Welcome to our expert debate for college football Week 3 and our Kansas vs UNLV predictions and picks for which team will cover the spread.
Throughout the 2024 college football season, our betting experts will preview the biggest marquee matchups and go back and forth on the cases for both teams to cover the spread, giving you all the information you need for your college football picks.
Kansas vs UNLV Odds, Spread, Predictions
| Kansas Jayhawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-8.5 -118 | 57.5 -112o / -108u | -350 |
| UNLV Rebels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+8.5 -104 | 57.5 -112o / -108u | +275 |
Why Kansas Jayhawks Can Cover the Spread
This line is an overcorrection to Kansas’s loss at Illinois last week.
The Jayhawks were considered a top 25 team last week and are still power-rated as a top 27 team.
UNLV is an excellent Mountain West team and will likely be in the conference title mix, but the gap between these two teams is still much more than a touchdown — our Action Network PRO model projects the Jayhawks as 11.5-point favorites.
Quarterback Jalon Daniels has proven to be one of the most electric players in the country when he is healthy.
He battled back injuries most of last year but finished 2022 with 18 touchdowns through the air and seven more on the ground. He averaged 8.8 yards per attempt passing and 5.4 yards per attempt passing.
Daniels' dual-threat ability is perfectly paired with star running back Devin Neal.
Neal is among the nation's best backs. He is coming off back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons and has averaged over 6.1 yards per carry across those two years. He has rushed for over 100 yards in each game this season, averaging 9.7 yards per pop.
The strength of this Kansas team is picking up big plays. They ranked 11th nationally in Explosiveness last year, and even without offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, they already have eight explosive plays this season.
This is still a Lance Leipold team. The Jayhawks rank 20th in Success Rate, averaging 6.5 yards per play.
I have some concerns about UNLV's defense — its biggest weakness is allowing chunk plays, which plays right into what Kansas wants to do on offense. The Rebels ranked 123rd in Explosiveness allowed last year.
That vulnerability hasn't reared its head yet this year, so maybe the Rebels have improved. But they've also played two awful offenses, and even a marginal Rebel improvement would still rank below average.
Even in the loss to the Illini, the Jayhawks outgained them and averaged 5.5 yards on the ground, but turnovers ultimately cost them the game as they blew a fourth-quarter lead.
I expect Kansas to bounce back here as UNLV takes a big step up in competition.
Why UNLV Rebels Can Cover the Spread
- UNLV: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS with a convincing win over Houston.
- Kansas: 1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS with a loss to Illinois.
It hasn’t been the best start to the season for Jalon Daniels under new offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes.
Grimes promised to bring a more rush-heavy, up-tempo offense to Kansas, which should help stud back Devin Neal reach new heights after consecutive 1,000-yard seasons. But it’s severely hindered Daniels and the Jayhawk aerial attack in the process:
| Kansas Stat | 2023 | 2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Rush Rate | 39.4% | 50.0% |
| Seconds Per Play | 28.8 | 26.7 |
| EPA per Dropback | .37 | .01 |
| Pass Success Rate | 49.4% | 46.3% |
Daniels has already thrown four interceptions on four turnover-worthy plays through two games. He registered a 47.4 Pro Football Focus passing grade against Illinois after completing 56% of his 32 passes for 140 yards at 4.4 YPA.
This is the price you pay for losing Andy Kotelnicki in the offseason. Drew Allar and Penn State’s passing offense already looks remarkably improved in early 2024 (10th nationally in EPA per Dropback), while Daniels and Kansas look sloppy and inaccurate.
Conversely, Brennan Marion’s Go-Go offense looks more than acceptable in the early season.
The Rebels run an uptempo, downhill-rush-heavy offense that sprinkles in deep shots once defenders get pulled into the box.
Nobody scored more points per game in the Mountain West last year than UNLV (34.4), and few teams nationally were as explosive (15th) behind WR1 Ricky White’s absurd 3.8 yards per route run (88 receptions, 1,483 yards, eight touchdowns), the nation’s second-highest mark among qualified pass catchers.
Through two games this year, the three-headed rushing attack of Michael Allen (5.8 YPC), Greg Burrell (7.8 YPC) and Kylin James (7.4 YPC) is adequately replacing Vincent Davis’ 760 yards from last year.
Meanwhile, White already has seven receptions for 122 yards and three scores (17.4 YPR, 3.8 YRR) – he’s the perfect explosive receiver for the Go-Go scheme.
I have some reservations about new QB1 Matthew Sluka, but he offers a high ceiling after four excellent years at Holy Cross. His RPO and dual-threat ability (129 yards at 6.5 YPC through two games) should fit well with Odom and Marion — he’s always a threat to break a scramble loose if you don’t put a spy on him.
He also has the arm to push the ball downfield, ranking in the top 15 nationally in yards per completion (16.6).
I love how Sluka and White fit with Odom and Marion. Two true boom-or-bust players in a boom-or-bust offense.
Of greater importance, the Jayhawk defense may be vulnerable against the Go-Go scheme.
While they’re strong at cornerback, they’re weak in the front seven after losing all five defensive linemen and three of the top four tacklers from last year’s stop unit. The line is also undersized, with only one guy weighing over 300 lbs.
If you can’t stop the run, the Go-Go will bury you, ripping off chunk downhill gains to set up deep shots to White.
Kansas ranked 119th nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed last year (45%). I don’t see them improving with an inexperienced, undersized front seven – especially against a UNLV offense that returned three starters from 2023’s offensive line, including second-team All-MWC right tackle Tiger Shanks.
Meanwhile, Daniels looks shaken, and Grimes looks like a huge downgrade. The Jayhawks must win a shootout on Thursday to cover this touchdown-sized spread, and I don’t see it happening.
Also, it’s worth mentioning that the home-field advantage is minimized, given that Kansas is playing all its home games at Arrowhead this year while David Booth Memorial Stadium undergoes renovations.
Why Jayhawks Are Better Bet
Ianniello: Daniels has gotten off to a slow start in this offense, but I expect him to improve as he settles into the system. He is also coming off a serious back injury and likely needs a few games to work back into game speed.
Also, I think Tanner is overselling Sluka a bit. Coming up from the FCS level, Sluka has struggled as a passer. He's averaging just 116 passing yards per game with a miserable 46.7% completion rate.
Sluka is no stranger to turnover-worthy throws himself. He already has two this year to just three big-time throws and totaled 43 career turnover-worthy plays against FCS competition.
I agree with Tanner in that Ricky White is an absolute stud. The problem is that Sluka doesn’t have the arm to take advantage of him. White has just seven catches on the season, averaging only 61 yards per game. He was invisible against Houston.
Kansas has some weapons of its own. Lawrence Arnold, Quentin Skinner, and Luke Grimm all return and have been staples in this wide receiver room. Skinner is back for his fourth season, while Arnold and Grimm are back for a fifth season with the Jayhawks.
Daniels is very familiar with these receivers, and they are going to click soon and bring the passing game up to par with the rushing attack.
While the Jayhawks defense lost a few starters, it’s not like they are rolling out a bunch of true freshmen.
Almost all of these guys were part of the rotation last year and are experienced players ready to step up. Eight of their 11 starters on defense are seniors, and the other three are juniors. These guys know what they are doing.
Kansas returns a strong cornerback duo in Cobee Bryant and Mello Dotson. The two seniors combined for eight interceptions last season. They have yet to allow over 200 yards passing this season or a passing touchdown. Kansas has only allowed one offensive touchdown all season.
With Sluka under center, UNLV's offense has looked very one-dimensional. While Daniels has been slow out of the gate, I trust him throwing the ball much more than Sluka.
Why Rebels Are Better Bet
McGrath: Daniels was a stud last season, but how much of that was Kotelnicki?
Jayhawk nation seems very worried that Grimes can’t protect Daniels from serious turnover regression – Daniels posted six big-time throws (3.7%) to 14 turnover-worthy plays (6.5%) across 205 dropbacks without the offensive savant in 2020.
While Kansas did out-gain Illinois and could’ve won the game last week, I don’t think it was a completely anomalous loss.
The Jayhawks' SP+ post-game win expectancy was just 58%, far from a dominant performance. They outgained an Illini team that I’m very low on by just 30 yards.
Of greater importance, I believe you’re lower than you should be on the Rebels’ defense. The unit is uber-experienced, having returned six starters from last year’s squad, including three all-conference players.
The top three tacklers from 2023 returned. Six of the top eight defensive linemen from 2023 returned. The top two defensive backs returned.
Odom also added a monster secondary piece in transfer Jalen Catalon, a sixth-year strong safety who played sparingly at Arkansas and Texas. With a step down in competition, the versatile athlete should shine – he currently ranks second among qualified safeties (min. 40 snaps) in PFF’s defensive grades (90.1).
Check out Catalon in this play against Houston:
He gets home on the pass rush, tips the screen pass, catches his tip and then takes it to the house after putting the quarterback on skates. He’s the type of impact transfer that can transform a secondary, especially one historically vulnerable to the deep, across-the-middle ball.
And while the Rebels are vulnerable to explosives, that’s baked into Odom’s aggressive, ball-hawking scheme.
UNLV picked off 17 passes last year, fourth nationally, including five from Cameron Oliver. Oliver, captain linebacker Jackson Woodard, Marsel McDuffie, Jonathan Baldwin and Jeff Elad combined for 23 PBUs last season, and they’re all returning for a repeat performance. Not to mention, Catalon already has two picks in the new system.
Considering Daniels’ erratic, turnover-prone play so far this year – and his history of erratic, turnover-worthy play without Kotelnicki — he might be in for a few more crucial mistakes, making it very difficult for Kansas to cover a moderately large spread.
The Rebels forced two interceptions and eight TFLs in Week 1 against Houston – suitable for 10 Havoc plays on a 16% Havoc rate — holding the Cougars to a staggeringly low 31% Success Rate (8th percentile) and -0.29 EPA per Play (seventh percentile). Houston isn’t a good offense, but those marks indicate the Rebels’ stop unit is no joke.
Kansas Football Spread: Why Jayhawks Will Cover
Ianniello: UNLV has some strengths, and the addition of Catalon has looked good so far.
Still, he's a former blue-chip recruit who is back for a sixth season in college at his third school. That is a big red flag. If he were all that talented, he would be in the NFL or at least still in the SEC.
Last season, the Rebels ranked outside the top 100 nationally in pass defense, explosives allowed, Havoc created, and defensive Finishing Drives. They're the perfect defense for Daniels and Kansas to get right against.
UNLV is built to beat up bad teams with their ability to create big plays. But look at what happened to the Rebels when they stepped up in competition — especially on defense:
- Michigan: 35 points, 8.1 yards per play
- Fresno State: 31 points, 5.1 yards per play
- San Jose State: 37 points, 7.3 yards per play
- Boise State: 44 points, 8.0 yards per play
Those are the four best offenses they played. They lost all four of those games.
Also, I’m not somebody who puts any stock into bowl games, so Kansas beating UNLV big in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl is not part of my handicap.
However, I think it is a big advantage for this defensive staff that they have seen this unique Go-Go offense before.
That is one area where the Jayhawks' new offense might actually help them. Their staff already scouted and prepared for UNLV just a few months ago, while the Rebels have to start from scratch.
It is also worth mentioning that Kansas threw for 449 yards and six touchdowns in that game while holding the UNLV rushing attack to just 95 yards on the ground.
UNLV Football Spread: Why Rebels Will Cover
McGrath: White was “invisible” against Houston because the Rebels didn’t need to use him. They went up multiple scores and then sat on the rock, running the ball a whopping 48 times to only 14 pass attempts.
But Odom, Marion and Sluka decided to get White involved, and he blew up, amassing 111 yards and three touchdowns on only five passes last week.
Are you telling me Sluka doesn’t have the arm to take advantage of White’s explosiveness? Who do you think threw White those passes!?
Here’s an absolute bomb thrown perfectly into single coverage:
Let’s talk about your weapons. Grimm caught nine passes against Illinois for a whopping 40 yards, suitable for 4.4 YPR. Arnold and Skinner combined for 80 yards on eight catches.
Illinois ' Zakhari Franklin was the best receiver on the field that day, and he posted his best line in two years (nine catches, 99 yards, one touchdown).
Why did Franklin post his best game in two years? Because whatever defensive experience Kansas has is relatively useless.
The Jayhawks ranked 117th in EPA per Play allowed last year and 123rd in Success Rate allowed. They ranked third-to-last nationally in EPA per Rush allowed, surrendering almost 5.5 yards per carry – it might not matter if UNLV is one-dimensional!
It’s far-fetched to say this unit “knows what they’re doing.”
Kansas started winning under Leipold because Kotelnicki built a beautiful, complex, motion-based system that pulled out high-scoring wins despite a lifeless defense. With the offensive system gone, all the Jayhawks have left is that lifeless, now more undersized defense.
Closing Arguments for Kansas vs UNLV Spread
Ianniello: Bet Kansas -9
I really like this UNLV team and think they will certainly be the contender in the Mountain West race.
Still, you are buying high on them here after a Power Conference win and a blasting of an FCS school.
Meanwhile, Kansas is coming off an upset loss against Illinois that knocked them out of the top 25. This has caused some people to sour on the Jayhawks a little bit, but I expect them to come back pissed off and ready to respond.
This game will be played at Children’s Mercy Park on Friday night. But after the unrelenting beating the Jayhawks will lay on Friday, we'll need to rename it Children’s NO MERCY Park.
Rock Chalk.
McGrath: Bet UNLV +9
Without Kotelnicki, Daniels and the Jayhawk offense will look sloppy, shaky and turnover-prone. With Catalon in the fold, the Rebel defense will take advantage by attacking, causing Havoc, and forcing turnovers.
Meanwhile, the Jayhawk defense is still ripe for the picking, specifically on the ground.
And on the ground is where Marion, Sluka and Co. will gash them. Leipold will attempt to bring more defenders into the box to support his undersized defensive line, and that’s when Marion will attack Kansas deep with White.
UNLV looks great — the Rebels are on the up-and-up. Kansas looks confused. I’ll bet the former.
