Iowa State vs BYU Odds & Prediction: Saturday Big 12 Betting Guide

Let's head out to Provo, Utah, where the BYU Cougars will be looking to pull off a home upset over the Iowa State Cyclones on Saturday night.

It's been tough sledding in Provo this season, but Kalani Sitake's Cougars are one victory away from earning bowl eligibility.

As for the Cyclones, they lost a tough game at home to Kansas last weekend, so this may serve as a potential letdown spot. They also will be looking to punch their ticket to bowl season.

Let's waste no further time and dive into the Iowa State vs. BYU odds to see if we can uncover the right betting pick and prediction for this late-night Big 12 battle.

This might be Matt Campbell's best coaching job yet. The Cyclones lost quarterback Hunter Dekkers before the season, and it seemed like it would be a lost season from the very start.

If the Clones had beaten Kansas last weekend, they theoretically would have been in the driver's seat to earn a Big 12 Championship berth. Even with other injuries to important skill positions, Campbell has gotten the most out of this roster.

Still, it's not much of a surprise how ugly the offensive numbers look. The Cyclones are third-to-last in the nation in Rushing Success Rate and dead last in Line Yards.

Although the BYU defense isn't great, this is cause for concern in a potential letdown spot. The Clones also do a good job at preventing Havoc, but they're 100th in Finishing Drives.

Quarterback Rocco Becht has put up some decent numbers for Iowa State, but his performance last week cost his team the game. His seven interceptions this season are concerning, and I'm not sure I fully trust this offense to put touchdowns on the board.

Defensively, it's a completely different story. It's not a surprise this unit is the anchor of this squad, and it's been excellent in numerous categories.

The Cyclones rank top-40 in Quality and Finishing Drives and own an impressive rank of 16th in Defensive Line Yards. This defensive front got pushed around last week, but I won't put too much stock into that considering the Jayhawks offense is tough to scheme against.

This defense is excellent in PFF coverage grading, which will be key against a Cougars team that throws the ball 56% of the time.

The special teams are also elite, but the edge isn't as significant in this matchup considering BYU is strong in that area as well.

I've been fading this BYU team all season, especially with Kedon Slovis under center. However, it'll be the Jake Retzlaff show again on Saturday night with Slovis still questionable after missing last week.

Slovis has been abysmal this season, so it makes sense to name Retzlaff the starter again this week with Slovis banged up.

Retzlaff wasn't great by any stretch last week, as the Cougars got completely trucked by West Virginia, 37-7. He completed only 24 of his 42 passes for 210 yards.

I'm going to throw out the Cougars' offensive metrics for this matchup considering Slovis has been the signal-caller in every game this season besides last week.

It's no surprise that BYU doesn't utilize the ground game much, as it ranks 130th in Rushing Success Rate.

Oddly enough, the Cougars do a great job of Finishing Drives when they get past the 40-yard line, coming in at 46th nationally in that category. This would be a tough matchup regardless of who's playing quarterback, so it'll be interesting to see if Retzlaff can find some success.

Defensively, I think the Cougars will be able to contain this Cyclones offense. BYU ranks 37th in Defensive Finishing Drives, so I wouldn't expect many touchdowns from Iowa State even if it finds itself in scoring position.

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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Iowa State and BYU match up statistically:

Iowa State Offense vs. BYU Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	131	59
Line Yards	133	109
Pass Success	100	81
Havoc	50	116
Finishing Drives	100	37
Quality Drives	61	56

BYU Offense vs. Iowa State Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	130	43
Line Yards	118	16
Pass Success	119	57
Havoc	103	66
Finishing Drives	46	36
Quality Drives	125	30

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	72	110
PFF Coverage	16	114
Special Teams SP+	22	40
Middle 8	28	129
Seconds per Play	29.7 (116)	27.6 (79)
Rush Rate	50.8% (79)	44.3% (119)

This seems like it'll certainly be an ugly affair, so I'm going to play it safe and back the under here.

Some sharp money has come across on the over as of writing, so I wouldn't be surprised to see this number reach the key number of 42 on Saturday.

I'll be waiting to see if it gets there, but regardless, I would still take this at 41.5.

I see too many scenarios in which both of these teams stumble when they cross the opponent's 40 and they rely on their elite special team units to pin each other deep.

I have no faith in either of these offenses to put points on the scoreboard, and both units are slow in between plays.

I'd love to bet the Cougars catching points here, but it's possible the Cyclones defense completely shuts them down.

Let's hope the BYU defense does its part and gets this under home.

Pick: Under 41.5 (Play to 40.5)

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