The Kansas Jayhawks (1-4) looks to turn its season around when it travels to Tempe to take on Arizona State (3-1) at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN2 on Saturday.
The Jayhawks have had a terrible start to the season, losing four of their first five games after there was so much hype around them making some noise in the Big 12. It's been a mixture of bad luck and turnovers that have cost the Jayhawks, as three of their four losses have come by six points or less.
Because of their horrible start, they're now in must-win territory for the remainder of the season if they want to make a bowl game.
Arizona State is coming off a bye, but the last time it was in action, it lost its first-ever Big 12 game to Texas Tech, 30-23.
The Sun Devils didn't have high expectations coming into the season, but close wins against Mississippi State and Texas State have Kenny Dillingham's team in a good spot to make a bowl game after only winning three games in his first season.
Here's my Kansas vs. Arizona State predictions and my college football picks for Saturday.
Kansas vs Arizona State Prediction
- Kansas vs Arizona State Pick: Kansas +3
My Kansas vs Arizona State best bet is on the Jayhawks to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at BetRivers, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Kansas vs Arizona State Odds
| Kansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -114 | 50.5 -108o / -113u | +116 |
| Arizona St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -107 | 50.5 -108o / -113u | -148 |
- Kansas vs Arizona State Point Spread: Kansas +3 (-114) · Arizona State -3 (-107)
- Kansas vs Arizona State Total: Over/Under 50.5 (-108o / -113u)
- Kansas vs Arizona State Moneyline: Kansas +116 · Arizona State -148
Kansas vs Arizona State Preview
Kansas Jayhawks Betting Preview: Turnovers Killing Them
Turnovers are the reason Kansas is 1-4 right now, and it starts with Jalon Daniels. For all of his big-play ability, he's thrown eight interceptions and put the ball on the ground four times in only five games.
That has to improve if Kansas is going to win another game. The thing is, if he would stop turning it over at a high rate, the Jayhawks' offense would be pretty successful.
Kansas' rushing attack is averaging 5.4 yards per carry because the offensive line has done a great job creating running lanes, as it ranks 10th in the country in offensive line yards.
Devin Neal has been outstanding at running through those holes and not going down on first contact. He's averaging 4.15 yards per carry after contact and already has forced 23 missed tackles in only five games.
Kansas's defense has been below average this season, but there have been a lot of improvements from last season. In 2023, the Jayhawks were one of the least disciplined teams in the country, having one of the worst tackling grades, but now they're up 78th.
Along those lines, they've done a much better job against the run, ranking 67th in rushing success rate allowed. Last season, they were outside the top 100. Their run defense is going to be key in this game to try and stop Cam Skattebo.
Kansas is going to have a pretty big edge on special teams. Per SP+, the Jayhawks rank 13th, while Arizona State is 76th.
Kansas has a very accurate kicker in Tabor Allen, who's 5-5 on the season. It also has a really good punter in Damon Greaves, who's top-20 in the country in average punting distance.
Arizona State Sun Devils Betting Preview: Relying on the Run
Sam Leavitt has had an interesting season so far. He's a very good quarterback throwing in short to intermediate, but as soon as he has to throw the ball deep, he's very limited. His PFF passing grade on throws over 20+ yards is 50.6, and he's only completed three of his 19 attempts this season.
Leavitt has had a few questionable games, most notably against Mississippi State, when he only accumulated 69 passing yards on 20 attempts.
The Sun Devils' offense centers around Skattebo at running back. As Texas Tech found out, if you can shut him down, you can pretty much shut down the entire offense.
He's really only had one big game this season, when he ran for 262 yards against Mississippi State.
In fact, in his last two games, he's failed to average over 3.5 yards per carry, so if he's not able to run the ball and the pressure is on Leavitt to beat Kansas through the air, that's not a good situation for the Sun Devils.
Arizona State is surprisingly in the top 25 in the country in rushing success rate allowed. I say surprisingly because coming into the season, it had completely rebuilt its front seven through the transfer portal, with some of its best-run defenders leaving for bigger programs.
While the Sun Devils have been impressive versus the run, look at some of the teams they've played to achieve that. Most of them are pass-heavy teams with fairly weak rushing attacks, so Kansas will, without a doubt, be the best team they have seen this season.
Where Arizona State has struggled is limiting teams scoring opportunities. The Sun Devils are 128th in finishing drives allowed, with their opponents averaging 4.9 points every time they cross the 40-yard line.
That's bad news against Kansas, which is one of the most efficient teams at finishing off its scoring drives.
Kansas vs Arizona State
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Kansas and Arizona State match up statistically:
Kansas Offense vs. Arizona State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 25 | 25 |  |
| Line Yards | 10 | 27 | |
| Pass Success | 64 | 42 | |
| Havoc | 38 | 65 | |
| Finishing Drives | 12 | 128 | |
| Quality Drives | 86 | 55 | |
Arizona State Offense vs. Kansas Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 25 | 67 | |
| Line Yards | 20 | 73 | |
| Pass Success | 59 | 71 | |
| Havoc | 17 | 42 | |
| Finishing Drives | 110 | 65 | |
| Quality Drives | 26 | 93 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 69 | 78 |
| PFF Coverage | 85 | 78 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 13 | 76 |
| Middle 8 | 107 | 7 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.8 (97) | 27.8 (77) |
| Rush Rate | 59% (31) | 62% (18) |
Kansas vs Arizona State Pick & Prediction
Turnovers and finishing drives are the two biggest keys to this game.
If Daniels can stop giving the ball to the other team, the Kansas offense is going move the ball with ease, especially on the ground.
Even though Arizona State is 3-1 right now, it's terrible at taking advantage of scoring opportunities, ranking outside the top 100 in both finishing drives and finishing drives allowed.
For Kansas' defense, it all comes down to stopping Skattebo. He's been shut down in the last two games against Texas Tech and Texas State, and Leavitt hasn't lit either of those defenses up through the air.
This is a really good buy-low spot on Kansas. By the laws of statistical regression, Daniels can't keep turning the ball over at this high of a rate, and once he's able to clean up these turnovers, you're going to see the Kansas offense that we expected coming into the season.
I have this game projected right around a pick'em, so I like the value on Kansas at a key number of +3
Pick: Kansas +3
How to Watch Kansas vs Arizona State Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Mountain America Stadium, Tempe, AZ |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 5 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN2 |
Kansas vs Arizona State Betting Trends
- 70% of the tickets and 22% of the money are placed towards the Sun Devils covering the spread.
- 74% of the bets and 72% of the money is targeted towards the over.
- Arizona State moneyline has 93% of the bets and 51% of the money.
