Kansas State vs Baylor Odds
| Kansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 52.5 -105o / -115u | +118 |
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 52.5 -105o / -115u | -142 |
Over the past few weeks, you may have heard the Big 12 referred to as the "No Bad Teams League." When you look at this conference from top to bottom, that nickname certainly has truth to it.
As a result, this is just another week at the office for two quality teams in Baylor and Kansas State.
Both the Bears and the Wildcats are tied with Texas for second place in the Big 12 at 4-2, so this is essentially an elimination game in the race to face TCU in the Big 12 Championship game.
Baylor has won the past four contests in this series and is also riding the momentum of a three-game winning streak.
Kansas State suffered a tough home loss last Saturday night to Texas, but the Wildcats rebounded strongly from their two earlier losses this year.
KSU won at Oklahoma following the Tulane loss and blitzed Oklahoma State, 48-0, the week after losing at TCU.
Let's dive into who has the edge on the field.
Kansas State Wildcats
Adrian Martinez was back under center when the Wildcats took the field last Saturday night against Texas. After injuring his knee against TCU, Martinez returned and played pretty well.
The Nebraska transfer threw for 329 yards and also carried it 14 times, whil scoring a touchdown with his legs.
All signs point to Martinez getting the nod again in Waco, and he should be fully in sync after knocking off some rust last week.
As always, Deuce Vaughn remains one of the most dynamic backs in the country and the senior could be in line for a big day against a Baylor defense that ranks 72nd in line yards.
Defensively, Kansas State needs to get after Blake Shapen with its front four. Shapen is a very accurate passer when he has time, but the numbers dip significantly when he is under pressure.
The Wildcats defense is inside the top 40 in both Rush and Pass success, and I believe they have the balance on all three levels to at least make life difficult for an efficient Baylor offense.
Baylor Bears
Baylor is starting to play its best football of the season in the most important stretch of the year.
Last week against Oklahoma, the Bears racked up 413 yards of total offense and gashed the Sooners on the ground.
Craig Williams carried it 25 times for 192 yards and two touchdowns, which was more carries than he had received in the prior four games combined.
The aforementioned Shapen continues to run a little hot and cold within this offense, but he's shown an ability to make big throws in big moments.
Look for offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes to try to get the running game going early against the Wildcats, and then turn to play action later in the contest.
The flip side to the Oklahoma game was the fact that the Sooners nearly went for 500 yards of total offense of their own. If not for three Dylan Gabriel interceptions, it very well could have been a different outcome in Norman.
The Bears are allowing far too many big plays and facing a notorious home-run hitter in Vaughn is cause for concern.
With Martinez back in the lineup and Vaughn's explosiveness, I have serious doubts about how well the Baylor defense will hold up.
Kansas State vs Baylor Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Kansas State and Baylor match up statistically:
Kansas State Offense vs. Baylor Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 78 | 28 | |
| Line Yards | 49 | 72 | |
| Pass Success | 79 | 63 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 46 | 44 |  |
| Havoc | 29 | 34 | |
| Finishing Drives | 18 | 74 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Baylor Offense vs. Kansas State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 16 | 39 | |
| Line Yards | 36 | 111 | |
| Pass Success | 23 | 32 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 24 | 78 | |
| Havoc | 44 | 62 | |
| Finishing Drives | 13 | 19 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 49 | 50 |
| PFF Coverage | 38 | 15 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 80 | 15 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.0 (101) | 27.0 (83) |
| Rush Rate | 60.0% (22) | 60.2% (21) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Kansas State vs Baylor Betting Pick
I like the value on the Wildcats in this matchup, especially getting a few points. As mentioned earlier, Kansas State has been great in two prior bounce-back spots this season.
With plenty still to play for in the Big 12, I think you'll see Chris Klieman have his team fully focused for this road test.
Kansas State has the superior defense in this matchup, and in a game that should feature plenty of scoring, I'm more confident in the Wildcats being able to get some timely stops.
Back KSU to cover this number on the road. Every man a Wildcat.
