Kent State vs. Wyoming Odds
| Kent State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 60.5 -122o / -110u | +130 |
| Wyoming Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -112 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | -160 |
Kent State and Wyoming make the trip to chilly Boise, Idaho, for the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl on Tuesday afternoon.
The Golden Flashes' regular season ended in heartbreak in the MAC Championship, losing to Northern Illinois as 4.5-point favorites. However, they boast a dynamic offense that's capable of putting 50 points on the board against an average defense. We'll see if that offense shows up on the blue turf on Tuesday afternoon.
Wyoming ended the season in terrible fashion, getting blown out at home by Hawaii, 38-14. The Cowboys started off the season red-hot, winning their first four games, including a 45-12 win over another MAC opponent in Ball State.
However, they lost six of their remaining eight games, including some terrible losses to New Mexico and San Jose State. We'll see if their rush-heavy attack will be able to move the ball against a poor Kent State run defense.
Kent State Golden Flashes
Golden Flashes Offense
Kent State may have lost the MAC Championship and put up a dud of a performance offensively, but its offense was still incredibly efficient this season. The Golden Flashes averaged 6.0 yards per play and ranked fifth in the country in Success Rate.
The main reason why Kent State was so efficient was because of its ground game behind Marquez Cooper, who ran for over 1,000 yards this season and averaged 5.0 yards per rush.
Marquez Cooper (@quez__15) makes it a 50 🍔! He takes it 36 yards to the house to make it 52-40 with 7:17 to go in the 4th on ESPN2 !#FlashFAST⚡ | #BeTheAlpha🦅 pic.twitter.com/ZYPNtGC1T1
— Kent State Football (@KentStFootball) November 4, 2021
That allowed Kent State to rank third in Rushing Success Rate and fifth in Offensive Line Yards. It will have a good matchup against Wyoming because the Cowboys' run defense is their biggest weakness on that side of the ball.
Dustin Crum had a good season throwing the ball, averaging 8.2 yards per attempt, and put up an 81.3 PFF passing grade. He also recorded a whopping 26 big-time throws and only eight turnover-worthy plays.
However, Wyoming has the 10th-best coverage grade in the country, so Kent State may be better off sticking to the ground game.
Golden Flashes Defense
The reason Kent State didn't win the MAC and ultimately finished the season at 7-5 was because of its defense. Kent State allowed 6.1 yards per play, which ranked 105th in college football. The unit also came in at 115th in Success Rate Allowed.
Kent State's run defense was embarrassing this season, ranking outside the top 100 in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, rushing explosiveness allowed, and Offensive Line Yards. So, going up against a rush-heavy attack like Wyoming is a nightmare for the Golden Flashes.
The Kent State secondary was horrendous this season, ranking 118th in Passing Success Rate Allowed, 114th in EPA/Pass allowed, and 81st in terms of a coverage grade, per PFF.
Wyoming Cowboys
Cowboys Offense
Wyoming's offense this season was pretty average and not explosive whatsoever, coming in at 66th in Success Rate but 114th in big plays.
The Pokes feature a very rush-heavy offense, as they carried the rock 61.6% of the time this season. It was very successful in doing so, averaging 4.9 yards per carry while ranking 35th in EPA/Rush.
Xazavian Valladay had a fantastic season running the ball, putting up 190 carries and averaging 5.2 yards per carry. He's a great power runner with 690 yards after contact this season, which was top-30 in college football, per PFF.
HE IS GONE 💥
9️⃣8️⃣ YARDS FOR 6️⃣ pic.twitter.com/qyFEf5SnuD
— Wyoming Cowboy Football (@wyo_football) November 21, 2021
Wyoming quarterback Sean Chambers wasn't effective in throwing the ball at all when he was on the field this season, averaging 6.4 yards per attempt on only 177 pass attempts.
Levi Williams took over as the starting quarterback in October, and both he and Chambers saw time in the regular-season finale against the Rainbow Warriors.
Given how bad Kent State's secondary is, either signal-caller may be asked to throw a little more often on Tuesday.
Cowboys Defense
The Cowboys' defense was up-and-down this season. They had highs, like holding Utah State to 17 points, and lows like giving up 43 points to Northern Illinois.
Wyoming finished the season ranking 48th in Success Rate Allowed and 41st in EPA/Play allowed.
Wyoming's rush defense has been terrible this season, allowing 4.5 yards per carry. The Cowboys also ranked outside the top 70 in EPA/Rush allowed, Defensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate. That's really bad news against a Kent State rushing offense that finished top-10 in many rushing metrics.
Special teams were also a problem for the Cowboys this season, as they ranked 125th, per SP+, and had the worst average starting position on defense nationally.
Wyoming also did a horrible job at turning opponents over, as it ranked 115th in Havoc this season.
Kent State vs. Wyoming Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Kent State and Wyoming match up statistically:
Kent State Offense vs. Wyoming Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 3 | 62 | |
| Line Yards | 5 | 94 | |
| Pass Success | 77 | 43 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 50 | 56 | |
| Big Play | 14 | 16 |  |
| Havoc | 66 | 115 | |
| Finishing Drives | 85 | 25 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Wyoming Offense vs. Kent State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 42 | 109 | |
| Line Yards | 52 | 109 | |
| Pass Success | 99 | 118 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 28 | 103 | |
| Big Play | 114 | 94 | |
| Havoc | 39 | 101 | |
| Finishing Drives | 84 | 115 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 78 | 80 |
| Coverage | 81 | 10 |
| Middle 8 | 56 | — |
| SP+ Special Teams | 110 | 125 |
| Plays per Minute | 3 | 94 |
| Rush Rate | 61.3% (20) | 63.1% (12) |
Kent State vs. Wyoming Betting Pick
It's actually going to be a pretty nice day for late December in Boise at 35 degrees with very light winds. Since both of these teams are used to the cold, the weather should not be a factor in this game.
With the weather not being a factor and the great matchup for both rush offenses — combined with Kent State playing at one of the fastest tempos in the country (third in plays per minute) — I am expecting a higher-scoring game.
I have 65.2 points projected for the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl, so based on that, there's a little value on over 59 points or better.
