We've got a pivotal Big 12 clash on Saturday afternoon. The Iowa State Cyclones (8-2, 5-2 Big 12) travel to Salt Lake City to take on the Utah Utes (4-6, 1-6). The Cyclones need help making the Big 12 Championship game, so they can't afford to slip up the rest of the way.
The Clones can make the title game by winning out, and BYU and Colorado losing at least once in their final two matchups would give them the upper hand due to their strict conference schedule. There's a lot on the line this Saturday, and I'm sure Utah head coach Kyle Wittingham would love to play spoiler.
The Utes have had another injury-filled season, but they've shown some flashes over the last couple of weeks that they are putting forth valiant efforts on the field. Oddsmakers have the Clones tagged as 7-point road favorites, with the total set at 42.5.
Let's dive into my Iowa State vs. Utah predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 23.
Iowa State vs Utah Prediction
- Iowa State vs. Utah Pick: Under 42.5
My Utah vs. Iowa State best bet is on the under at 42.5 total points, with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Iowa State vs Utah Odds
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 42.5 -110 / -110 | -270 |
| Utah Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 42.5 -110 / -110 | +220 |
- Iowa State vs Utah Spread: Iowa State -7 (-110) · Utah +7 (-110)
- Iowa State vs Utah Over/Under: 42.5 Points
- Iowa State vs Utah Moneyline: Iowa State -270 · Utah +220
Iowa State vs Utah Preview
Iowa State Cyclones Betting Preview: Still Alive in CFP Race
The Clones are still alive in the CFP race, but must win the Big 12 Championship to earn a spot. They still have hurdles to climb before they can even have that thought.
The Clones do not control their destiny, but they will if BYU and Colorado lose one more conference game. Not for nothing, it is not an easy matchup heading into Salt Lake, regardless of who the Utes are sending out on the field.
Offensively, they've been a rush-heavy team that has lacked sustainable success. You cannot run on the Utes defense anyway, but it is still remarkable that the Clones run the ball at a 62% clip and still struggle.
They are ranked below the Top 90 in Rush Success Rate and Line Yards. My other concern is that it is a tough matchup against the Utes secondary.
QB Rocco Becht has had a solid season, but the Utes defense is the most formidable unit he's faced all season. Many people are down on the Utes, but their defense has been consistent for most of the season.
I do not see a path for many explosive plays for the offense, so getting points on the board might be a struggle. That will add a lot of pressure to the defense, but the good news is that their matchup is highly delicious.
The Clones have an elite secondary, and they should shut down any aerial attack that the Utes throw their way. They are 12th in PFF Coverage and 19th in Pass Success Rate.
The defense buckled down when their opponents reached the red zone, as they were 19th in Finishing Drives Allowed. The Utes offense has been a disaster without Cam Rising, and they've also dealt with numerous other injuries.
We've also had a massive discrepancy in the trenches here, as the Clone's defense should create a ton of Havoc against a poor Utes offensive front. I expect their defensive front to dominate most of the game despite their struggles against the run.
It should be a tremendous defensive effort from the Clones here, which will help if their offense sputters against a strong Utes defense. With that said, I can’t lay over a TD with them here.
Utah Utes Betting Preview: Offensive Line is a Concern
The Utes were pushed around last weekend in Boulder, and their offense looked much worse than the points they put up. It’s been a lost season for the Utes, and injuries have ravaged the program.
Besides QB Cam Rising, the Utes also lost backup QB Brandon Rose. TE Brant Kuithe is also out on Saturday, which is a significant part of their offense.
The Utes had already struggled even with both guys in the lineup, but now their offensive weaponry is even more bleak. They rank outside the Top-100 in most offensive metrics, including Pass and Rush Success Rate.
My biggest concern is their offensive line. They’re 123rd in Havoc Allowed, and it’s a bad matchup against a good Clones’ defensive front.
You can run the ball on Iowa State, but the problem is that the Utah offense has lacked any explosive plays on the ground. I don’t think they’ll be able to take advantage of that soft matchup.
Defensively, I have no doubts that they will give them a chance to win this game. It’s been an outstanding unit for most of the season, with only a couple of blips where they looked vulnerable.
Their ability to limit consistent drives and lockdown in the red zone should be a huge factor here, as the Clone's offense is 9th in Quality Drives. I give the Utes an edge in that department, and I believe their defense should have the upper-hand.
Iowa State vs Utah Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Iowa State and Utah match up statistically:
Iowa State Offense vs. Utah Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 99 | 6 | |
| Line Yards | 86 | 11 | |
| Pass Success | 50 | 36 | |
| Havoc | 26 | 30 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 42 | 20 | |
| Quality Drives | 9 | 15 | |
Utah Offense vs. Iowa State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 111 | 89 | |
| Line Yards | 104 | 62 | |
| Pass Success | 120 | 19 | |
| Havoc | 123 | 69 | |
| Finishing Drives | 113 | 23 | |
| Quality Drives | 103 | 14 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 127 | 126 |
| PFF Coverage | 12 | 69 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 34 | 53 |
| Middle 8 | 65 | 71 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.6 (77) | 30.1 (126) |
| Rush Rate | 54% (62) | 53% (86) |
Iowa State vs Utah Pick & Prediction
I leaned toward taking the points with Utah, but I will grab the under instead. It’s hovering above a critical number of 41, so I will take it before it dips any further.
The Utes defense should step up at home here and keep the Clones rush-heavy offensive approach in check. Whittingham is far too good of a coach to allow his team to quit, regardless of the circumstances.
It’s as ugly as it gets on offense for Utah, so I don’t expect them to have much success being down to their 3rd String QB in Isaac Wilson. They’re also a snail on offense, so the clock should churn whenever they have the ball.
The Clones have a rush-heavy approach and take their time between snaps. It’s not an easy matchup for their offense either, so there’s a path where both of these teams turn this game into a field position battle.
Pick: Under 42.5 (-110)
Iowa State vs Utah Start Time, TV Channel, Location, How to Watch
| Location: | Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City, Utah |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 23 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FOX |
Iowa State vs Utah Betting Trends
Iowa State vs Utah Weather
