Kentucky Wildcats vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Odds
| Kentucky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11 -105 | 47 -110 / -110 | +360 |
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11 -115 | 47 -110 / -110 | -480 |
Why You Should Bet Alabama
I’ve got bad news for everybody rooting for the fall of the Roman Empire.
Alabama might win the National Championship.
The declaration of the end of the dynasty might have been premature. After an early loss to Texas, Alabama has rattled off seven consecutive victories and continues to look better each week. With a win this week against Kentucky, Alabama will win the West division and secure a spot in the SEC Championship.
Just when everybody started to write off the Crimson Tide, quarterback Jalen Milroe took a massive step forward and has quickly become one of the best quarterbacks in the country.
Milroe has thrown 13 touchdown passes to just five interceptions and has become one of college football's most lethal big-play threats. Milroe is second in the country in YPA (10.5) with a 14.1 aDOT.
23.4% of Milroe’s passes have been at least 20 yards down the field, and he has connected for 10 touchdowns to just one interception on those throws. He boasts PFF's second-highest deep passing grade, trailing only Jayden Daniels.
Milroe's lethal scrambling ability helps him take the top off the defense. Opponents must respect his legs, or he will torch them. That happened last week, with Milroe scrambling for 155 yards and four touchdowns against LSU.
Alabama ranks 18th nationally in Explosiveness and eighth in Passing Explosiveness.
Conversely, the Wildcats defense ranks 112th in Pass Success Rate allowed and 53rd in PFF's coverage grades.
Sure, they have done an excellent job at preventing big plays, but they've only played two above-average quarterbacks. Brady Cook and Missouri scored 38 points on the Cats and won by three scores, while Georgia hung 51 behind Carson Beck's 435-yard, five-touchdown performance.
If Milroe keeps playing like he has been, and this defense continues to dominate, the Crimson Tide are one of the most dangerous teams in the country.
I expect Kentucky to realize that the hard way on Saturday.
Why You Should Bet Kentucky
This is a rough spot for Alabama. The Tide are heading on the road for a noon tip after back-to-back physical home victories over ranked opponents.
I think they’ll come out a little sleepy, especially against a Mark Stoops-led defense built in a lab to stop this version of the Alabama attack.
Jalen Milroe’s Tide can’t move the ball consistently. Their ground game and short-passing game are ineffective and inconsistent, so they get stuck behind the sticks in Standard Downs – Alabama is 64th in Standard Downs Success Rate and 62nd in Rush Success Rate.
Milroe’s deep ball and legs are electric, so the Tide are elite in Passing Downs – first in Passing Downs Explosiveness. But Milroe has completed 55% of his passes between 10 and 19 yards for two touchdowns and three picks, and lead back Jase McClellan is averaging 4.5 yards per carry.
Unfortunately for them, Kentucky plays a zone-heavy defense that excels at preventing big plays and containing mobile quarterbacks.
The Wildcats are 11th nationally in Explosiveness allowed, including eighth in Passing Explosiveness allowed. They’ve also held their five opposing mobile quarterbacks to 186 yards on 40 attempts combined.
Kentucky’s overall statistics are poor, but that’s because the Cats struggle at the point of attack and with covering underneath routes. But Alabama ain’t gonna do that.
I’m not uber-high on the Kentucky offense, but a fully healthy Devin Leary helps a ton.
Either way, I expect Stoops’ defense to muck this game up enough to keep the final score within single digits, especially considering the matchup and the tough schedule spot.
Crimson Tide Refutation
Ianniello: I wanted to start my argument by highlighting Milroe because his development elevates Alabama into a National Championship contender.
But let’s not get it twisted: the Crimson Tide defense will win and cover this game.
This defense is elite and one of the best units in the country. Alabama ranks ninth nationally in Success Rate allowed, allowing only 4.9 yards per play. Only two teams have scored more than 21 points against the Tide this year.
From front to back, Alabama’s defense is loaded with elite talent, with top-16 national ranks in Pass Success Rate allowed and Rush Success Rate allowed.
Up front, they rank eighth naturally in pressure grade. Dallas Turner and Chris Braswell have wreaked havoc on opponents. In the middle, Alabama is ninth in tackling, denying opponents consistent drives.
On the back end, the Tide are third nationally in PFF's coverage grades. They're tremendous against the pass with star cornerbacks Kool-Aid McKinstry and Terrion Arnold.
McKinstry might be the first defender picked in the draft, but true freshman Caleb Downs might already be the best defensive player in the country. Downs leads Alabama with 76 tackles from his safety position, has two interceptions, and has an 88.7 coverage grade. He is an absolute stud and the next in line on the elite 'Bama defensive backs list.
This is an excellent matchup for the Alabama defense to exploit. Kentucky’s offense Is highly one-dimensional. They are just 79th in Success rate and struggle to move the ball consistently. The entire offense has been Ray Davis breaking long runs.
I’m sure Davis will be able to break a few, as that has been an area of weakness for the Tide. But if you want to put all your eggs in the basket of a few long runs against an Alabama defense getting you the cover, be my guest.
Wildcats Refutation
McGrath: Wow! You say Alabama is going to win the natty? Everybody is buying back in on the Roman Empire?
What a perfect time to fade them. It looks like you’re saying we’ve reached the peak of the market on the Tide.
Our Action PRO model thinks so, projecting the ‘Cats as an eight-point ‘dog and giving us some value at the current +11 number.
Everything you wrote about Milroe is essentially neutralized in this matchup. He can’t, and won’t, take the top off the Kentucky defense, and he can’t, and won’t, be able to scramble around the Kentucky zone.
You’re right that Beck and Cook lit up Kentucky, but those two can actually exploit Kentucky’s vulnerability in the middle-underneath part of the field. Cook has an 83.9 PFF passing grade on throws between 10 and 19 yards, while Beck checks in with a 91.1 grade. Milroe’s grade on those throws is 51.3, which ranks 143rd among 166 qualified FBS quarterbacks.
Also, you can always count on at least one interception from Milroe when he misreads the zone. He has five interceptions and eight turnover-worthy throws this year, and the ever-opportunistic Wildcat defense already has seven interceptions in SEC play, second to only Ole Miss.
Watching Milroe dominate LSU was awesome, but we can throw that game away due to LSU’s useless defense – not to mention the Tigers were shorthanded last week, missing two of their top corners.
Milroe is in for a rude wake-up call against stiffer competition.
Crimson Tide Rebuttal
Ianniello: Beck and Cook might be more efficient than Milroe in the mid-range passing game. But they could also pick up big plays against the Kentucky zone.
Beck had an ADOT of 10.4 against the Wildcats, his second-highest single-game mark of the season. He was 5-for-10 with two touchdowns on throws 20+ yards down the field.
Cook only attempted four deep passes against Kentucky, but his one completion was for a touchdown.
Even Graham Mertz was 2-for-3 with a touchdown on deep shots against the 'Cats.
While Tanner doesn’t think Milroe will have success, I don’t think Leary will be able to do anything against this Alabama defense. If Milroe’s five interceptions and eight turnover-worthy plays are problematic, what would you call Leary’s seven picks and 13 turnover-worthy plays?
Leary is completing just 57% of his passes this season for 7.5 yards per attempt and has more turnover-worthy plays than big-time throws. He has the worst completion percentage in the SEC, the second most turnovers, and has been the worst deep-ball passer in the conference, hitting only 27.3% of his 20-plus-yard attempts.
Oh, and Leary didn’t play the fourth quarter last week after suffering a shoulder injury. He is expected to play Saturday but may not be 100% healthy. That is a problem for a quarterback who hasn’t been very good at full strength.
Milroe might be in for a rude wake-up call against stiffer competition, like the SEC Championship game, but the 'Cats are not that stiff.
Wildcats Rebuttal
McGrath: I won’t sugarcoat it: Kentucky will have a tough time exploiting the Alabama defense.
That said, the Kentucky offense was one-dimensional because Leary was hurt – dealing with issues from his pectoral injury last season – and the Kentucky wide receivers dropped everything – 19 drops on Leary passes, 19th-most among qualified passers.
So, Davis had to try to make plays against stacked boxes, which he did admirably.
But I think Leary is healthy again. He looks healthy again. He carved up Tennessee’s defense for 370 yards and two scores at 9.5 YPA.
He may have missed the fourth quarter of last week’s game, but Leary himself says he’s 100%.
If he’s 100% healthy, I think the Kentucky offense is a tad undervalued. Any pressure he can take off Davis will prove massive for this Kentucky offense.
Either way, considering I love the matchup for Kentucky’s defense, I think this could turn into a low-scoring grinder. That type of game script heavily favors a double-digit ‘dog.
The Wildcats may only need Davis to break one big run to stay within the number for 60 minutes.
Ianniello: Bet Alabama -10.5
A bet on Kentucky is mainly betting on an Alabama letdown.
But I’m not buying it. This is a Nick Saban-led team fighting to get back into the SEC Championship game and possibly the College Football Playoff. They know they can’t take their foot off the gas.
Also, I wouldn’t call their last two games back-to-back physical games. Tennessee stinks, and LSU’s defense doesn’t tackle.
The Tide have covered five of their last six games and will clinch a spot in the conference title game with a win. You know they want to wrap that up before the Iron Bowl. And with Chattanooga next week, they don’t have to worry about a look-ahead spot.
Milroe only continues to get better, playing with plenty of confidence. And this Alabama defense is going to torture Leary and the Kentucky offense.
Mark Stoops has only faced Saban thrice since taking over at Kentucky, and Alabama has outscored them 145-16. Back this one to be a double-digit victory.
Roll Tide!
Pick: Alabama -10.5
McGrath: Bet Kentucky +10.5
Alabama’s in a tough spot against a defense that’s perfectly suited to stop them.
You’ve watched the Tide this season and know how inconsistent they can be. Milroe doesn’t make the easy plays, and the offensive line has crumbled at times this year.
Well, after an incredible game against a worthless defense, it’s time for Milroe and ‘Bama to have a down game. I’m thinking interceptions, misfires, lousy execution, etc.
And Nick Saban doesn’t exactly thrive in these environments. Alabama is 4-8 ATS as a favorite in true road games over the past three seasons.
Kentucky’s defense will keep the ‘Cats hanging around. I fully expect this game to finish in the single digits.
