Kentucky vs Florida Prediction, Pick, Odds for Saturday, October 19

The Kentucky Wildcats take on the Florida Gators at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 19, at 7:45 p.m. ET on SEC Network.

Kentucky enters this Week 8 contest as a 1.5-point favorite on the spread, while the over/under sits at 42.5

So, where's the betting value here? Let's dive into my Kentucky vs Florida predictions and college football picks for Saturday's Week 8 NCAAF matchup below.

Kentucky vs Florida Prediction

My Kentucky vs Florida best bet is on the Wildcats to win outright, and I will be betting their moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Saturday, Oct. 19

7:45 p.m. ET

SEC Network

Kentucky Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-1.5 -110	42.5 -110o / -110u	-122

Florida Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+1.5 -110	42.5 -110o / -110u	+102

Odds via DraftKings . Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.

• Kentucky vs Florida Point Spread: Kentucky -1.5 (-110) · Florida +1.5 (-110)
• Kentucky vs Florida Total: Over/Under 42.5
• Kentucky vs Florida Moneyline: Kentucky -122 · Florida +102

Kentucky vs Florida Preview

Kentucky Wildcats Betting Preview: Bounce-Back Spot

This season has been a tale of two seasons for Kentucky’s football program. Kentucky has been downright dominant in its wins, blanking Southern Miss 31-0 in its opening contest and then blowing out Ohio 41-6.

The Wildcats' most impressive win came on the road against Ole Miss, where Brock Vandagriff threw for 243 yards en route to a three-point upset victory.

But it has not always been smooth sailing, as the Wildcats’ record sits at 3-3 on the year, and some of their losses have been downright baffling. Outside of a near-upset victory against Georgia, the 'Cats have been disastrous in their other two losses, including a 25-point blowout loss to South Carolina, in which they mustered just six points.

Last week, they lost at home to Vanderbilt, struggling to contain the dynamic Diego Pavia’s improvisational moments in key spots.

Kentucky’s best performances have come in response to their losses this year. After the South Carolina blowout, they took Georgia to the wire and pulled the upset over Ole Miss.

Brock Vandagriff has often struggled, but it hasn’t mattered much when the Wildcats get their stellar rushing attack going. On the season, Kentucky ranks top 15 nationally in Rush Success Rate. That’s a great matchup against a Florida defense that ranks outside the top 90 in EPA per Rush and Rush Success Rate allowed.

Defensively, Kentucky is at its best against opposing rushing attacks. Nobody has found success on the ground against Kentucky this year, and with a key injury to the Florida offense, it is hard to see that changing this week.

Florida Gators Betting Preview: Mertz Out, Lagway In

Florida’s usual starting quarterback, Graham Mertz, is out for the season following an ACL injury, ending Florida’s two-quarterback timeshare.

This may mean good things for the Gators in the long term, but DJ Lagway still has a long way to go.

Lagway was remarkable against Samford, finishing with 456 yards passing on 25 attempts.

But across five other matchups against higher-level competition, Lagway has completed just 29 passes on 47 attempts for 300 yards. But most importantly, he has thrown four interceptions to just two touchdowns.

Lagway stepped in on the road against Tennessee last week, and while he did give the Gators a chance to win, he also left some big plays out there. He completed nine of 17 passes for 98 yards, one touchdown and a pick.

Florida would be wise to lean into their run game to help keep the pressure off of Lagway’s shoulders here, but that will be easier said than done. The Gators' best running back has been Montrell Johnson, averaging 5.3 yards per carry on the year.

Johnson was stellar against Tennessee, running 12 times for 85 yards, but against the only other daunting front seven that Florida has faced this year, Johnson was shut down. In September, he ran seven times for -7 yards in Florida’s loss to Texas A&M.

This is the toughest defense Lagway and Johnson have faced yet this season, and it is asking a lot for a freshman quarterback to make enough winning plays against Kentucky’s defensive front. But that is precisely what Florida will need to have happen to have a chance to win here, as Kentucky’s defense is simply too good against the run.

Kentucky vs Florida

Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Kentucky and Florida match up statistically:

Kentucky Offense vs. Florida Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	13	109
Line Yards	61	84
Pass Success	120	73
Havoc	113	75
Finishing Drives	77	52
Quality Drives	36	80

Florida Offense vs. Kentucky Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	37	42
Line Yards	82	10
Pass Success	27	67
Havoc	90	16
Finishing Drives	40	69
Quality Drives	99	20

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	63	88
PFF Coverage	71	52
Special Teams SP+	18	5
Middle 8	24	68
Seconds per Play	29.5 (118)	27.7 (75)
Rush Rate	62% (28)	53% (61)

Kentucky vs Florida Pick & Prediction

This is an excellent buy-low spot on a dominant Kentucky defense.

The Wildcats have only allowed more than 20 points once this season and even held Georgia to Ole and Ole Miss to 17.

Florida head coach Billy Napier has been horrible against Kentucky, going 0-2 ATS in two contests and failing to cover by over 16 points per game.

Take the Wildcats on the moneyline, or bet the spread up to -2.5.

Pick: Kentucky ML (-122, DraftKings)

Kentucky vs Florida will be played at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainseville, Florida, on Saturday, Oct. 19 at 7:45 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on SEC Network.