The Cy-Hawk rivalry will be renewed on Saturday when Iowa State makes the short trip to Iowa City to take on Iowa at Kinnick Stadium. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. ET with the game set to be broadcast on CBS.
Here's my Iowa State vs. Iowa prediction and pick.
Iowa State vs. Iowa Prediction
- Pick: Iowa ML -140
My Iowa State vs Iowa best bet is on the Hawkeyes to win the game via ML, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Iowa State vs. Iowa Odds
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 +100 | 36.5 -110o / -110u | +120 |
| Iowa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -120 | 36.5 -110o / -110u | -140 |
- Spread: Iowa State +2.5 · Iowa -2.5
- Total: Over/Under 36.5
- Moneyline: Iowa State ML +120 · Iowa ML -140
Iowa State vs. Iowa Preview
Iowa State Cyclones Preview
Iowa State is returning everything on the offensive side of the ball from last year's squad.
While that is all well and good, they were far from a good offense in 2023. The Cyclones finished 123rd in Success Rate, although first overall in explosiveness. Relying on explosive plays is not sustainable, especially against their opponent on Saturday.
Rocco Becht was not a consistent quarterback last season and struggled in the Cy-Hawk game. He averaged 8.5 yards per attempt with a 78.4 Pro Football Focus passing grade, as all of his best games came toward the end of the season.
He's pretty effective at throwing the ball over 10 yards, which is wonderful, but that won't work against one of the best secondaries in the country — one that never allows explosive passing plays.
Last season against Iowa, Becht completed just 52% of his 44 passes for 4.6 yards per attempt, both of which were his worst performances of the season.
It is clear that if Iowa State is going to be successful on Saturday, it has to run the football. The Cyclones couldn't do that last year, averaging just 2.8 yards per carry in the rivalry game.
The Cyclones get 90 career starts back on the offensive line, but they were legitimately one of the worst run-blocking units in college football last year, finishing dead last in Offensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate Allowed. They likely won't control the line of scrimmage in this game.
Iowa State returns a lot on the defensive side of the ball, which ranked in the top 40 in Success Rate allowed in 2023. The Cyclones were incredibly stout against the run, finishing 27th in EPA per Rush allowed, and will have all but one starter back in the front seven.
They shut down the Iowa run game last year, but we'll see if they are able to do that again against a new-look Iowa offense.
Iowa Hawkeyes Preview
The first half against Illinois State last weekend looked like the same old Iowa.
The 'Hawks couldn't run the ball effectively, Cade McNamara was missing receivers, and Iowa punted the ball or turned it over on downs on five of their first seven possessions.
Everything changed in the second half.
New offensive coordinator Tim Lester opened up the offense to more of his RPO, and Iowa flourished — especially McNamara, who was nearly perfect in the second half.
Cade's second half 🔥
• 13-of-14
• 3 TD@Cademac_12 x #Hawkeyespic.twitter.com/cGjmYNiUeR— Hawkeye Football (@HawkeyeFootball) August 31, 2024
Here is the story with the Iowa offense: yes, Brian Ferentz was a terrible offensive coordinator and got all of the blame, but Iowa flat-out was terrible up front last year.
For the Hawkeyes to be successful offensively, they need to be able to run the football. They boasted one of the nation's worst offensive lines, which struggled in pass protection and the run game. They have 154 career starts and four seniors back on the line and had posted very high Pro Football Focus run-block and pass-block grades in Week 1.
Things should improve for the Hawkeyes up front, which will boost Lester's offense.
The Hawkeye defense will be excellent again, as is tradition. They return eight starters from last year's stop unit, which led college football in yards per play allowed (3.9). Phil Parker's defense has led the nation in yards per play allowed in three of the past four years.
Iowa blitzes at one of the nation's lowest rates, but the 4-2-5 defense gives opponents fits because the Hawkeyes are so fundamentally sound, never allowing chunk plays.
To run a conservative 4-2-5, you need to generate a pass-rush with just the front four, but you also need to be great in the back end.
Luckily for Iowa, the Hawkeyes have two of the Big Ten's best linebackers, Jay Higgens and Nick Jackson, who combined for 281 tackles last year.
Xavier Nwankpa, Quinn Schulte and Sebastian Castro return in the secondary. Iowa ranked second in Pro Football Focus' Coverage grades last season.
While they have to replace Cooper DeJean, Jermari Harris led Iowa in pass break-ups last year (eight).
The secondary tortured Becht last year, allowing only 203 passing yards while snatching a pick-six.
How to Bet Iowa State vs. Iowa Prediction
This is one of the rare games in college football where both teams return most of their starters from last season, which means we can use prior data.
The offensive matchup for Iowa State is a nightmare, as shown last season. The Cyclones are almost entirely reliant on explosive plays, which simply isn't going to work against Parker's bend-don't-break defense which ranked second nationally in Explosives allowed last year.
The Iowa State rushing offense was pretty poor against North Dakota in the opener, only averaging 3.9 yards per carry, which doesn't bode well stepping up against Iowa's run defense.
The Hawks shut them down on the ground last season and forced Becht to beat them through the air. If Becht has to attempt over 40 passes again, Iowa State will lose.
The other aspect of Iowa's defense is how well it defends inside its own 40-yard line. Iowa ranked third in Finishing Drives allowed in 2023 and held Iowa State in the CyHawk game to just 1.6 points per scoring opportunity.
The key for Iowa offensively starts up front. It's the best and most experienced offensive line Iowa has had in four years, and if the Hawkeyes play as they did against Illinois State, Iowa will be able to run the football effectively. This will allow Iowa to control the clock and open up Lester's offense.
Ferentz owns Campbell. The legendary Hawkeye coach is 11-4 against Iowa State since 2008, and Phil Parker's defense has held Matt Campbell's offense under 20 points in seven of the last eight meetings.
It's a Hawkeye state, and it always will be. I like the Hawks on the moneyline.
Pick: Iowa ML -140
How to Watch Iowa State vs Iowa
| Location: | Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, IA |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 7 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | CBS |
Iowa State-Iowa Betting Trends
- Iowa State is 0-1 ATS this year after beating North Dakota 21-3 as 30.5-point favorites in Week 1.
- Iowa is 1-0 ATS this year after beating Illinois State 40-0 as 21.5-point favorites in Week 1.
- Iowa has won four of its past five head-to-head meetings with Iowa State, covering the spread in three of those wins.
ISU-Iowa Weather
