.5 -110 / -110 | -115 |
| Arizona State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 50.5 -110 / -110 | -105 |
- Iowa State vs Arizona State Spread: Iowa State -1 (-110) · Arizona State +1 (-110)
- Iowa State vs Arizona State Over/Under: 50.5 Points
- Iowa State vs Arizona State Moneyline: Iowa State -115 · Arizona State -105
Iowa State vs Arizona State: Need to Know
How Can Arizona State Win The Game: Fantastic Pass Defense
Strong safety Malik Verdon's return to practice is positive news for Iowa State, and he's expected to play in the Big 12 Championship. The senior missed Week 14 but now has the chance to add to a tally of six passes defended.
The 3-3-5 package from head coach Matt Campbell and defensive coordinator Jon Heacock has been fantastic in defending the pass, ranking 11th in coverage grading and 13th in creating contested catches.
The run game may also be on the rebound from a health perspective, with the return of middle linebacker Caleb Bacon. The third-year Cyclone proved to be a key piece of the defense in 2023 but has not played since Week 1 against North Dakota.
Verdon and Bacon would represent two of the best tacklers at the second level of the Iowa State defense.
Quarterback Rocco Becht saw a dip in explosive numbers in Iowa State's passing game. His turnover-worthy play rate has increased from 2.6% to 3.9% despite targets cutting the drop rate in half from last year.
Becht doesn't enter Arlington with the cleanest of forms over the last three games, generating seven turnover-worthy plays to just a single big-time throw.
Iowa State is elite at avoiding mistakes during offensive possessions with a Havoc Allowed rate in the top 25 and an offensive momentum killer rank of third.
Iowa State still maintained a top-35 rank in Rush and Pass EPA, as Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel have each eclipsed 2.6 yards per route run.
The rushing attack has fallen outside the top 100 in Success Rate and Line Yards, using a heavy amount of inside zone and power run concepts.
Carson Hansen has been limited to less than three yards after first contact, while Abu Sama III has as many explosives as 2023 but a severe drop in highlight yards.
How Arizona State Can Win The Game: Loss of Jordyn Tyson Could Prove Critical
Arizona State's plan on the offensive side of the ball is clear: use running back Cam Skattebo as much as possible. The senior has 248 carries with an average of 5.6 yards per tote while generating 3.9 yards after first contact.
While Skattebo has powered a top-10 Rushing Success Rate number, the trench sits 27th in Offensive Line Yards.
Quarterback Sam Leavitt won the quarterback battle in the offseason and has seen a boost to his passing numbers thanks to the threat of Skattebo.
Leavitt has seen a decrease in mistakes over his freshman season. The Michigan State transfer has protected the football in 246 dropbacks, committing just three turnovers the entire season.
The loss of leading receiver Jordyn Tyson will be critical on third downs. He was the only receiving option to have at least 10 targets on third down on the season.
When it comes to the run game, Dillingham prefers a heavy dose of outside zone, mixing in counter and power in short-yardage situations.
The Sun Devils have a top-25 rate of offensive execution in standard downs, but the offense sputters with an efficiency dip in passing downs.
On the other side of the ball, Arizona State's defense has faltered in creating chaos and tackling. Coordinator Brian Ward's 4-2-5 personnel sits just outside the top 80 in tackle grading and broken tackles allowed.
Third downs have also been troublesome for the Sun Devils, who have produced one of the worst pass rush units in FBS while maintaining a stop rank of 97th.
Iowa State vs Arizona State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Iowa State and Arizona State match up statistically:
Iowa State Offense vs. Arizona State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 103 | 43 | |
| Line Yards | 103 | 60 | |
| Pass Success | 71 | 58 | |
| Havoc | 23 | 84 | |
| Finishing Drives | 49 | 49 |  |
| Quality Drives | 14 | 52 | |
Arizona State Offense vs. Iowa State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 10 | 68 | |
| Line Yards | 27 | 61 | |
| Pass Success | 20 | 28 | |
| Havoc | 9 | 72 | |
| Finishing Drives | 53 | 12 | |
| Quality Drives | 10 | 10 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 120 | 82 |
| PFF Coverage | 11 | 45 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 70 | 131 |
| Middle 8 | 51 | 4 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.5 (77) | 28.5 (104) |
| Rush Rate | 53% (66) | 61% (12) |
How To Bet My Iowa State vs Arizona State Pick & Prediction
Although Arizona State profiles as a run-first team, Tyson's absence leaves Leavitt without many comfortable options. Skattebo and tight end Chamon Metayer become the next targets outside of the receiver room, leaving wideout Xavier Guillory and slot Melquan Stovall as the most targeted wide receivers.
Guillory and Stovall have combined for 12 total catches over the past five games.
Iowa State's 3-3-5 stack has long tormented opponent passing attacks, ranking 13th in contested catch rate.
The biggest question for Heacock and a light defensive front is the potential for loading the box against the run, as the Cyclones have gone to a four-man front just once this season.
The great news for Iowa State is Arizona State's run concept usage. The Sun Devils run heavy outside zone with Skattebo, and the Cyclones have been fantastic against the run concept, posting a 56% Success Rate in 114 snaps against outside zone.
The Iowa State run defense has improved over the previous two games against the zone-read offenses of Kansas State and Utah. Specifically, the Wildcats were held to a 26% Success Rate on 30 rushing attempts.
A few other advantages exist for Iowa State in terms of special teams and ball protection. Arizona State owns a +11 net turnover margin this season, powered by 14 interceptions.
The other good news for the Cyclones is ASU's usage of Cover 3, a scheme Becht has produced a modest 50% Success Rate and a large 19% big play rate against.
With a positive EPA and low negative play rate against Cover 3, expect Iowa State to convert third downs frequently.
Special teams are also a factor in this game, especially with Iowa State coming off 226 hidden yards against Kansas State. The Sun Devils rank 131st in SP+ Special Teams while sitting outside the top 100 in kick and punt return defense.
Iowa State boasts a top-20 punt return unit, with Noel entering the game with an average return of 15.2 yards per attempt.
Pick: Iowa State +2 or better
How To Watch Iowa State vs Arizona State Live
| Location: | AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, Dec. 7 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ABC |
Iowa State takes on Arizona State in the Big 12 Championship on Saturday, Dec. 7 at 12 p.m. ET on ABC.
Arizona State vs Iowa State Betting Trends
Arizona State vs Iowa State Weather
