Iowa State vs. Cincinnati Odds
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -115 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | +165 |
| Cincinnati Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -105 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | -200 |
The Cincinnati Bearcats haven't gotten off to the best start in their first season in the Big 12. They're 0-2 in conference play, but they come into this matchup as favorites off a bye.
Cincy will play host to the Iowa State Cyclones, who pulled their record to .500 with a victory against TCU last week. The Cyclones are an interesting team to watch, as their offense has been hit or miss but their defense has kept them in nearly every game.
However, they say that the one thing that travels with you on the road is your defense, so let's find out if the Cyclones can make this game a grind or if the Bearcats will come out rejuvenated.
Here's my Iowa State vs. Cincinnati betting pick.
Iowa State Cyclones
As I alluded to in the open, the Cyclones have struggled to find any consistency on the offensive side of the ball.
However, they will have an avenue for success through the air in this matchup.
Iowa State has kept the ball in the hands of quarterback Rocco Becht quite a bit this season, as it's thrown the ball at the 36th-highest rate in the country.
Becht has been decent at the helm of this passing attack. In particular, he's been great at getting the ball out quickly, which has led to the nation's lowest sack rate but also only an average of 6.8 yards per pass.
However, if that trend continues, he should be able to keep the chains moving quite often.
Cincinnati's secondary is 131st in PFF's Coverage grading, and that poor coverage has led to it also ranking 108th in Passing Success Rate Allowed.
Cincinnati Bearcats
The offense hasn't been the issue for the Bearcats this season. They're coming into this matchup off of three straight losses, but they're 60th in Rushing Success Rate and 39th in Passing Success Rate.
So, all in all, it's not too bad.
However, they could struggle in this matchup against the Cyclones. Iowa State's defense is its identity, and it's been solid in all aspects. The Clones will match up against the Bearcats' rushing attack up front, as both squads are close in Line Yards.
Iowa State will have to account for Emory Jones in the rushing attack, but the quarterback has yet to be explosive with his carries. If the Clones can contain him in the pocket, they'll be in good shape.
Additionally, Jones, who's been much improved as a passer this season, is in for his toughest task yet. The Cyclones' secondary has been tremendous, as it ranks 24th in PFF's Coverage rating.
Their excellent coverage has led to them ranking 22nd in opponent completion percentage allowed and 25th in yards per pass allowed.
Iowa State vs Cincinnati
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Iowa State and Cincinnati match up statistically:
Iowa State Offense vs. Cincinnati Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 130 | 23 | |
| Line Yards | 132 | 28 | |
| Pass Success | 115 | 108 | |
| Havoc | 50 | 13 | |
| Finishing Drives | 79 | 56 | |
| Quality Drives | 86 | 57 | |
Cincinnati Offense vs. Iowa State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 60 | 63 |  |
| Line Yards | 40 | 36 | |
| Pass Success | 39 | 52 | |
| Havoc | 39 | 66 | |
| Finishing Drives | 70 | 39 | |
| Quality Drives | 33 | 43 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 109 | 58 |
| PFF Coverage | 24 | 131 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 72 | 68 |
| Middle 8 | 65 | 61 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.9 (103) | 25.9 (51) |
| Rush Rate | 48.6% (89) | 57.6% (27) |
Iowa State vs Cincinnati
Betting Pick & Prediction
This spread has been stuck in the dead zone all week, as it sits between the key numbers of six and three.
However, our deep dive shows that this game should sway in favor of the Cyclones.
Their scuffling offense will have a path to success through the air in this matchup, and they should be able to contain Jones and the Bearcats' offense.
So, give me the points, as Iowa State will be a live dog.
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