Two of the top teams in Conference USA meet on Wednesday night when the Liberty Flames (5-1, 3-1 CUSA) and Jacksonville State Gamecocks (4-3, 3-0) battle in Lynchburg.
The Flames lost their first regular-season game under head coach Jamey Chadwell with a 27-24 upset loss to Kennesaw State last week.
Meanwhile, the Gamecocks come into this one as one of the hottest teams in the conference, winning the last 4 to move to 4-3 overall and 3-0 in CUSA play.
This is a pair of programs led by veteran coaches with exciting offenses, which should give us an entertaining encounter. So, let’s dive into my Jacksonville State vs. Liberty predictions and college football picks for Wednesday, Oct. 30.
Jacksonville State vs Liberty Prediction
- Jacksonville State vs. Liberty Pick: Quinton Cooley Over 84.5 Rushing Yards
My Liberty vs. Jacksonville State best bet on Flames running back Quinton Cooley to go over his rushing yardage prop, with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Jacksonville State vs Liberty Odds
| Jacksonville State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 63 -110 / -110 | +105 |
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 63 -110 / -110 | -125 |
- Jacksonville State vs Liberty Point Spread: Liberty -2 (-110) · Jacksonville State +2 (-110)
- Jacksonville State vs Liberty Over/Under: 63 Points
- Jacksonville State vs Liberty Moneyline: Liberty -125 · Jacksonville State +105
Jacksonville State vs Liberty Preview
Jacksonville State Gamecocks Betting Preview: Improving and Progressing
Jacksonville State had a memorable season in the program’s first year in the FBS in 2023. Unfortunately for the Gamecocks, the momentum didn’t come into this campaign leading to a slow start.
To open 2024, the Gamecocks lost their first three games to Coastal Carolina, Louisville and Eastern Michigan. The schedule has lightened up over the last four weeks, and head coach Rich Rodriguez’s team has dominated.
Jacksonville State scored a combined 203 points in the victories over Southern Miss, Kennesaw State, New Mexico State and Middle Tennessee. The plan for attack in those wins was spearheaded by the ground game, and I don’t see that changing here.
During this stretch, the Gamecocks have averaged over 350 rushing yards per game to go along with 23 touchdowns on the ground.
This rushing attack has been led by the dynamic duo of Tyler Huff and Tre Stewart. Unfortunately for the Gamecocks, Huff's status is in question coming into this game after an injury he picked up last week.
If he can't go, Jacksonville State has a veteran backup in Logan Smothers, but it would be a drop-off from how well Huff has played.
Liberty Flames Betting Preview: Looking to Bounce Back
At some point, the long winning streaks had to come to an end for Liberty. However, I don’t believe anyone expected that to happen against Kennesaw State.
The Flames closed as 27-point favorites on the spread in that game and took a lot of late money. To make matters worse, it was the first victory for the Owls since they made the jump up to the FBS level.
If Chadwell is going to get the season back on track, he needs to get his offensive duo of Kaidon Salter and Quinton Cooley rolling again.
Salter had one of his better games in the defeat, rushing for a season-high 87 yards and throwing three touchdowns. However, Cooley struggled in the loss, but he has topped 100 rushing yards in four of his last six games.
He needs to establish the run game to help Liberty keep the ball away from Jacksonville State’s explosive offense.
Jacksonville State vs Liberty Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Jacksonville State and Liberty match up statistically:
Jacksonville State Offense vs. Liberty Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 20 | 35 | |
| Line Yards | 26 | 7 | |
| Pass Success | 53 | 36 | |
| Havoc | 34 | 56 | |
| Finishing Drives | 6 | 64 | |
| Quality Drives | 29 | 56 | |
Liberty Offense vs. Jacksonville State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 10 | 114 | |
| Line Yards | 34 | 85 | |
| Pass Success | 51 | 65 | |
| Havoc | 28 | 57 | |
| Finishing Drives | 52 | 100 | |
| Quality Drives | 68 | 94 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 8 | 19 |
| PFF Coverage | 39 | 54 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 105 | 104 |
| Middle 8 | 17 | 14 |
| Seconds per Play | 23.8 (12) | 27.5 (75) |
| Rush Rate | 64% (7) | 61% (16) |
Jacksonville State vs Liberty Pick & Prediction
Ultimately, the key to this game is going to be who can have more success running the ball, which I believe points to a clear advantage for the home team.
Because I think the lines on the spread and total are about right, I’m electing to look at the player prop market.
With that said, my best bet is for Cooley, Liberty's lead back, to fly over his rushing yard total of 84.5 at FanDuel, which I would play up to 87.5. I also don’t hate a look at Cooley to score the first touchdown at +400 odds or better.
Coming into this game, the Flames offense ranks inside the top 25 in the country in Rush Rate. This is the same unit that's 44th in Rush EPA per Play and 40th in Rush Success Rate.
Meanwhile, this is the exact way teams want to attack the Jacksonville State defense. The Gamecocks sit outside the top 100 in Rush EPA per Play allowed and Rush Success Rate allowed.
Yes, the defense has played better in recent weeks, but I believe this is primarily down to the opposition. With that said, New Mexico State and Kennesaw State averaged 197.5 rushing yards against Jacksonville State.
If you go back to the tougher nonconference opposition, those three opponents averaged 226.3 rushing yards, with both Coastal Carolina and Louisville topping 200 yards on the ground.
We should get a motivated showing after the loss last week, and with only nine carries in that game, Cooley should be fresh to chew up yards against the Gamecocks.
Pick: Quinton Cooley Over 84.5 Rushing Yards (Play to 87.5)
Jacksonville State vs Liberty Start Time, TV Channel, Location, How to Watch
| Location: | Williams Stadium, Lynchburg, VA |
| Date: | Wednesday, Oct. 30 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | CBS Sports Network |
Jacksonville State takes on Liberty on Wednesday night in Lynchburg, Virginia, at 7 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
Jacksonville State vs Liberty Betting Trends
- 49% of bets and 67% of the money are on Liberty to cover the spread
- 76% of bets and 71% of the money on the moneyline are on Liberty to win outright
- 69% of bets and 87% of the money are on the under
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
Jacksonville State vs Liberty Weather
