Two teams in the thick of the Big 12 Championship race will face off on Saturday when Iowa State travels to West Virginia.
Iowa State is 5-0 with a rivalry win at Iowa and a pair of conference wins over Houston and Baylor.
West Virginia dropped its two big non-conference games against Penn State and Pittsburgh but is 2-0 in conference play with wins over Kansas and Oklahoma State.
Iowa State is a 2.5-point favorite, and the over/under is 53.5. The game kicks off at 8 p.m. ET and can be streamed live on FOX.
Check out my Iowa State vs West Virginia predictions and college football picks for Saturday, October 12.
Iowa State vs West Virginia Odds Odds, Spread, Line
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 53.5 -112o / -108u | -155 |
| West Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 53.5 -112o / -108u | +130 |
- Iowa State vs West Virginia Spread: Iowa State -3.5
- Iowa State vs West Virginia Over/Under: 53.5 Points
- Iowa State vs West Virginia Moneyline: Iowa State ML -155 · West Virginia ML +130
Iowa State Cyclones vs West Virginia Mountaineers Prediction
My West Virginia Iowa State is on the Cyclones to cover the 2.5-point spread at FanDuel Sportsbook.
- Iowa State vs West Virginia Pick: Iowa State -2.5 (Play to -3.5)
Pick
My top Iowa State vs. West Virginia bet is on the Cyclones to cover the spread up to -3.5.
Spread
Taking Iowa State on the spread is my favorite bet for this game.
Over/Under
With a total of 53.5, I don't see value on these teams going over or under.
Moneyline
While I think Iowa State will win, I'm not going to lay the juice and would rather take the Cyclones on the spread.
Iowa State Cyclones Betting Preview: Challenging Defense
Sophomore quarterback Rocco Becht was thrown into the first last year as a redshirt freshman.
He handled it better than anybody expected, averaging 240 yards per game with 23 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He was named Big 12 Offensive Freshman of the Year.
This year, Becht has nine touchdowns and three interceptions through five games while improving his completion rate and yards per attempt from last year.
His wide receiver room is adequate, although not deep. Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins are both averaging over 80 yards per game and have combined for seven touchdowns. But nobody on the Cyclones has more than seven catches besides those two — no other receiver has more than four.
Luckily, the running back room does have depth. Jaylon Jackson (48 carries), Abu Sama (48 carries), and Carson Hansen (41 carries) have operated as a three-headed monster all splitting time. They each average over 42 yards per game and five yards per carry on the ground.
We have come to expect Matt Campbell’s defenses to be challenging to play against, and that is the case again in 2024. The Cyclones have yet to allow more than 21 points in a game and rank 11th nationally in yards per play allowed (4.4).
Iowa State is terrific at keeping everything in front of them. The 'Clones rank ninth nationally in Explosiveness allowed and sixth in Defensive Finishing Drives. Their pass defense has been excellent behind a pair of elite safeties, Beau Freyler and Malik Verdon.
West Virginia Mountaineers Betting Preview: Can't Stop The Pass
West Virginia runs its RPO offense quite well.
Quarterback Garrett Greene is averaging 59.0 rushing yards per game on the ground and has two lethal backs in the backfield with him in CJ Donaldson and Jahiem White. Donaldson is a more consistent runner, while White serves as the big play threat, but they each average over 70 rushing yards per game.
As a passer, Greene is often described as a single- or home-run quarterback. 15 of his 28 career touchdown passes have come on throws of 20-plus yards. He hasn't been as aggressive as last year, and teams have started to defend him differently, but he still has the third-highest big-time throw rate among Big 12 quarterbacks — even if it is half of what it was last year.
Still, West Virginia is a run-first offense that ranks 14th nationally in rush yards per game (223).
Defensively, the Mountaineers have taken a step back. They're allowing six yards per play and have allowed at least 28 points in three of their four FBS games. They are solid up front and do a good job tackling, but this team has failed to create Havoc like they did last year while allowing too many red zone conversions.
West Virginia has been particularly poor at defending the pass, ranking 126th in Pass Success Rate allowed and 127th in PFF's Coverage grades. The Mountaineers had to replace both starting cornerbacks from last year's stop unit, and the newcomers haven't replicated 2023's production.
West Virginia vs Iowa State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how West Virginia and Iowa State match up statistically:
Iowa State Offense vs. West Virginia Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 89 | 35 | |
| Line Yards | 61 | 24 | |
| Pass Success | 30 | 126 | |
| Havoc | 27 | 88 | |
| Finishing Drives | 35 | 114 | |
| Quality Drives | 7 | 68 | |
West Virginia Offense vs. Iowa State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 28 | 54 | |
| Line Yards | 25 | 20 | |
| Pass Success | 74 | 6 | |
| Havoc | 82 | 48 | |
| Finishing Drives | 13 | 6 | |
| Quality Drives | 25 | 6 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 115 | 6 |
| PFF Coverage | 9 | 127 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 89 | 30 |
| Middle 8 | 54 | 61 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.5 (111) | 27.4 (68) |
| Rush Rate | 56% (39) | 62% (27) |
How to Bet My Iowa State vs West Virginia Pick
I see two obvious advantages for the Cyclones.
First, Becht should be able to move the ball through the air against this vulnerable Mountaineers secondary.
Iowa State ranks 30th nationally in Pass Success Rate. Noel and Higgins should be able to make plays against a lifeless Cyclone secondary.
Second, Iowa State's defense prevents teams from cashing in on scoring opportunities.
West Virginia has had issues sustaining long drives this season. And even when the Mountaineers sustain a drive, they likely struggle to score against a Cyclones defense that ranks sixth nationally in Defensive Finishing Drives (2.09 points per opportunity allowed).
I expect Iowa State to be able to move the ball successfully against the Mountaineers' defense. And I expect the Cyclones to cash in those scoring opportunities, as West Virginia ranks 113th nationally in Defensive Finishing Drives (4.87 points per opportunity allowed).
Iowa State should have more opportunities to score and should cash in more of those opportunities.
Back the Cyclones as a short favorite in Morgantown.
Pick: Iowa State -2.5 (Play to -3.5)
Iowa State vs West Virginia Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | Milan Puskar Stadium, Morgantown, WV |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct 12 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FOX |
Iowa State vs West Virginia will be played at Milan Puskar Stadium in Morgantown, West Virginia, on Saturday, Oct. 12 at 8 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on FOX.
West Virginia vs Iowa State Betting Trends
Iowa State vs West Virginia Weather
