James Madison (2-0) travels to Chapel Hill, North Carolina, to take on North Carolina (3-0) on Saturday September 21. The game kicks off at 12:00 p.m. ET and can be seen live on ACC Network.
In their last game, the Dukes won an ugly one against Gardner-Webb, 13-6. Meanwhile, on the other side, the Tar Heels cruised 45-10 against NC Central.
North Carolina is favored by 10.5 points on the spread and the over/under is set at 48. The Heels are -437 on the moneyline.
My James Madison vs. UNC prediction is below.
James Madison vs North Carolina Odds, Pick
| James Madison Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +320 |
| North Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -400 |
- Point Spread: James Madison +10 (-110) · North Carolina -10 (-110)
- Total: Over/Under 48.5
- Moneyline: James Madison +320 · North Carolina -400
- Pick: UNC -10
James Madison vs UNC Preview
James Madison Football
James Madison is fresh off a bye week and defeated Gardner-Webb 13-6 in its most recent game. While the Dukes are undefeated, their offense has really taken a step back compared to what we saw last year.
JMU didn't score in the first half against Gardner-Webb and only led Charlotte 9-7 at half after an interception set up a short JMU touchdown drive.
Quarterback Alonza Barnett III has been a bit underwhelming against two inferior foes. The JMU offensive line has struggled to open up holes for the running game and has allowed an uncharacteristic amount of Havoc plays against them.
The Dukes defense has played as expected against two significantly weaker offenses, but the test figures to get a lot harder this week in Chapel Hill.
UNC Football
UNC is coming off a convincing victory against FCS North Carolina Central, a game in which the Tar Heels got off to a slow start. UNC started quarterback Conner Harrell for the injured Max Johnson, but pulled the plug after two series.
The Tar Heels turned to third stringer Jacolby Criswell and caught lightning in a bottle as he led three scoring drives in the first half. The sparingly used Criswell orchestrated four more scoring drives in the second half to extend the margin and grab firm control of the job going forward.
The UNC defense stiffened quickly after allowing an opening drive touchdown. For the game, UNC allowed just 167 total yards and 76 rushing yards on 39 attempts.
North Carolina vs James Madison
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how James Madison and North Carolina match up statistically:
James Madison Offense vs. North Carolina Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 70 | 30 | |
| Line Yards | 126 | 36 | |
| Pass Success | 100 | 37 | |
| Havoc | 118 | 59 | |
| Finishing Drives | 91 | 59 | |
| Quality Drives | 68 | 55 | |
North Carolina Offense vs. James Madison Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 20 | 12 | |
| Line Yards | 26 | 54 | |
| Pass Success | 111 | 31 | |
| Havoc | 61 | 97 | |
| Finishing Drives | 50 | 5 | |
| Quality Drives | 56 | 12 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 111 | 97 |
| PFF Coverage | 63 | 111 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 56 | 10 |
| Middle 8 | 22 | 123 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.9 (69) | 26.4 (48) |
| Rush Rate | 66% (16) | 62% (25) |
James Madison vs UNC Prediction
I'm going to lay the points with UNC. JMU has made its mark on the FBS since moving up from the FCS, but is getting a little too much respect here. This offense is really going to struggle in this matchup.
UNC has been incredible this year against the run. The front seven is filling holes and has proven to be a sound tackling uni. UNC is top 30 in havoc achieved on defense, something JMU struggles with offensively as it's 120th in offensive havoc allowed. The Dukes have four explosive rushes this year, but have run the ball 77 times, so the explosive rush rate is weak.
JMU is 126th in standard down EPA per play and 132nd in standard down explosiveness. UNC hasn't surrendered explosive plays on standard downs this season, so the result here could be JMU living in third and medium-to-long.
JMU is just 6-for-23 on third down and 1-for-5 on fourth-down conversions this season. UNC has played its best defense on third down, limiting opponents to just 11 conversions over 40 attempts.
Offensively, the Tarheels have struggled, but I really like what I saw from Criswell last week. I expect the pressure on him to be low as UNC prevents pressure and doesn't allow havoc against its offense. Additionally, JMU is 90th in defensive havoc achieved.
UNC's EPA per rush and rush play success rate are both in the top 25, and this is the best offensive line JMU has faced this season.
JMU is rested and UNC has rival Duke on deck, but with a third-string quarterback who needs to gain confidence heading into ACC play, there will be no looking ahead.
Pick: UNC -10.5 (Play to -12.5)
How to Watch James Madison vs North Carolina Live: Streaming, Channel, Time
| Location: | Kenan Stadium |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 21 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ACC Network |
North Carolina vs James Madison Betting Trends
- 51% of the bets and 55% of the money is on James Madison to cover the spread against UNC on Saturday.
- 69% of the bets and 50% of the money is on the over.
- 98% of the bets and 95% of the money is on the Heels ML.
North Carolina vs James Madison Weather
