We have a great matchup in what is now the Big 12 After Dark.
The No. 13 ranked Kansas State Wildcats (3-0) will take on the BYU Cougars (3-0) under the lights at LaVell Edwards Stadium.
The Kansas State Wildcats have opened up the season 3-0 and look to be genuine contenders for the Big 12 title. They passed their first conference test with flying colors in a 31-7 win over Arizona.
However, they'll have another tough assignment with the BYU Cougars. The Cougars also come into this matchup undefeated and proved that they can't be taken lightly after their upset win over SMU on the road.
Despite BYU proving their worth, the Wildcats are still touchdown favorites on the road. Kansas State enters as a -6.5 favorite, while the over/under sits at 48.
Let's dive into my Kansas State vs BYU prediction and college football picks for Saturday, Sept. 21 to see which side of the spread you should be on.
Kansas State vs BYU Prediction
I'm backing the home team and taking the Cougars at +6.5.
- BYU vs Kansas Pick: BYU +6.5
Kansas State vs BYU Odds
| Kansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 48.5 -109 / -110 | -237 |
| BYU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 48.5 -109 / -110 | +192 |
- Kansas State vs. BYU Point Spread: Kansas State -6.5 (-110) · BYU +6.5 (-110)
- Kansas State vs. BYU Total: Over/Under 48.5
- Kansas State vs. BYU Moneyline: Kansas State -237 · BYU +192
Kansas State vs BYU Preview
Kansas State Wildcats Betting Preview: Working Through Third-Down Conversions
The Kansas State Wildcats have established the run game with authority this season. Through three games, they have run the ball over 60% of the time and have averaged 6.1 yards per rush.
That efficiency puts them at 11th in the country nationally, and they will be a test for the BYU defense. The Cougars have excelled at stopping the run, holding their opposition to just 2.5 yards per carry.
However, a closer look shows the Wildcats will outmatch them in the trenches. Kansas State ranks 16th nationally in Offensive Line Yards, while BYU ranks 55th in Defensive Line Yards.
The Wildcats' big issue in this matchup will be converting on third through the air. We should expect BYU to load the box to slow the run game, but the BYU secondary has been solid.
The Cougars rank fourth in opponent completion percentage allowed and sixth in yards per pass allowed. If the Wildcats can run the ball on early downs, their offense won't be on the field much in this matchup.
BYU Cougars Betting Preview: Secondary Needs To Step Up
The BYU Cougars have been a pleasant surprise, as they have looked excellent on both sides of the ball. However, they have two big question marks entering this contest.
Both starting running backs, LJ Martin and Folau Ropati, are questionable for this game.
Their dynamic duo at running back has been key to their success, and they'll be needed against a K-State defense that is 11th in defensive Line Yards and 22nd in Rush Success Rate allowed.
If one or both of them are out, the game will rest on the arm of quarterback Jake Retzlaff. However, there is some upside to Retzlaff and this passing attack.
Retzlaff has the Cougars throwing the ball with above-average success this season, and the Wildcats' secondary has not looked great through three games. Kansas State ranks 104th in yards per pass allowed, 74th in opponent completion percentage, and 82nd in PFF's coverage grading.
This game's plan may have to be more pass-heavy than the Cougars would like, but it is also their best avenue for success.
Kansas State vs BYU Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Kansas State and BYU match up statistically:
Kansas State Offense vs. BYU Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 24 | 47 | |
| Line Yards | 16 | 55 | |
| Pass Success | 77 | 8 | |
| Havoc | 32 | 35 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 53 | 54 | |
| Quality Drives | 43 | 47 | |
BYU Offense vs. Kansas State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 89 | 22 | |
| Line Yards | 66 | 11 | |
| Pass Success | 55 | 102 | |
| Havoc | 57 | 31 | |
| Finishing Drives | 96 | 17 | |
| Quality Drives | 75 | 42 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 9 | 83 |
| PFF Coverage | 82 | 31 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 39 | 46 |
| Middle 8 | 75 | 33 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.1 (74) | 29.9 (111) |
| Rush Rate | 60% (32) | 53% (58) |
Kansas State vs BYU Betting Pick & Prediction
This spread has hovered around a touchdown all week long. It has risen to +7.5 and has been as low as +6 in some spots.
I like the Cougars but wouldn't play it lower than +6. They can move the ball through the air and should earn some stops if they limit the rushing attack.
Back the home 'dog on Saturday night.
Pick: BYU +6.5 · Play to +6
How to Watch Kansas State vs BYU Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo, UT |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 21 |
| Kickoff Time: | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
Kansas State vs BYU Betting Trends
- Kansas State is 3-0 SU but 1-2 ATS.
- BYU is 3-0 SU and ATS.
Kansas State vs BYU Weather
