Iowa State Cyclones vs Kansas State Wildcats Odds
| Iowa State Cyclones Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+10 -110 | 45.5 -115o / -105u | +290 |
| Kansas State Wildcats Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-10 -110 | 45.5 -115o / -105u | -375 |
It's time to take a look at the Iowa State Cyclones vs. Kansas State Wildcats odds and find a betting pick for Saturday's college football showdown in the Big 12.
Let's head out to Manhattan, Kansas, for a Big 12 season-finale clash between the Iowa State Cyclones and Kansas State Wildcats.
Both teams are coming off hard-fought games last weekend, so I'm curious to see how much they have left in the tank.
Iowa State head coach Matt Campbell has done a great job with this Cyclones team, which lost starting quarterback Hunter Dekkers before the season began.
Meanwhile, Kansas State head coach Chris Klieman has followed up a Big 12 Championship season with a respectable year, especially given all of the talent the Cats had lost from the previous year.
Iowa State Cyclones
In their season "Super Bowl" last weekend, the Cyclones kept it close with the Longhorns until the fourth quarter. The biggest problem was their inability to move the ball on the ground, as they finished the game with nine rushing yards.
Things won't get easier this week for the Cyclones, as they will face a stout defensive front against the Wildcats. This is one of the worst rush offenses in the entire country, ranking second to last nationally in Rush Success Rate and 11th worst in Offensive Line Yards.
Their offensive line can't get any push, and it's been one of their biggest issues. This front has been decent in minimizing the amount of Havoc allowed, but that still hasn't been good enough to establish a consistent offense each week.
Quarterback Rocco Becht was efficient through the air last week, totaling over 300 yards passing. He must replicate that performance if the Clones have any fighting chance to win this game.
It won't be easy for Becht, as this might be the best secondary he's faced all year.
I'm also trying to convince myself why the Cyclones care about this game, considering they have already punched a ticket into bowl season.
If they are going to win this game or cover the number, it will have to be from the defensive side of the ball. This 3-3-5 scheme has given opponents fits this season, as the Longhorns took a long time to put the game away last weekend.
The metrics are good for this defensive unit, ranking in the top 50 nationally in Defensive Line Yards, Rush Success Rate allowed and Pass Success Rate allowed.
It's been exceptionally good at preventing Finishing and Quality Drives; a lot of opponents have struggled to punch it in the end zone past the 40-yard line.
This will be their biggest test yet, as this Wildcats offense is one of the best in the nation in Finishing and Quality Drives. A strength-on-strength battle will ensue, ultimately determining who wins this game.
Kansas State Wildcats
Many would argue that the Wildcats aren't playing for anything, but I have to believe Klieman would love to take his team to a premier bowl game. If the Wildcats eclipse nine wins, there's an outside prayer that they enter the New Year's Six bowl conversation.
This is a fantastic matchup for the Wildcats, and luckily, their opponent is entering this matchup exhausted from last weekend.
The Wildcats managed to narrowly escape against the Jayhawks last weekend, but I would argue that the Cyclones played in a much more physical and exhausting game against the Longhorns.
Offensively, K-State will be challenged by this pretty stout Iowa State defense, but I like what I've seen from the Wildcat offense. The rotating quarterback threats of Will Howard and Avery Johnson have been an electric factory.
The offense ranks in the top 25 nationally in Pass Success Rate and Rush Success Rate, alongside an outstanding 13th in Havoc allowed. I expect Howard and Johnson to succeed through the air and ground all afternoon.
I briefly mentioned the Wildcats' success in Finishing Drives, a major difference-maker in this matchup. The Wildcats are fourth nationally in Finishing Drives, so they'll have no issues punching it in against a tough defense.
It won't take much offense for the Wildcats to win this game, especially with how well the defense has been playing. The Cyclones do not run the ball well and should struggle more against Kansas State's stout defensive front.
The Wildcats' advanced defensive metrics are elite, notably Havoc and Pass Success Rate allowed. The Clones rely solely on their aerial attack, and Becht will be under duress the entire game.
Iowa State vs Kansas State
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Iowa State and Kansas State match up statistically:
Iowa State Offense vs. Kansas State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 132 | 28 | |
| Line Yards | 132 | 25 | |
| Pass Success | 85 | 21 | |
| Havoc | 50 | 27 | |
| Finishing Drives | 86 | 21 | |
| Quality Drives | 46 | 30 | |
Kansas State Offense vs. Iowa State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 22 | 46 | |
| Line Yards | 43 | 27 | |
| Pass Success | 26 | 40 | |
| Havoc | 13 | 66 | |
| Finishing Drives | 4 | 27 | |
| Quality Drives | 45 | 29 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 62 | 119 |
| PFF Coverage | 16 | 44 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 32 | 83 |
| Middle 8 | 30 | 109 |
| Seconds per Play | 30.1 (119) | 26.0 (46) |
| Rush Rate | 50.8% (85) | 55.9% (43) |
Iowa State vs Kansas State
Betting Pick & Prediction
I'm unsure why the Cyclones are getting so much love in the market, but I'm backing Kansas State here. Nothing in the statistics or situation tells me the Cyclones have a fighting chance here.
The Wildcats may turn the ball over, and the Cyclones' defense might step up, but even if that happens, Iowa State's offense will be hindered enough.
The Cyclones also used up all their energy in last week's game, and I doubt they'll be motivated for this week.
It won't take much from Howard and Johnson to get the job done, as I have plenty of faith in this Wildcat defense to shut down Becht and Co.
Expect the Cats to roll here on Senior Day and end the season with a statement.
Pick: Kansas State -10 (Play to -11)
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