The Kansas Jayhawks (3-6, 2-4 Big 12) take on the BYU Cougars (9-0, 6-0) in a late-night Big 12 battle on Saturday. Kickoff is set for 10:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Kansas has really turned it on offensively of late, scoring at least 27 points in each of its last 6 games. That led the Jayhawks to a 45-36 victory over an Iowa State team in contention for the Big 12 title in a game that wasn't as close as the final score indicates.
The Cougars, meanwhile, were very fortunate to remain undefeated with a 22-21 win over Utah in the Holy War last week. The Utes essentially had the game locked up, but a couple of questionable calls from the officials led to BYU kicking a game-winning field goal in the final seconds.
BYU enters as a 3-point favorite with the over/under sitting at 56.5. So, where does the betting value lie?
Let's take a look at my Kansas vs. BYU predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 16.
Check out my
Kansas Jayhawks vs BYU Cougars Prediction, Picks
- Kansas vs. BYU Pick: Kansas +3.5
My BYU vs. Kansas bet is on the Jayhawks to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Kansas vs BYU Odds, Betting Lines, Spread
| Kansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 56 -110o / -110u | +125 |
| BYU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 56 -110o / -110u | -152 |
- Spread: BYU -3
- Over/Under: 56 Total Points
- Kansas vs BYU Moneyline: BYU -152 · Kansas +125
Kansas vs BYU NCAAF Week 12 Preview
I'm going back to the late-night BYU fade this week and once again backing the Jayhawks, who I will likely look to continue betting the rest of the way.
Fortunately, Utah held on for the cover but blew a double-digit lead to keep this Cougar charade going. It was really an ideal result to set up getting over a field goal with a team I'm looking to ride vs. one I'm looking to fade.
It's even possible the Cougars come out a bit emotionally flat after that exhausting win over their in-state Holy War rival. These are just college kids after all.
This really is a matchup of one of the unluckiest teams in the country in Kansas against one of the luckiest in BYU.
It's pretty remarkable that Kansas comes into this game at 3-6, while BYU sits at 9-0 with a similar strength of schedule (Kansas slightly more difficult), yet I have Kansas power-rated above the Cougars.
That's what happens when one team goes 0-5 in one-possession games, while the other goes 4-0 with a pair of improbable walk-off touchdowns at home against two teams that likely won't even make a bowl in Utah and Oklahoma State.
After a slow start to the season, the Kansas offense has been absolutely rolling since the bye week with a now fully healthy Jalon Daniels, who's playing at an incredible level at the moment.
I'm just not sure how the BYU defense will contain Daniels and the dynamic Kansas backfield.
The Cougars really struggle against mobile quarterbacks, which is obviously less than ideal against the Jayhawks, who rank sixth in EPA per Rush and will face a BYU defense that ranks 106th in that department.
That's the biggest mismatch in this game.
My one concern is Kansas' likely loss of starting left tackle Bryce Cabeldue, who suffered an injury late against Iowa State. While Calvin Clements does have some experience, he's nowhere close to the caliber of the elite Cabeldue. If I had to guess, he's probably out.
Although, it's worth noting that BYU starting right tackle Brayden Keim left last week with an injury late against Utah, so he could be missing. It remains to be seen if the Cougars will get starting center Connor Pay back from injury, but he was at least listed on this week's depth chart.
On the other side of the ball, the Kansas defense really struggles against the run, but this is not an elite BYU ground game by any stretch — although it's definitely more dynamic with a healthy LJ Martin.
As a result, the Jayhawks can hold their own on early downs, forcing the erratic Jake Retzlaff into known passing situations against a pair of excellent cornerbacks in Mello Dotson and Cobee Bryant.
The turnovers will eventually start to hurt Retzlaff, who has 18 touchdowns to just seven interceptions despite a 1:1 Big-Time Throw-to-Turnover-Worthy Play ratio 0f 12:12.
BYU vs Kansas Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how BYU and Kansas match up statistically:
Kansas Offense vs. BYU Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 6 | 83 | |
| Line Yards | 3 | 90 | |
| Pass Success | 25 | 18 | |
| Havoc | 21 | 54 | |
| Finishing Drives | 4 | 78 | |
| Quality Drives | 62 | 40 | |
BYU Offense vs. Kansas Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 66 | 100 | |
| Line Yards | 58 | 119 | |
| Pass Success | 62 | 74 | |
| Havoc | 60 | 39 | |
| Finishing Drives | 56 | 68 | |
| Quality Drives | 31 | 95 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 96 | 67 |
| PFF Coverage | 80 | 48 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 81 | 18 |
| Middle 8 | 105 | 17 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.8 (108) | 29.3 (117) |
| Rush Rate | 58% (30) | 54% (56) |
How to Make My Kansas vs BYU Best Bet
I'm going to continue to fade BYU, which is just begging for some negative regression.
On the season, BYU has a +10 turnover margin, which has been boosted by a 70% fumble recovery rate and Retzlaff's good fortune.
We saw both last week against the Utes on two Retzlaff fumbles that would've likely ended the game but somehow bounced right back into his hands. The Cougars are also an unsustainable 16-for-20 on fourth downs this season.
Lastly, I give Kansas a substantial coaching edge in this particular matchup. The voodoo magic can't last forever — or at least that's what I tell myself. Even if it does, let's just hope it continues by one or two points each week.
Plus, against FBS foes, BYU head coach Kalani Sitake has gone just 8-15 ATS (34.8%) as a home favorite of three or more points, including 0-9 over his past nine in this role.
For what it's worth, I project this spread closer to Kansas +1.5, so I'll happily take the road 'dog at over a field goal against a BYU team that's bound to come back to earth.
Pick: Kansas +3.5 or Better
Kansas vs BYU Channel, How to Watch, Streaming, Location Start Time
| Location: | LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo, UT |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 16 |
| Kickoff Time: | 10:15 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
Kansas heads to Provo on Saturday to take on BYU at 10:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.
BYU vs Kansas Betting Trends to Know
BYU vs Kansas Weather Forecast
