The Iowa State Cyclones (10-3, 7-2 Big 12) take on the Miami Hurricanes (10-2, 6-2 ACC) in the Pop-Tarts Bowl on Saturday, Dec. 28. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
The Pop-Tarts Bowl took an express track to postseason stardom after a rebranding in 2023. After having many previous sponsors, Kellogg's made the quick decision to rebrand it under the Pop-Tarts umbrella last season, leading to the live frosted strawberry mascot to be toasted and eaten after a victory by Kansas State.
The Hurricanes came up short in their quest to win the ACC Championship, losing 2 of the final 3 games in road trips to Syracuse and Georgia Tech. The Cyclones also came up short of winning the Big 12 Championship in Arlington, suffering a 45-19 blowout to playoff-bound Arizona State in the conference title game.
Neither of the head coaches have been successful in bowls, as Iowa State's Matt Campbell is 3-7 against the number in bowls compared to Miami's Mario Cristobal at 2-5-1 against the spread.
The Hurricanes enter as -3.5 favorites with the over/under set at 56.5.
Let's dive into my Iowa State vs. Miami predictions and college football picks for the 2024 Pop-Tarts Bowl on Saturday, Dec. 28.
Iowa State Cyclones vs Miami Hurricanes Prediction, Picks
- Iowa State vs. Miami Pick: Over 57
My Miami vs. Iowa State best bet is on both teams to go over the total, with the best line currently available at BetRivers, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Iowa State vs Miami Odds, Spread
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 61.5 -110 / -110 | +170 |
| Miami Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 61.5 -110 / -110 | -210 |
- Iowa State vs Miami Spread: Miami -5.5, Iowa State +5.5
- Iowa State vs Miami Over/Under: 61.5
- Iowa State vs Miami Moneyline: Miami ML -210, Iowa State +170
Iowa State vs Miami Pop-Tarts Bowl Betting Preview
Iowa State Cyclones Betting Preview
Quarterback Rocco Becht has not produced at the same level in terms of efficiency and explosives as he did in his true freshman season last year.
The sophomore has nearly doubled his turnover-worthy play rate while cutting drops in half.
The offensive line has remained at a steady pressure-allowed rate year over year, as Becht continues to produce the same rate of mistakes whether the pocket is clean or filled with opponents.
The good news for the Iowa State offense is the status of explosive wide receivers Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, both expected to play with a combined 239 targets on the season.
That's a receiving TD in seven of eight games this season for @JaydenHiggins3!
🌪️🚨🌪️ pic.twitter.com/ZJITaeYJIf
— Iowa State Football (@CycloneFB) November 2, 2024
The bad news for the Cyclones comes on the defensive side of the ball, as the 3-3-5 scheme will be without their top contributors on the defensive line.
Edge Tyler Onyedim entered the transfer portal, along with reserves from the trench that struggled to produce this season. The Cyclones finished 120th in pass rush and 109th in rush explosives allowed.
The nickel defense has always been best suited to defend the pass with high marks in coverage, but potent rush offenses have had their way with Iowa State.
The Big 12 Championship loss saw Arizona State average over eight yards per play and a 58% Success Rate in standard downs.
Miami Hurricanes Betting Preview
Quarterback Cam Ward failed in his aspirations to win the Heisman or clinch a conference championship, but the quarterback is expected to play in the Pop-Tarts Bowl despite high projections in the upcoming NFL Draft.
The only potential opt-outs for Miami may come on the offensive line with Jalen Rivers, but several other players contributed at left guard and left tackle.
Despite the potential of wide receiver Xavier Restrepo not playing, this Miami offense was top-10 in nearly every category, including Quality Drives and big-play rate.
Cam Ward has a bright future in the NFL.
He's mobile, but he's not a scrambler. That's my favorite thing about Ward. He's calm in the pocket, and when it collapses, he improvises. He does not panic and just take off running. He buys time for his WRs.
pic.twitter.com/xPms6HTTzC— O'Leary's Draft Takes (@GagesDraftTakes) December 20, 2024
Creating Havoc is the quickest way to limit the Miami offense, an area where the Hurricanes defense has thrived.
Coordinator Lance Guidry called plays for a top-20 Havoc defense that also finished top-30 in Success Rate.
The issues for Miami's defense start with poor tackling and a bottom-15 efficiency number in passing downs. This is a heavily penalized unit, ranking 121st in yards per game with nearly 70 penalty yards per game.
Miami vs Iowa State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Miami and Iowa State match up statistically:
Iowa State Offense vs. Miami Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 100 | 28 | |
| Line Yards | 101 | 22 | |
| Pass Success | 72 | 32 | |
| Havoc | 23 | 20 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 50 | 68 | |
| Quality Drives | 14 | 54 | |
Miami Offense vs. Iowa State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 2 | 70 | |
| Line Yards | 2 | 61 | |
| Pass Success | 8 | 34 | |
| Havoc | 6 | 72 | |
| Finishing Drives | 2 | 21 | |
| Quality Drives | 1 | 10 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 120 | 92 |
| PFF Coverage | 11 | 65 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 78 | 16 |
| Middle 8 | 51 | 44 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.4 (40) | 27.7 (88) |
| Rush Rate | 53% (69) | 46% (113) |
Iowa State vs Miami Pick, Best Bets
There will be no shortage of scoring opportunities in the Pop-Tarts Bowl.
Along with a poor rush defense, Iowa State failed to generate Havoc this season with an overall rank of 72nd in FBS. Ward's college career is chock-full of mistakes when Havoc is part of the equation, logging 17 turnover-worthy plays and four fumbles this season.
Without no pressure expected from a thin ISU defensive line, the Hurricanes will flex with the best offensive unit in terms of methodical drives, explosives and third-down conversion rate.
Running back Damien Martinez averaged 3.9 yards after first contact while forcing 34 missed tackles, an issue for a Cyclones defense that's 92nd in broken tackles allowed.
The bigger question is the struggles of the Iowa State offense, which ranks 14th in Quality Drives but 50th in Finishing Drives. Miami has had severe struggles when opponents reach the extended red zone, ranking 68th in Finishing Drives allowed.
Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins should have a clear window to catch explosives from Becht, as the Hurricanes rank 46th in creating contested catches.
Miami has caught steam in the market with the growing belief that the full roster will participate.
Our Action Network power ratings project Miami as a touchdown favorite, but the bigger advantage could come from the total. The Cyclones run a quick 25.4 seconds per play, while the Hurricanes have a large advantage in creating rush explosives.
Look to take the over with the market currently south of the key number of 59.
Pick: Over 57
Iowa State vs Miami Channel, How to Watch, Start Time, Location, Streaming
| Location: | Camping World Stadium, Orlando, FL |
| Date: | Saturday, Dec. 28 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ABC |
Iowa State faces Miami in the Pop-Tarts Bowl in Orlando on Saturday, Dec. 28 at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Miami vs Iowa State Betting Trends to Know
Miami vs Iowa State Weather Forecast
