The 18th ranked Kansas State Wildcats (4-1, 1-1 Big 12) head to Boulder to take on the Colorado Buffaloes (4-1, 2-0) in a late-night Big 12 battle on Saturday, Oct. 12. The game is set to kick off at 10:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.
A new dimension has created a different outlook for Colorado.
A 48-21 victory over UCF in Week 5 sent the Buffaloes to the top of the Big 12 standings with the second half of the schedule on deck.
Head coach Deion Sanders will find out where Colorado stands when going against a program that sets the bar in the Big 12 in Kansas State.
Head coach Chris Klieman doesn't have near the same level of comfort in the conference standings as his Week 7 opponent. Kansas State was demolished in Week 4 during a road trip to Provo, losing to BYU, 38-9.
Klieman's squad bounced back with a 42-20 rout of Oklahoma State before the bye week, creating this colossal conference showdown at Folsom Field.
Kansas State enters as a -3.5 favorite with a total of 56.5.
Let's break down my Kansas State vs. Colorado predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 12.
Kansas State Wildcats vs Colorado Buffaloes Pick
- Kansas State vs Colorado Prediction: Over 56.5
My Colorado vs Kansas State best bet is on the over, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Kansas State vs Colorado Odds, Betting Line, Spread
| Kansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -115 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | -155 |
| Colorado Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -105 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | +135 |
- Kansas State vs Colorado Spread: Kansas State -3 (-115)
- Kansas State vs Colorado Over/Under: 55.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Kansas State vs Colorado Moneyline: Kansas State ML -155 · Colorado ML +135
Kansas State vs Colorado Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | Folsom Field, Boulder, CO |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 12 |
| Kickoff Time: | 10:15 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
The Kansas State Wildcats play the Colorado Buffaloes on Saturday, Oct. 12 in Boulder at 10:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Kansas State vs Colorado College Football Week 7 Preview
Kansas State Wildcats Betting Preview
Klieman relayed the concerns of watching Colorado on tape, specifically how to contain and force the opposing quarterback into mistakes.
Kansas State has been impuissant when it comes to Defensive Havoc, ranking in the middle of all FBS teams. The Wildcats have been unable to disrupt opponent passing attempts through pass breakups, ranking 111th in passes defensed.
Defensive coordinator Joe Klanderman runs a heavy amount of quarters coverage, a scheme designed to create four deep zones to combat pass-heavy offenses. Kansas State has middling efficiency using the coverage, ranking 91st per PFF grading.
While the pass defense has been soft, Kansas State has been terrific against the rush. The 3-3-5 scheme had success stopping Ollie Gordon, stuffing Oklahoma State above the national average while allowing just two explosive runs.
Defending the zone read has had mixed results, with more success against outside zone than inside zone.
If there's a positive that has carried the Kansas State defense it's a top-15 rank in Finishing Drives that derives from allowing more field goals than touchdowns in the red zone.
Kansas State continues to be a high rush explosive offense, led by quarterback Avery Johnson and running back DJ Giddens.
Offensive coordinator Conor Riley was promoted this past offseason, keeping the multi-run concept offensive play calling intact. Through five games, the Wildcats have run at least 25 plays of inside zone, power, counter and man concepts.
Johnson has been one of the best running quarterbacks in the conference, particularly in designed rush attempts that have produced 220 yards and five explosives. Johnson is at his most dangerous when targets aren't available and he leaves the pocket.
Avery Johnson put on a show in Manhattan 🌟
✅ 259 passing yards
✅ 60 rushing yards
✅ 5 total TDs#Big12FB | #KStateFBpic.twitter.com/agglEi68pj— Big 12 Studios (@big12studios) September 28, 2024
Johnson has struggled in the passing game, generating a turnover-worthy play in every game this season.
The Kansas State offensive line has allowed 46 pressures on 142 dropbacks, leading Johnson to no big-time throws and four turnover-worthy plays.
Colorado Buffaloes Betting Preview
The biggest surprise of Colorado's season came via a rushing attack that led the way in an upset victory in Orlando.
Across 27 rushing attempts, the Buffaloes had a 60% Success Rate and averaged 5.2 yards per play against a UCF team that ranks third nationally in Defensive Rushing Success Rate.
Isaiah Augustave generated an average of 10 yards per carry through four inside zone read attempts. Running backs Dallan Hayden and Micah Welch each logged double-digit rushing attempts.
The rushing attack is a new development for Colorado, but this is still a pass-first team led by quarterback Shedeur Sanders.
SHEPPARD WITH THE DIVING TD CATCH 😱
Shedeur Sanders throws a DIME and Will Sheppard hauls it in for @CUBuffsFootball 🎯 pic.twitter.com/PshaYRmzHu
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) September 28, 2024
A 60% pass rate and a low rank in efficiency and Quality Drives creates plenty of three-and-outs for Colorado's offense.
The advanced numbers show middling ranks in passing analytics, but the numbers for Sanders are some of the best in the nation. The soon-to-be NFL Draft pick has 15 big-time throws and has lowered his turnover-worthy play rate to less than 1%.
Heisman candidate Travis Hunter continues to be the biggest weapon for Sanders, taking in the most targets (54) and the highest yards per route run (2.6).
LaJohntay Wester has been critical out of the slot in providing first downs. More importantly, Wester and Hunter have combined to catch 7-of-11 targets that were contested by opposing secondaries.
The offensive rushing attack isn't the only area in which Colorado has improved.
The defense has become one of the best at keeping opponents from scoring and boasts one of the highest tackling grades in the nation.
The Buffaloes still allow plenty of explosives and struggle to create a pass rush, but opponents are averaging just 2.7 points in 30 possessions in extended red zone.
Defensive coordinator Robert Livingston has preached fundamentals, as Colorado is the 10th-best defense in creating "stops" — a PFF metric that grades a complete failure by the offense.
Colorado vs Kansas State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Colorado and Kansas State match up statistically:
Kansas State Offense vs. Colorado Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 13 | 55 | |
| Line Yards | 9 | 39 | |
| Pass Success | 57 | 42 | |
| Havoc | 20 | 30 | |
| Finishing Drives | 50 | 12 | |
| Quality Drives | 77 | 41 | |
Colorado Offense vs. Kansas State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 40 | 13 | |
| Line Yards | 98 | 11 | |
| Pass Success | 55 | 88 | |
| Havoc | 103 | 70 | |
| Finishing Drives | 54 | 14 | |
| Quality Drives | 79 | 30 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 11 | 14 |
| PFF Coverage | 91 | 30 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 36 | 113 |
| Middle 8 | 102 | 29 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.8 (76) | 25.9 (39) |
| Rush Rate | 58% (33) | 40% (132) |
How to Bet My Kansas State vs Colorado Prediction
Will Kansas State make any adjustments after losing in a hostile Big 12 prime-time environment against BYU? The Wildcats uncharacteristically turned the ball over and played sloppy special teams but now travel to Boulder off a bye week.
The biggest issue for Kansas State is the "bend-don't-break" nature of its defense against a Colorado offense that relies on busted plays to create scores.
The Buffaloes attacked UCF with inside zone read, a run concept Kansas State has had minimal success defending.
Ultimately, Kansas State has struggled to defend the slot, as Marques Sigle has failed to create a pass breakup in 159 coverage snaps. Cornerbacks Jacob Parrish and Keenan Garber will be responsible for Hunter but have allowed 34-of-51 targets to be caught.
Kansas State will counter with a heavy rush attack that uses multiple run concepts. There's one particular run concept the Buffaloes have struggled with, as man blocking has allowed opponents to produce a 60% Success Rate and a high number of explosives.
The Wildcats are a top-20 rush offense in terms of explosives and efficiency. There may be relief for Johnson and the passing attack against Colorado, as the Buffaloes are 116th in pass-rush grading.
Both offenses have schematic advantages to put the ball into scoring position. Kansas State should see no resistance with a ground attack using run concepts that have gashed Colorado. Meanwhile, Sanders' aerial attack won't face much of a defense.
Pick: Over 56.5 · First-Half Over 27.5
Colorado vs Kansas State Betting Trends
- Kansas State has landed 79% of the tickets and 92% of the money.
- The over has taken 85% of the bets while generating 99% of the money.
Kansas State vs Colorado Weather
