Iowa State vs Oklahoma State Odds
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -115 | 48 -105o / -115u | -125 |
| Oklahoma State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -105 | 48 -105o / -115u | +105 |
It was only a month ago that the Oklahoma State Cowboys were ranked as high as seventh in the country.
Now, that seems like a distant memory as they've lost three of their last four games. However, this may be their shot to get back on track.
Speaking of getting back on track, the Iowa State Cyclones did just that last week when they defeated West Virginia to snap a five-game losing streak.
It will be interesting to see if they can keep the momentum going in this matchup.
However, there's one massive question mark that could swing the game entirely. Let's take a closer look and find out how to play this game as we wait for the big question to be answered.
Iowa State Cyclones
The Cyclones were a team that showed early potential as their defense remained locked in, and Hunter Dekkers cruised through nonconference play.
However, as they got into their conference schedule, it was clear they were lacking a key element: the ability to run the ball.
The Cyclones haven't sustained success on the ground, and it has cost them this season as it's forced them to play outside of a winning game script.
Typically, when you see a team that has a quality defense, it will run the ball and control the clock because it wants to get on the board and limit its opponents' opportunities to score. However, the Cyclones' inability to run the ball has killed that scheme.
Consequently, Iowa State is 115th in red-zone scoring rate and 106th in points per game. They've missed 27% of the scoring opportunities they've generated, which is far too costly in Big 12 football.
Although, we can't harp on their downfall so much as they may have opportunities to move the football quite a bit against this Oklahoma State secondary.
The Cowboys have been beaten up by volume passing attacks as they rank 88th in yards per pass allowed and 130th in passing yards per game allowed. The Pokes rank 111th in tackling and 85th in pass coverage, per PFF.
They've allowed quite a bit of YAC this year, and the Cyclones' passing attack could thrive against them. However, converting their drives into points is another question for the Iowa State offense.
Oklahoma State Cowboys
The big question surrounding this game is the status of Oklahoma State quarterback Spencer Sanders.
Sanders was forced to miss last week's game, and the Cowboys suffered a blowout loss to Kansas. Mind you, that loss came just a week after losing 48-0 against Kansas State in a game where Sanders was banged up.
His status will determine if his team wins or losses this game. If Sanders is back there, he should find some holes in this Iowa State defense.
Its pass numbers are daunting as they rank 33rd in opponent competition percentage and are 25th in yards per pass allowed. However, it's faced the eighth-fewest pass attempts on a per-game basis.
The Cowboys are a high-volume passing attack, as they average the 12th-most attempts per game. But just like their counterparts, the volume, especially from the arm of Sanders, will produce points.
Iowa State vs Oklahoma State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Iowa State and Oklahoma State match up statistically:
Iowa State Offense vs. Oklahoma State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 117 | 59 | |
| Line Yards | 122 | 20 | |
| Pass Success | 64 | 49 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 92 | 41 | |
| Havoc | 53 | 78 | |
| Finishing Drives | 66 | 81 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Oklahoma State Offense vs. Iowa State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 104 | 66 | |
| Line Yards | 90 | 38 | |
| Pass Success | 41 | 66 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 102 | 73 | |
| Havoc | 49 | 65 | |
| Finishing Drives | 22 | 5 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 80 | 111 |
| PFF Coverage | 67 | 85 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 104 | 16 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.9 (80) | 21.0 (4) |
| Rush Rate | 43.9% (117) | 48.5% (95) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Iowa State vs Oklahoma State Betting Pick
Thus far, the market has not given us any indication that Sanders will be active in this game. If that's the case, the under will be the play here, as Oklahoma State's offense is drastically different with Gunnar Gundy at the helm.
Even if Iowa State can sustain drives, the Cyclones will not light up the scoreboard.
If Sanders does play, I will be on the Cowboys, as I expect this line to flip in their favor. Sanders brings this offense to life, and even though it's a tough matchup, the Pokes should outlast the Cyclones.
Pick: Under 48.5 ⋅ Oklahoma State -1 (If Sanders Plays) |
