The Kansas State Wildcats (5-1, 2-1 Big 12) will look to build off its late 31-28 win over Colorado when it travels to Morgantown to take on the West Virginia Mountaineers (3-3, 2-1).
Quarterback Avery Johnson came up big on the Wildcats' final drive in their latest win, with a couple of big throws that won them the game and allowed the Wildcats to move to 5-1 on the season.
The Big 12 is in complete flux right now with all of the favorites at the beginning of the season having lost one or multiple games.
Kansas State is currently the second favorite behind Iowa State, so a win here would be a big boost, especially with a big rivalry game against Kansas coming up next weekend.
West Virginia lost its third game of the season last Saturday to then-No. 11 Iowa State, 28-16, dropping them to 3-3 on the season.
The Mountaineers came into the season with high expectations but have lost all three of their games against ranked opponents. Kansas State came in and throttled West Virginia in Morgantown in 2022, so they will be out for a little bit of revenge Saturday.
Let's make some Kansas State vs. West Virginia predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 18.
Kansas State vs West Virginia Prediction
- Kansas State vs. West Virginia Pick: Over 55
My Kansas State vs. West Virginia best bet is on the over, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Kansas State vs West Virginia Odds
| K State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 55 -110o / -110u | -148 |
| West Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 55 -110o / -110u | +124 |
- Kansas State vs West Virginia Point Spread: Kansas State -3 (-110) · West Virginia +3 (-110)
- Kansas State vs West Virginia Total: Over/Under 55.5
- Kansas State vs West Virginia Moneyline: Kansas State -158 · West Virginia +132
Kansas State vs West Virginia Preview
Kansas State Wildcats Betting Preview: Rushing Attack is the Key
Johnson has been hit or miss this season.
He's had really bad games — like the one at BYU when he threw two picks and averaged 4.6 yards per attempt — and then he's had really good games, like the one against Oklahoma State when he threw for three touchdown passes and also ran for 60 yards.
For the season, he has a PFF passing grade of just 63.8, but he has been improving.
Over the last two weeks, he's averaged over nine yards per attempt because he's being more aggressive throwing the ball deep, which is going to be key against West Virginia's secondary.
The Kansas State offense is built on its rushing attack, and it has a really good running back in DJ Giddens. He's toted the rock 108 times this season and is averaging 7.3 yards per carry. The reason he's so good is because he's incredibly difficult to bring down on first contact, averaging 5.1 yards per carry after contact while forcing 35 missed tackles.
DJ GIDDENS MADE SHILO SANDERS TOUCH EARTH 😳 pic.twitter.com/Nqy6wI1zmY
— ESPN (@espn) October 13, 2024
Giddens also has an outstanding offensive line in front of him that not only is top-30 in terms of PFF pass-blocking grade but also is eighth nationally in Offensive Line Yards.
There's no doubt that Kansas State can stop the run, which is big in this game against West Virginia. Colorado had -29 rushing yards last weekend, and for the season, Kansas State ranks fourth in the country in EPA/Rush Allowed.
That's because they are dominating up front, ranking top-10 in both Defensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
The problem with Kansas State defensively has been its secondary. Shedeur Sanders threw all over it last Saturday night for 388 yards and three touchdowns.
The 'Cats are allowing 8.3 yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks and rank outside the top 100 in EPA/Pass Allowed.
West Virginia Mountaineers Betting Preview: Can They Win in the Passing Game?
West Virginia's offense is also built on its rushing attack, which has been rocking the last few games.
Iowa State has one of the better run defenses in the country, and West Virginia still averaged 4.6 yards per carry and went for almost 150 yards on the ground.
WVU's thunder-and-lightning combination of Jahiem White and CJ Donaldson Jr. has been really effective, with both running backs averaging over 4.5 yards per carry. The two of them, along with quarterback Garrett Greene, have propelled West Virginia 24th nationally in Rushing Success Rate.
They will have a really tough matchup against Kansas State's elite run defense, so the pressure is going to be on Greene to beat Kansas State over the top. He has been a pretty effective passer this season, averaging 8.0 yards per attempt with a 78.1 PFF passing grade.
It's important that West Virginia establishes at least somewhat of a rushing attack in this game because Greene is outstanding in play-action.
The Mountaineers defense is similar to Kansas State in the fact that they can stop the run.
They're allowing just 3.9 yards per attempt and rank 44th in EPA/Rush Allowed. They slowed down Iowa State's rushing attack last weekend at home, holding the Cyclones to only 2.9 yards per carry for the game.
The problem with West Virginia's defense is it has one of the worst secondaries in the Power 4. The Mountaineers rank 128th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and are allowing 9.6 yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks.
Rocco Becht, who's a very average passer, threw for over 10 yards per attempt against this secondary, so Johnson should have a big day.
Kansas State vs West Virginia Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Kansas State and West Virginia match up statistically:
Kansas State Offense vs. West Virginia Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 12 | 46 | |
| Line Yards | 8 | 24 | |
| Pass Success | 59 | 128 | |
| Havoc | 18 | 102 | |
| Finishing Drives | 53 | 115 | |
| Quality Drives | 65 | 74 | |
West Virginia Offense vs. Kansas State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 24 | 8 | |
| Line Yards | 46 | 7 | |
| Pass Success | 47 | 104 | |
| Havoc | 78 | 77 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 18 | 28 | |
| Quality Drives | 17 | 39 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 12 | 6 |
| PFF Coverage | 96 | 129 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 36 | 30 |
| Middle 8 | 82 | 75 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.3 (88) | 27.0 (60) |
| Rush Rate | 59% (33) | 60% (31) |
Kansas State vs West Virginia Pick & Prediction
The biggest problem West Virginia's defense is going to have in this game is defending its own end of the field. The Mountaineers sit outside the top 100 in Finishing Drives Allowed, with their opponents averaging 4.5 points per scoring opportunity.
For Kansas State, this game is going to come down to Johnson's arm.
He's made big improvements over his last two games and will have a great matchup against West Virginia's secondary, which could be without safety Aubrey Burks for this game.
Greene has been an efficient passer and can have the same kind of success that Sanders had last weekend against Kansas State's secondary.
What will be paramount for the Mountaineers is establishing the run early so Greene can get into those play-action situations, where he's averaging 11.6 yards per attempt.
Both teams do run the ball at a high rate, but there are massive advantages through the air for both quarterbacks. I think the total is too low and like the value on the over.
Pick: Over 55
How to Watch Kansas State vs West Virginia Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Milan Puskar Stadium, Morgantown, WV |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 19 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FOX |
Kansas State vs West Virginia Betting Trends
- 87% of the bets and 93% of the money is on Kansas State to cover the spread.
- 40% of the tickets but 81% of the cash is on the over.
- 95% of the bets and 91% of the money on the moneyline is on the Wildcats.
Kansas State vs West Virginia Weather
